> The Economist does present one other piece of circumstantial evidence — a working paper by Caroline Freund of the IMF that finds that countries that have been

> The Economist does present one other piece of circumstantial evidence — a working paper by Caroline Freund of the IMF that finds that countries that have been increasing their exports to the U.S. tend to be countries that trade more with China. But this is a very far cry from showing that China’s value-added exports to the U.S. have remained constant. It is not a "very far cry". It's almost a direct link. Industries don't just "spun out" of nothingness. These countries are not re-industrializing as much as they are re-labeling. Which is cheaper and has much better margins. > But there are reasons to think that at least part of the drop in U.S. dependence on Chinese imports is real — at least, the recent drop in the last couple of years. First, Chinese exports overall are down substantially from 2021: This is a really weird timeline to pick given that the pandemic year saw a very high increase in Chinese exports: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports If you look at it from that angle, it looks more like stabilizing to previous growth. I find it interesting that both articles (The Economist) have the same prognosis, yet the came at two different conclusions: The restrictions did affect China, but only marginally. Some Chinese producers found ways around it by funneling their capacities through other countries. One is calling it a success and just a start. The other is calling it a failure. Maybe it's too early?