4 ms·

"Chinese factories haven't slowed down and Chinese GDP is still rising" This line is so wrong. You can't have 22% (at least) youth unemployment rate, and 19th

"Chinese factories haven't slowed down and Chinese GDP is still rising" This line is so wrong. You can't have 22% (at least) youth unemployment rate, and 19th straight month collapsing land sales revenue https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-landsales/chinas-land-sales-revenue-down-for-19th-straight-month-in-july-idUSKBN2ZW0IE https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-landsales/chin... (which is how local government get most of its money), and your biggest and second biggest real estate developer going bankrupt, and still support a 5% GDP growth as mentioned by the Chinese government. just doesn't happen in a real world. And there are so many reports of factories closing down, especially in the Shenzhen and Dongguan districts, either online videos or news reports https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/dongguans-industrial-woes-chinas-manufacturing-sector-faces-tough-time/ https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/dongguans-industrial-woes-ch..., that I don't know why you're attempting to lie outright.

dirtyid 3y ago
Land sales down 20% YoY is why growth is 4-5% instead of 8% - the effects of 3RL / crushing RE is built into cost of CCP targetting modest growth. Western reporting getting useful idiots to think PRC RE collapse is going to crush PRC growth to 0% is retarded, RE maybe large it's but not even close to plurarlity of economy - many other sectors, increasingly intermediate / high value like auto exports outperforming and making up lost RE in economic rebalancing. Increasing youth unemployment last few years also has little NET growth impact because PRC is graduating MORE every year, 12m this year vs 8m from ~5 years AGO. What's happening is is MORE youth in absolute numbers are entering work force, even if relative youth unemployment is higher. And net unemployment is 5%, meanning youth get work eventually. They just have flexbility of chilling at home to find job they want, or fuck around and realize they have to do something - side affect of PRC having high youth live at home + high house hold savings rate + low student debt. Industry has been closing in coastal due to land price for years. Low value/light has been moving abroad due to labour price. New (high value) industries are being shifted to interior industrial clusters. PRC export value grew by 1T in the last 4 years, more than the previous 10 combined. West might be trying to decouple, but PRC has been coupling more than ever, especially with global south. Truth of the matter is PRC has just undergone the most intensive phase in globalization in human history, and exports down only due to weak global economy, but it's still a 5 steps forward, 1 step back situation. The lie is motivated useful idiots who pick a few indicators to rationalize dampening growth to 4-5%, aka nearly HALF, is still not enough, and real growth must be near 0 because PRC is collapsing due to exogenous crisis when in reality PRC proactively triggered 3RL and other policies in a MANAGED unwinding because they could do so and still have room to hit 4-5% growth.
- jamesaurichs 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - dirtyid 3y ago
    Why do I need to waste effort to reference 101 material. If you don't possess basic subject matter knowledge, that can be done by trivial research, i.e. PRC export value by year, or graduation rates relative to urban youth unemployment rate, all of which has been referenced in western media, and apply figures to basic analysis that PRC % of global exports is increasing, or PRC net high skill workforce increasing faster than youth unemployment, then you're the kind of "useful idiot" (not pejorative, just term for people who fall for / or go beyond propaganda narratives) not worth effortful engagement and I leave my comment/analysis/rebuttle as service for benefit of other readers.
  - woooooo 3y ago
    Bruh, there's room for objective discussion of murky facts and figures without name calling.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]

dirtyid 3y ago

Land sales down 20% YoY is why growth is 4-5% instead of 8% - the effects of 3RL / crushing RE is built into cost of CCP targetting modest growth. Western reporting getting useful idiots to think PRC RE collapse is going to crush PRC growth to 0% is retarded, RE maybe large it's but not even close to plurarlity of economy - many other sectors, increasingly intermediate / high value like auto exports outperforming and making up lost RE in economic rebalancing. Increasing youth unemployment last few years also has little NET growth impact because PRC is graduating MORE every year, 12m this year vs 8m from ~5 years AGO. What's happening is is MORE youth in absolute numbers are entering work force, even if relative youth unemployment is higher. And net unemployment is 5%, meanning youth get work eventually. They just have flexbility of chilling at home to find job they want, or fuck around and realize they have to do something - side affect of PRC having high youth live at home + high house hold savings rate + low student debt. Industry has been closing in coastal due to land price for years. Low value/light has been moving abroad due to labour price. New (high value) industries are being shifted to interior industrial clusters. PRC export value grew by 1T in the last 4 years, more than the previous 10 combined. West might be trying to decouple, but PRC has been coupling more than ever, especially with global south. Truth of the matter is PRC has just undergone the most intensive phase in globalization in human history, and exports down only due to weak global economy, but it's still a 5 steps forward, 1 step back situation. The lie is motivated useful idiots who pick a few indicators to rationalize dampening growth to 4-5%, aka nearly HALF, is still not enough, and real growth must be near 0 because PRC is collapsing due to exogenous crisis when in reality PRC proactively triggered 3RL and other policies in a MANAGED unwinding because they could do so and still have room to hit 4-5% growth.

jamesaurichs 3y ago
[flagged]
- dirtyid 3y ago
  Why do I need to waste effort to reference 101 material. If you don't possess basic subject matter knowledge, that can be done by trivial research, i.e. PRC export value by year, or graduation rates relative to urban youth unemployment rate, all of which has been referenced in western media, and apply figures to basic analysis that PRC % of global exports is increasing, or PRC net high skill workforce increasing faster than youth unemployment, then you're the kind of "useful idiot" (not pejorative, just term for people who fall for / or go beyond propaganda narratives) not worth effortful engagement and I leave my comment/analysis/rebuttle as service for benefit of other readers.
- woooooo 3y ago
  Bruh, there's room for objective discussion of murky facts and figures without name calling.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]