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> You cannot remove hallucinations What makes you sure that will hold for the next 5 years as tech improves? > It will probably be 5 years before we can even
by atleastoptimal 3y ago
> You cannot remove hallucinations
What makes you sure that will hold for the next 5 years as tech improves?
> It will probably be 5 years before we can even make enough GPUs to support every company having an OpenAI scale model they can build & run
Not every company needs its own monster model, the point is OpenAI type companies will build the base model and other companies will fork their own versions
>Large context windows come with their own problems and there are other papers that show the agent pyramids are fools errand (the "liar" checks the "liar" issue)
I looked up agent pyramids and "liar" checks the "liar" issue and found nothing. Could you link those papers you're referencing?
I don't imagine jobs are just going to "disappear", what I do imagine is that gradually senior devs will offload more and more of their work to internal AI models. Big companies like Google will have the best, so they'll signal how things will change for the rest. As the models improve, the chance of any task a model is set to has a higher and higher chance of success and more human readable documentation, to the point where senior devs no longer have to check that they did their job correctly, and other AIs will begin to read/use the code and documentation other AIs wrote. This process will inch up the ladder piece by piece until senior devs begin assigning AI tasks that other senior devs would have done, notice that the AI does it better, and the total efficacy of the senior staff erodes. At this point companies will emerge entirely autonomously run, which is the final signal for other companies that human labor is no longer needed the moment something is automatable.
- verdverm 3y ago1. I said we will need new models, not that it wasn't possible 2. It's more of a total through out problem, even if OpenAI ran all the models, you still need the hardware capacity. We are already two years behind in supply vs demand vs manufacturing capacity. A lot of people cannot even try to build, this happened to me over the weekend 3. I'm not going to do research for you. Certainly doing simple searches is not enough to understand where things are going. You have to stay tuned in to the progress and have your finger on the pulse. There are plenty of prominent accounts on X to follow and be aware of what I'm pointing out here. You claims about what is to come are likely exaggerated because you are only understanding the surface at this point. Keep learning and researching!