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> The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory to Vietnam or Korea, then some screws are tightened, some paint is slapped on, or a label is applied, a

> The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory to Vietnam or Korea, then some screws are tightened, some paint is slapped on, or a label is applied, and the product is re-exported. The whole point of this article is to rebute the point you've made. From the article: > The Economist’s basic argument is that because many of the goods exported to the U.S. from countries like Vietnam contain a lot of parts and components made in China, “decoupling is phoney”. Here's one of the arguments the article makes against this: > But there are reasons to think that at least part of the drop in U.S. dependence on Chinese imports is real — at least, the recent drop in the last couple of years. First, Chinese exports overall are down substantially from 2021. [...] > To the extent that falling investment in China is due to corporate de-risking, it’s probably eventually going to spread all the way up the supply chain. If you’re a U.S. company that moves production from China to Vietnam because of the risk of war, and your Vietnamese factory is importing most of its parts from China, you’ll know it. And you’ll know that you’re still exposed to China risk, and you’ll look around for alternative places for your Vietnamese factory to get its parts and components. That might take time — years even, given China’s dominance of manufacturing. But as long as the risk of conflict stays high for years, companies will keep looking for ways to build entire supply chains that never run through China. And they will succeed.

sudosysgen 3y ago
Total 2023 Chinese exports are projected to be fairly close to what they were in 2021, which is not that bad given macroeconomic trends across the world. The risk for companies to build supply chains that completely avoid China is that they will be outcompeted by competitors who won't and who will make use of these loopholes.
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  Xi Jinping has already enacted likely unpopular economic policies that were failing without the US starting its economic cold war. He's already enacted purges and other violent measures to centralize power as I understand it. What degree of economic damage would fundamentally destabilize China politically such that Xi is deposed? If stupid me is thinking about such vulnerabilities/risks, would foreign businessmen bet on Chinese factories, or move them to the newer/cheaper labor markets I've been hearing about for the last 10 years like Vietnam and Malaysia? And Jinping is 70, do you think he's lasting to 80? When he croaks, due to his elimination of what semblance of political power handover / elections that used to exist in China, it will be a bloodbath.
- nvm0n2 3y ago
  Wouldn't that be extremely bad, given that 2021 was a year with many lockdowns and COVID related disruption especially in China? Surely 2023 should have experienced a rebound?
  - sudosysgen 3y ago
    The average Chinese was locked down for less than the average American, and while the lockdowns were far more severe, they weren't much worse for the economy. 2021 was a great year for Chinese exports especially due to COVID. It's one of the countries that suffered the least economic damage, and it's exports actually grew immensely compared to previous years.
  - dirtyid 3y ago
    No it would be stupid good. PRC export value went from 2.5T in 2019 to 3.4T in 2021, to 3.6T in 2022. It increased more during 3-4 years of covid than previous 10 years combined (1.4T in 2009). Primarily because 0covid left most of PRC undisrupted, most of the time, which setup PRC to export to most of world, especially global south. Currently everyone's exports down due to global slow down, but PRC exports down from stupid high peak. It's more surprising how much of exports PRC is holding onto due to artificial conditions caused by covid. Reverting back to 2021 (3.4T) would be a 5 steps forward 1 step back situation vs, reverting back to 2020 (2.6T) which would be status quo.
    - nvm0n2 3y ago
      You are right, thank you for the detailed answer.
vGPU 3y ago
But Chinese exports to the US increased. > In 2022, both U.S. exports to China and imports from China continued to grow for a third year in a row. U.S. exports totaled $153.8 billion, an increase of 1.6% ($2.4 billion) from 2021; U.S. imports from China totaled $536.8 billion, an increase of 6.3% ($31.8 billion); and the trade deficit with China was $382.9 billion, an increase of 8.3% of ($29.4 billion). - dept. of commerce.
- panarky 3y ago
  Those percentage increases seem to be lower than the rate of inflation at that time, which would mean the real value of imports and exports was flat or lower.

sudosysgen 3y ago

Total 2023 Chinese exports are projected to be fairly close to what they were in 2021, which is not that bad given macroeconomic trends across the world. The risk for companies to build supply chains that completely avoid China is that they will be outcompeted by competitors who won't and who will make use of these loopholes.

AtlasBarfed 3y ago
Xi Jinping has already enacted likely unpopular economic policies that were failing without the US starting its economic cold war. He's already enacted purges and other violent measures to centralize power as I understand it. What degree of economic damage would fundamentally destabilize China politically such that Xi is deposed? If stupid me is thinking about such vulnerabilities/risks, would foreign businessmen bet on Chinese factories, or move them to the newer/cheaper labor markets I've been hearing about for the last 10 years like Vietnam and Malaysia? And Jinping is 70, do you think he's lasting to 80? When he croaks, due to his elimination of what semblance of political power handover / elections that used to exist in China, it will be a bloodbath.
nvm0n2 3y ago
Wouldn't that be extremely bad, given that 2021 was a year with many lockdowns and COVID related disruption especially in China? Surely 2023 should have experienced a rebound?
- sudosysgen 3y ago
  The average Chinese was locked down for less than the average American, and while the lockdowns were far more severe, they weren't much worse for the economy. 2021 was a great year for Chinese exports especially due to COVID. It's one of the countries that suffered the least economic damage, and it's exports actually grew immensely compared to previous years.
- dirtyid 3y ago
  No it would be stupid good. PRC export value went from 2.5T in 2019 to 3.4T in 2021, to 3.6T in 2022. It increased more during 3-4 years of covid than previous 10 years combined (1.4T in 2009). Primarily because 0covid left most of PRC undisrupted, most of the time, which setup PRC to export to most of world, especially global south. Currently everyone's exports down due to global slow down, but PRC exports down from stupid high peak. It's more surprising how much of exports PRC is holding onto due to artificial conditions caused by covid. Reverting back to 2021 (3.4T) would be a 5 steps forward 1 step back situation vs, reverting back to 2020 (2.6T) which would be status quo.
  - nvm0n2 3y ago
    You are right, thank you for the detailed answer.

vGPU 3y ago

But Chinese exports to the US increased. > In 2022, both U.S. exports to China and imports from China continued to grow for a third year in a row. U.S. exports totaled $153.8 billion, an increase of 1.6% ($2.4 billion) from 2021; U.S. imports from China totaled $536.8 billion, an increase of 6.3% ($31.8 billion); and the trade deficit with China was $382.9 billion, an increase of 8.3% of ($29.4 billion). - dept. of commerce.

panarky 3y ago
Those percentage increases seem to be lower than the rate of inflation at that time, which would mean the real value of imports and exports was flat or lower.