6 ms·

Things will certainly change. However, I don't think professional studio productions will go away. In the age of MP3's and streaming services, "anyone" can pu

Things will certainly change. However, I don't think professional studio productions will go away. In the age of MP3's and streaming services, "anyone" can put their music out there. And while many do, the most popular and successful music still comes from major labels. With Amazon's distribution platform and tooling for self-published authors, "anyone" can write a book. And while many do put out some great stuff, the overwhelming majority of books that don't come from major publishers are shovelware. As shitty of a curator as Hollywood might be, for most people there is value-add in curation.

novok 3y ago
I think it will create a new middle class artist category, much like youtube, commodity video editing software and good 4k cameras have done today. Certain kinds of niche content will become more viable.
extr 3y ago
It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses.
- echelon 3y ago
  > It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses. Not at all identical. Writing and selling a book only requires a text editor (or typewriter), maybe a copy editor, and maybe a publicist. It's been that way for the better part of a century. Present-day films require enormous capital, equipment, logistics, personnel, pre-production, post-production, and marketing. Film is about to be wholly transformed by several orders of magnitude of cost, talent, personnel, and logistics reductions. All at the same time. Kids at home will have access to this tech and grow up on it.
  - CyberDildonics 3y ago
    That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch.
    - echelon 3y ago
      You always take the contrarian opinion to my comments, CyberDildonics. > That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. We're not talking about the same thing. None of these trends towards fast and dirty filmmaking incorporated Gen AI. You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. That will change. > Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch. They're certainly watching each other's content. YouTube is filled with lots of young creators with enormous audiences. That trend will continue to grow.
      - CyberDildonics 3y ago
        You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. You can shoot video that looks as good or better than 35mm film from the 90s on a video camera that is in the low hundreds of dollars, if that. People can go out and make movies, but that doesn't mean they are making things people want to watch. I think you are underestimating how detailed and exact film making really is for "hollywood" quality. You need extreme directability at every stage of the pipeline. People being able to use a system that creates something decent but makes you accept whatever you get has existed for a long time through animations with game engine characters.
        satvikpendem 3y ago
        You can direct the generation already for Stable Diffusion with ControlNet and OpenPose (a pose library), it's not too far off to rig an animation of a certain movement and then have the AI generate the exact movements you want. If you look at something like ComfyUI, there is an entire node-based workflow akin to game development software, it's not a "type prompt, get output" process at all, as the AI can't read your mind (yet), so you must put in the effort to get out what you want. It's really not much different than making an animated or CGI film, only now the CGI is photorealistic.
- organsnyder 3y ago
  There's still a lot of value in the publishing process. Yes, the gatekeeping is inequitable and suboptimal, but "publishing" is more than simply formatting a manuscript and making it available in retail channels. And a competent editor is doing much more than simply proofreading.
  - johncalvinyoung 3y ago
    And aside from Kindle, even the 'formatting the manuscript' part is very much underestimated by most self-publishers. Professional-grade typesetting and cover design makes a great deal of difference to reading comfort, shelf appeal, and overall perception of value.
  - cpill 3y ago
    like what?
- rcme 3y ago
  Doesn’t TikTok solve the distribution problem in a way that’s not currently possible with published literature?
  - extr 3y ago
    In a manner of speaking. TikTok solves the distribution problem for short videos, but not TV shows or movies. As the time to consume goes up, you face more of a gamble on whether consuming that piece of media will be "worth it". Books are the most extreme form of the problem.
- r00fus 3y ago
  I'm finding that fanfic seems quite good (though the fan-service is a bit glaring) these days and it's entirely free.
TylerE 3y ago
The majors aren't so major anymore. Many big artists actually have their own labels now. A lot of 'em have distro deals... but it's a very different model. No advances, so the artist pays all recording costs, but they also end up owning the masters and having total creative control.
- gorlilla 3y ago
  Taylor Swift _is_ the music industry.
echelon 3y ago
> Things will certainly change. However, I don't think professional studio productions will go away. You'll still have auteurs such as Wes Anderson shooting film, but the era of $100 million dollar blockbusters is coming to an end.
01100011 3y ago
> In the age of MP3's and streaming services, "anyone" can put their music out there. Not the same thing. Putting music out still requires a lot of.. artistry. The tools don't do the work for you. "AI" is heading in a direction where you only need to supply the most rudimentary of ideas and it fills in the rest. At some point you won't even need to supply the ideas as the system will have some concept of what pleases you.
Vicinity9635 3y ago
>And while many do, the most popular and successful music still comes from major labels. Isn't that just the result of marketing? Rich Men North of Richmond just came out of nowhere and went organically viral. >And while many do put out some great stuff, the overwhelming majority of books that don't come from major publishers are shovelware. How would you know? This is the "you don't know what you don't know" problem. Nobody has read all the books there, it's mathematically impossible I think. >As shitty of a curator as Hollywood might be, for most people there is value-add in curation. Mass appeal is lowest common denominator targeting, not value itself. Popularity is only correlated with quality.
- leviathant 3y ago
  > Rich Men North of Richmond just came out of nowhere and went organically viral. Are you being sarcastic, or do you really know nothing about music promotion? https://twitter.com/zei_squirrel/status/1691212356364226560?t=dpCRAuWD5Kt2cvQjMNbZMQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/zei_squirrel/status/1691212356364226560?... Pay a publicist with the right connections five figures and a review of your work will make its way into the New York Times. Right wing D-listers have a much lower bar.
  - Vicinity9635 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]

novok 3y ago

I think it will create a new middle class artist category, much like youtube, commodity video editing software and good 4k cameras have done today. Certain kinds of niche content will become more viable.

extr 3y ago

It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses.

echelon 3y ago
> It's identical to the current state of the publishing world. They've already gone through this transition: the marginal cost to "publish" a book is zero. However to "publish a book that will people will read" is a different question altogether and is still very much gatekept by the major publishing houses. Not at all identical. Writing and selling a book only requires a text editor (or typewriter), maybe a copy editor, and maybe a publicist. It's been that way for the better part of a century. Present-day films require enormous capital, equipment, logistics, personnel, pre-production, post-production, and marketing. Film is about to be wholly transformed by several orders of magnitude of cost, talent, personnel, and logistics reductions. All at the same time. Kids at home will have access to this tech and grow up on it.
- CyberDildonics 3y ago
  That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch.
  - echelon 3y ago
    You always take the contrarian opinion to my comments, CyberDildonics. > That already happened. Cameras, lights and a computer that can edit are hundreds of time cheaper than they were a few decades ago. We're not talking about the same thing. None of these trends towards fast and dirty filmmaking incorporated Gen AI. You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. That will change. > Kids can make videos, but they aren't making movies anyone wants to watch. They're certainly watching each other's content. YouTube is filled with lots of young creators with enormous audiences. That trend will continue to grow.
    - CyberDildonics 3y ago
      You couldn't get Hollywood-quality out of an Android phone and a boom microphone. You can shoot video that looks as good or better than 35mm film from the 90s on a video camera that is in the low hundreds of dollars, if that. People can go out and make movies, but that doesn't mean they are making things people want to watch. I think you are underestimating how detailed and exact film making really is for "hollywood" quality. You need extreme directability at every stage of the pipeline. People being able to use a system that creates something decent but makes you accept whatever you get has existed for a long time through animations with game engine characters.
      - satvikpendem 3y ago
        You can direct the generation already for Stable Diffusion with ControlNet and OpenPose (a pose library), it's not too far off to rig an animation of a certain movement and then have the AI generate the exact movements you want. If you look at something like ComfyUI, there is an entire node-based workflow akin to game development software, it's not a "type prompt, get output" process at all, as the AI can't read your mind (yet), so you must put in the effort to get out what you want. It's really not much different than making an animated or CGI film, only now the CGI is photorealistic.
organsnyder 3y ago
There's still a lot of value in the publishing process. Yes, the gatekeeping is inequitable and suboptimal, but "publishing" is more than simply formatting a manuscript and making it available in retail channels. And a competent editor is doing much more than simply proofreading.
- johncalvinyoung 3y ago
  And aside from Kindle, even the 'formatting the manuscript' part is very much underestimated by most self-publishers. Professional-grade typesetting and cover design makes a great deal of difference to reading comfort, shelf appeal, and overall perception of value.
- cpill 3y ago
  like what?
rcme 3y ago
Doesn’t TikTok solve the distribution problem in a way that’s not currently possible with published literature?
- extr 3y ago
  In a manner of speaking. TikTok solves the distribution problem for short videos, but not TV shows or movies. As the time to consume goes up, you face more of a gamble on whether consuming that piece of media will be "worth it". Books are the most extreme form of the problem.
r00fus 3y ago
I'm finding that fanfic seems quite good (though the fan-service is a bit glaring) these days and it's entirely free.

TylerE 3y ago

The majors aren't so major anymore. Many big artists actually have their own labels now. A lot of 'em have distro deals... but it's a very different model. No advances, so the artist pays all recording costs, but they also end up owning the masters and having total creative control.

gorlilla 3y ago
Taylor Swift _is_ the music industry.

echelon 3y ago

> Things will certainly change. However, I don't think professional studio productions will go away. You'll still have auteurs such as Wes Anderson shooting film, but the era of $100 million dollar blockbusters is coming to an end.

01100011 3y ago

> In the age of MP3's and streaming services, "anyone" can put their music out there. Not the same thing. Putting music out still requires a lot of.. artistry. The tools don't do the work for you. "AI" is heading in a direction where you only need to supply the most rudimentary of ideas and it fills in the rest. At some point you won't even need to supply the ideas as the system will have some concept of what pleases you.

Vicinity9635 3y ago

>And while many do, the most popular and successful music still comes from major labels. Isn't that just the result of marketing? Rich Men North of Richmond just came out of nowhere and went organically viral. >And while many do put out some great stuff, the overwhelming majority of books that don't come from major publishers are shovelware. How would you know? This is the "you don't know what you don't know" problem. Nobody has read all the books there, it's mathematically impossible I think. >As shitty of a curator as Hollywood might be, for most people there is value-add in curation. Mass appeal is lowest common denominator targeting, not value itself. Popularity is only correlated with quality.

leviathant 3y ago
> Rich Men North of Richmond just came out of nowhere and went organically viral. Are you being sarcastic, or do you really know nothing about music promotion? https://twitter.com/zei_squirrel/status/1691212356364226560?t=dpCRAuWD5Kt2cvQjMNbZMQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/zei_squirrel/status/1691212356364226560?... Pay a publicist with the right connections five figures and a review of your work will make its way into the New York Times. Right wing D-listers have a much lower bar.
- Vicinity9635 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]