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For an exercise in how wrong we can be, here's Steve Yegge two years ago telling us to prepare to speak Mandarin because China is going to reign supreme and the

For an exercise in how wrong we can be, here's Steve Yegge two years ago telling us to prepare to speak Mandarin because China is going to reign supreme and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Steve deleted the article but the internet remembers. https://archive.vn/bC1Ns https://archive.vn/bC1Ns

reducesuffering 3y ago
I went in fully wanting you to be right, but Yegge has 90% good points there, and idk why he removed it. It’s possible there was a bit too much “running of his mouth” like talking about the CEO annual meetup at BillG house. China does have serious issues with its real estate economy and fertility. But the US also got through the grave issues of 2008, and China still has 1.4b people who take rigorous education a lot more seriously than many in America. And they will have far more people than us in the foreseeable future too. Do not count China out, they are a “hurricane,” are dangerously aimed at Taiwan, but with better understanding we can hopefully all defuse the situation amicably.
elfbargpt 3y ago
What, you think he's wrong because China had a bad economic quarter two years after he posted that? You realize China has had unprecedented growth over the past 15 years, with pundits predicting its collapse the entire time. They have 1.4B people, a very good education system, and a huge head of steam. China misses GDP targets by 1% for a single quarter, every news outlet reports on it, and in five years everyone is going to wonder how China has gotten to the place it has. That's basically happened repeatedly over the past 15-20 years.
- anthonypasq 3y ago
  their demographics are catastrophically bad.
  - HDThoreaun 3y ago
    Sort of. Honestly though the demographic collapse could be a good thing for them if they play it right as labor becomes less and less important as we automate. Youth unemployment is sky high in China, it's not unreasonable to say they have too many people right now. The biggest issue will be caring for their bloated retired population, but honestly the CCP has a strong enough hold that they might be able to just say "fuck them" and hang em out to dry. Either way I doubt it will be that much of an economic catastrophe, even if it is a humanitarian one.

reducesuffering 3y ago

I went in fully wanting you to be right, but Yegge has 90% good points there, and idk why he removed it. It’s possible there was a bit too much “running of his mouth” like talking about the CEO annual meetup at BillG house. China does have serious issues with its real estate economy and fertility. But the US also got through the grave issues of 2008, and China still has 1.4b people who take rigorous education a lot more seriously than many in America. And they will have far more people than us in the foreseeable future too. Do not count China out, they are a “hurricane,” are dangerously aimed at Taiwan, but with better understanding we can hopefully all defuse the situation amicably.

elfbargpt 3y ago

What, you think he's wrong because China had a bad economic quarter two years after he posted that? You realize China has had unprecedented growth over the past 15 years, with pundits predicting its collapse the entire time. They have 1.4B people, a very good education system, and a huge head of steam. China misses GDP targets by 1% for a single quarter, every news outlet reports on it, and in five years everyone is going to wonder how China has gotten to the place it has. That's basically happened repeatedly over the past 15-20 years.

anthonypasq 3y ago
their demographics are catastrophically bad.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  Sort of. Honestly though the demographic collapse could be a good thing for them if they play it right as labor becomes less and less important as we automate. Youth unemployment is sky high in China, it's not unreasonable to say they have too many people right now. The biggest issue will be caring for their bloated retired population, but honestly the CCP has a strong enough hold that they might be able to just say "fuck them" and hang em out to dry. Either way I doubt it will be that much of an economic catastrophe, even if it is a humanitarian one.