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> What is your reference for what is usual in this context? Probably a wishy washy statement, I apologize. I was sort of partly making an analogy to evolution

> What is your reference for what is usual in this context? Probably a wishy washy statement, I apologize. I was sort of partly making an analogy to evolution where everything is generally tried out in a random fashion and then what works tends to stick around. It is really hard to predict what will work ahead of time because context matters and it is always changing. What may work for a while may not work in the future because of changing context. I also do not mean all possible futures that one can ever think. I mostly mean speculative futures that are often talked about in sci fi books. My experience in my life is that technological inventions talked about regularly in sci fi tend to be achieved over the long run, although it is hard to predict exactly when.

thfuran 3y ago
I think that's a particularly poor example, given that an estimated 99 percent of all species are already extinct.
- bhouston 3y ago
  > I think that's a particularly poor example, given that an estimated 99 percent of all species are already extinct. Huh? Anyhow, it is really hard to predict evolution over the long-term because of the ever changing context (environment, other species, etc.). Generally things happen and are tried out, experimented with and what works sticks around. Those claiming to be able to predict the future concretely from many potential futures are probably wrong (and are also likely fans of Azimov's Foundations series.)
  - etrautmann 3y ago
    Exactly. This is what's so confusing to me. How can any intelligent person think that they can predict what will happen even 10 years out, let alone 100 or 1000. The chaotic dynamics of nonlinear systems renders the Foundation series laughably ungrounded, and seems to be overlooked by many today.
  - thfuran 3y ago
    What almost always happens in the context of evolution is that things are tried out and what works sticks around until something changes and the species goes extinct. Nearly every species that ever existed is already extinct. It's hard to predict exactly what will happen in the long term with evolution, but that doesn't mean "the species that are now populous will always remain so" is a good bet.

thfuran 3y ago

I think that's a particularly poor example, given that an estimated 99 percent of all species are already extinct.

bhouston 3y ago
> I think that's a particularly poor example, given that an estimated 99 percent of all species are already extinct. Huh? Anyhow, it is really hard to predict evolution over the long-term because of the ever changing context (environment, other species, etc.). Generally things happen and are tried out, experimented with and what works sticks around. Those claiming to be able to predict the future concretely from many potential futures are probably wrong (and are also likely fans of Azimov's Foundations series.)
- etrautmann 3y ago
  Exactly. This is what's so confusing to me. How can any intelligent person think that they can predict what will happen even 10 years out, let alone 100 or 1000. The chaotic dynamics of nonlinear systems renders the Foundation series laughably ungrounded, and seems to be overlooked by many today.
- thfuran 3y ago
  What almost always happens in the context of evolution is that things are tried out and what works sticks around until something changes and the species goes extinct. Nearly every species that ever existed is already extinct. It's hard to predict exactly what will happen in the long term with evolution, but that doesn't mean "the species that are now populous will always remain so" is a good bet.