That makes sense, but I guess what I'm saying is that a rapid fall is priced in, in the sense that the market doesn't find it to be very likely. So it's only mi

That makes sense, but I guess what I'm saying is that a rapid fall is priced in, in the sense that the market doesn't find it to be very likely. So it's only mispriced if you think the odds of that happening are higher than what the market believes as a whole, and again, it's unlikely (but not impossible) that you have good reasons for believing that as a retail investor. With that said, I just want to make clear that I don't believe in the random walk theory, and I believe it's perfectly possible to be contrarian and be correct if you have information and/or insight that most other investors don't. I just don't think that the average person on HN (myself included) fits that bill, and I wouldn't hang your life savings on a whim like this unless you're comfortable treating it as what it is: gambling. :)