5 ms·

It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. Howeve

by extr 3y ago

It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses.

echelon 3y ago
> It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses. Not at all identical. Writing and selling a book only requires a text editor (or typewriter), maybe a copy editor, and maybe a publicist. It's been that way for the better part of a century. Present-day films require enormous capital, equipment, logistics, personnel, pre-production, post-production, and marketing. Film is about to be wholly transformed by several orders of magnitude of cost, talent, personnel, and logistics reductions. All at the same time. Kids at home will have access to this tech and grow up on it.
- CyberDildonics 3y ago
  That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch.
  - echelon 3y ago
    You always take the contrarian opinion to my comments, CyberDildonics. > That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. We're not talking about the same thing. None of these trends towards fast and dirty filmmaking incorporated Gen AI. You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. That will change. > Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch. They're certainly watching each other's content. YouTube is filled with lots of young creators with enormous audiences. That trend will continue to grow.
    - CyberDildonics 3y ago
      You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. You can shoot video that looks as good or better than 35mm film from the 90s on a video camera that is in the low hundreds of dollars, if that. People can go out and make movies, but that doesn't mean they are making things people want to watch. I think you are underestimating how detailed and exact film making really is for "hollywood" quality. You need extreme directability at every stage of the pipeline. People being able to use a system that creates something decent but makes you accept whatever you get has existed for a long time through animations with game engine characters.
      - satvikpendem 3y ago
        You can direct the generation already for Stable Diffusion with ControlNet and OpenPose (a pose library), it's not too far off to rig an animation of a certain movement and then have the AI generate the exact movements you want. If you look at something like ComfyUI, there is an entire node-based workflow akin to game development software, it's not a "type prompt, get output" process at all, as the AI can't read your mind (yet), so you must put in the effort to get out what you want. It's really not much different than making an animated or CGI film, only now the CGI is photorealistic.
        CyberDildonics 3y ago
        You are making the mistake of equating incremental progress with the most extreme litmus test for quality. Posing is great, but again in a system with a lot of automation, once what you want isn't coming out automatically, you are sunk. Already I could see concept art, animatics, previs and other areas benefiting a lot from these tools. Almost nothing so far is temporally coherent or actually final quality. There is still a lot of use for that, but to replace actual final shots in films everything has to be perfect. The lighting of every element has to match, the perspective has to match, the model and deformations have to be perfect etc. That isn't going to happen with 2D techniques that hallucinate details from other photos.
organsnyder 3y ago
There's still a lot of value in the publishing process. Yes, the gatekeeping is inequitable and suboptimal, but "publishing" is more than simply formatting a manuscript and making it available in retail channels. And a competent editor is doing much more than simply proofreading.
- johncalvinyoung 3y ago
  And aside from Kindle, even the 'formatting the manuscript' part is very much underestimated by most self-publishers. Professional-grade typesetting and cover design makes a great deal of difference to reading comfort, shelf appeal, and overall perception of value.
- cpill 3y ago
  like what?
rcme 3y ago
Doesn’t TikTok solve the distribution problem in a way that’s not currently possible with published literature?
- extr 3y ago
  In a manner of speaking. TikTok solves the distribution problem for short videos, but not TV shows or movies. As the time to consume goes up, you face more of a gamble on whether consuming that piece of media will be "worth it". Books are the most extreme form of the problem.
r00fus 3y ago
I'm finding that fanfic seems quite good (though the fan-service is a bit glaring) these days and it's entirely free.

by extr 3y ago

echelon 3y ago

> It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses. Not at all identical. Writing and selling a book only requires a text editor (or typewriter), maybe a copy editor, and maybe a publicist. It's been that way for the better part of a century. Present-day films require enormous capital, equipment, logistics, personnel, pre-production, post-production, and marketing. Film is about to be wholly transformed by several orders of magnitude of cost, talent, personnel, and logistics reductions. All at the same time. Kids at home will have access to this tech and grow up on it.

CyberDildonics 3y ago
That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch.
- echelon 3y ago
  You always take the contrarian opinion to my comments, CyberDildonics. > That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. We're not talking about the same thing. None of these trends towards fast and dirty filmmaking incorporated Gen AI. You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. That will change. > Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch. They're certainly watching each other's content. YouTube is filled with lots of young creators with enormous audiences. That trend will continue to grow.
  - CyberDildonics 3y ago
    You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. You can shoot video that looks as good or better than 35mm film from the 90s on a video camera that is in the low hundreds of dollars, if that. People can go out and make movies, but that doesn't mean they are making things people want to watch. I think you are underestimating how detailed and exact film making really is for "hollywood" quality. You need extreme directability at every stage of the pipeline. People being able to use a system that creates something decent but makes you accept whatever you get has existed for a long time through animations with game engine characters.
    - satvikpendem 3y ago
      You can direct the generation already for Stable Diffusion with ControlNet and OpenPose (a pose library), it's not too far off to rig an animation of a certain movement and then have the AI generate the exact movements you want. If you look at something like ComfyUI, there is an entire node-based workflow akin to game development software, it's not a "type prompt, get output" process at all, as the AI can't read your mind (yet), so you must put in the effort to get out what you want. It's really not much different than making an animated or CGI film, only now the CGI is photorealistic.
      - CyberDildonics 3y ago
        You are making the mistake of equating incremental progress with the most extreme litmus test for quality. Posing is great, but again in a system with a lot of automation, once what you want isn't coming out automatically, you are sunk. Already I could see concept art, animatics, previs and other areas benefiting a lot from these tools. Almost nothing so far is temporally coherent or actually final quality. There is still a lot of use for that, but to replace actual final shots in films everything has to be perfect. The lighting of every element has to match, the perspective has to match, the model and deformations have to be perfect etc. That isn't going to happen with 2D techniques that hallucinate details from other photos.

organsnyder 3y ago

There's still a lot of value in the publishing process. Yes, the gatekeeping is inequitable and suboptimal, but "publishing" is more than simply formatting a manuscript and making it available in retail channels. And a competent editor is doing much more than simply proofreading.

johncalvinyoung 3y ago
And aside from Kindle, even the 'formatting the manuscript' part is very much underestimated by most self-publishers. Professional-grade typesetting and cover design makes a great deal of difference to reading comfort, shelf appeal, and overall perception of value.
cpill 3y ago
like what?

rcme 3y ago

Doesn’t TikTok solve the distribution problem in a way that’s not currently possible with published literature?

extr 3y ago
In a manner of speaking. TikTok solves the distribution problem for short videos, but not TV shows or movies. As the time to consume goes up, you face more of a gamble on whether consuming that piece of media will be "worth it". Books are the most extreme form of the problem.

r00fus 3y ago

I'm finding that fanfic seems quite good (though the fan-service is a bit glaring) these days and it's entirely free.