4 ms·

> I think long term consequences are already completely inevitable Degradation vs. collapse. Collapse is still preventable, but the window is closing fast. If

by myshpa 3y ago

> I think long term consequences are already completely inevitable Degradation vs. collapse. Collapse is still preventable, but the window is closing fast. If we'd stop fossil fuels, reform agriculture and reforest what we can, we'd be able to reverse the warming and let biodiversity rebound. Continue for a few more decades, and the carrying capacity falls drastically.

myrmidon 3y ago
Collapse of what? Civilization? I don't buy into that at all; massive waves of climate refugees, environmental disasters, loss of coastal urban space, economical crises: sure-- but collapse of civilization?! I simply don't see that happening, to me that appears like completely unfounded pessimism. But feel free to try and change my view...
- myshpa 3y ago
  > Collapse of what? Civilization? I was referring to the collapse (significant degradation) of the environmental carrying capacity. In such a scenario, our civilization would implode on its own. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPb_0JZ6-Rc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPb_0JZ6-Rc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/ https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/ > But feel free to try and change my view It's a complex topic ... I only can give you a few links. The system we live in is very complex ... and as in every complex system even a minor error can cripple the system. Just remember how much damage to the economy was caused by just one ship blocking the Suez. I don't think the system is able to handle large-scale agricultural failures, prolonged droughts or abrupt sea level rises. Everything seems to be changing more rapidly than predicted - from air and sea temperatures to thawing, droughts, biodiversity loss, etc. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-change-tipping-points/674778/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-... Climate Collapse Could Happen Fast - As temperature and weather records fall, Earth may be nearing so-called tipping points. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/cata... Catastrophic climate 'doom loops' could start in just 15 years, new study warns https://www.iflscience.com/chances-of-societal-collapse-in-next-few-decades-is-sky-high-modelling-suggests-56867 https://www.iflscience.com/chances-of-societal-collapse-in-n... Chances Of Societal Collapse In Next Few Decades Is Sky High, Modelling Suggests https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32 https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32 The Human Ecology of Overshoot: Why a Major ‘Population Correction’ Is Inevitable https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers https://apnews.com/article/climate-united-nations-paris-europe-berlin-802ae4475c9047fb6d82ac88b37a690e https://apnews.com/article/climate-united-nations-paris-euro... UN warns Earth ‘firmly on track toward an unlivable world’ https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html Limits to Growth https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/09/the-planet-warms-the-world-economy-cools-the-real-global-recession-is-ecological https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/09/the-planet-... The planet heats, the world economy cools – the real global recession is ecological https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 Humans are driving one million species to extinction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-70-of-animal-populations-wiped-out-since-1970-report-reveals-aoe https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-7... Animal populations experience average decline of almost 70% since 1970, report reveals https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/ Ecological cliff edge

by myshpa 3y ago

myrmidon 3y ago

Collapse of what? Civilization? I don't buy into that at all; massive waves of climate refugees, environmental disasters, loss of coastal urban space, economical crises: sure-- but collapse of civilization?! I simply don't see that happening, to me that appears like completely unfounded pessimism. But feel free to try and change my view...

myshpa 3y ago
> Collapse of what? Civilization? I was referring to the collapse (significant degradation) of the environmental carrying capacity. In such a scenario, our civilization would implode on its own. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPb_0JZ6-Rc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPb_0JZ6-Rc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/ https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/ > But feel free to try and change my view It's a complex topic ... I only can give you a few links. The system we live in is very complex ... and as in every complex system even a minor error can cripple the system. Just remember how much damage to the economy was caused by just one ship blocking the Suez. I don't think the system is able to handle large-scale agricultural failures, prolonged droughts or abrupt sea level rises. Everything seems to be changing more rapidly than predicted - from air and sea temperatures to thawing, droughts, biodiversity loss, etc. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-change-tipping-points/674778/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-... Climate Collapse Could Happen Fast - As temperature and weather records fall, Earth may be nearing so-called tipping points. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/cata... Catastrophic climate 'doom loops' could start in just 15 years, new study warns https://www.iflscience.com/chances-of-societal-collapse-in-next-few-decades-is-sky-high-modelling-suggests-56867 https://www.iflscience.com/chances-of-societal-collapse-in-n... Chances Of Societal Collapse In Next Few Decades Is Sky High, Modelling Suggests https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32 https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32 The Human Ecology of Overshoot: Why a Major ‘Population Correction’ Is Inevitable https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers https://apnews.com/article/climate-united-nations-paris-europe-berlin-802ae4475c9047fb6d82ac88b37a690e https://apnews.com/article/climate-united-nations-paris-euro... UN warns Earth ‘firmly on track toward an unlivable world’ https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html Limits to Growth https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/09/the-planet-warms-the-world-economy-cools-the-real-global-recession-is-ecological https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/09/the-planet-... The planet heats, the world economy cools – the real global recession is ecological https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4 Humans are driving one million species to extinction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-70-of-animal-populations-wiped-out-since-1970-report-reveals-aoe https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-7... Animal populations experience average decline of almost 70% since 1970, report reveals https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/ Ecological cliff edge