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> A lot of work can be done by no-code and low-code tools so there is less need for software engineers in general. You do realize that the complexity and neces

> A lot of work can be done by no-code and low-code tools so there is less need for software engineers in general. You do realize that the complexity and necessary expertise doesn't go away just because some of the code does, right? Someone still has to untangle the human side of the requirements, specify what the software should do in technical terms, and configure it for the use case. Most software is concerned with its uniqueness and you can't train an AI to handle that part (where most of the time is spent). Seriously. Every single application that has ever been made is unique in ways that can never be reused and must be thrown away. Programming is creative and skilled labor, not mere routine tasks. By their very definition, statistical models cannot learn this. It doesn't exist in the training data and cannot be inferred. It requires reasoning skills from far outside the expected context. Humans use their lifetime of experiences in the real world to accomplish this. AI doesn't. All that still requires a software engineer, and as soon as a project doesn't require code they'll immediately be occupied by another project that does. It's fascinating how clueless some people can be about the sheer amount and complexity of the work a software engineer does. How can outsiders with little to no authority over anything within a business manage to get paid so well by that business? It's because there's no choice and the work is hard.

lxgr 3y ago
Sure, but how many software engineers (per project size unit) will it really take in the end? If an average software engineer spends 10-20% of their day doing creative work and 80% wrestling various build tools, writing semi-repetitive code etc., it’s not hard to imagine a world in which aggregate demand for these services still goes down.
- sublinear 3y ago
  The junior engineers are spending 80% of their time wrestling with tools. The senior engineers are spending their 80% of the day stuck in meetings and group chats and ultimately doing the heavy lifting, often squeezing in this coding after business hours are over for everyone else. We can get rid of junior engineers, but then there's no one to replace the senior engineers, not even the precious AI. As it is, most businesses would love to hire more software engineers, not fewer. There's a shortage of money and talent, not work.
  - lxgr 3y ago
    But how do junior engineers become senior engineers? Who will be willing to pay junior engineers to learn the ropes when AI can do that part almost as well, with only a bit of senior engineer oversight?
    - exponentialist 3y ago
      Eventually it will all be managed by a collection of specialized AIs with a single person orchestrating their activity. Software engineering as it is now probably won't exist in a few years (assuming AI capabilities keep improving as they have we can expect an exponential increase in their capabilities).
    - photonbeam 3y ago
      There will always be companies who hire juniors due to cost

lxgr 3y ago

Sure, but how many software engineers (per project size unit) will it really take in the end? If an average software engineer spends 10-20% of their day doing creative work and 80% wrestling various build tools, writing semi-repetitive code etc., it’s not hard to imagine a world in which aggregate demand for these services still goes down.

sublinear 3y ago
The junior engineers are spending 80% of their time wrestling with tools. The senior engineers are spending their 80% of the day stuck in meetings and group chats and ultimately doing the heavy lifting, often squeezing in this coding after business hours are over for everyone else. We can get rid of junior engineers, but then there's no one to replace the senior engineers, not even the precious AI. As it is, most businesses would love to hire more software engineers, not fewer. There's a shortage of money and talent, not work.
- lxgr 3y ago
  But how do junior engineers become senior engineers? Who will be willing to pay junior engineers to learn the ropes when AI can do that part almost as well, with only a bit of senior engineer oversight?
  - exponentialist 3y ago
    Eventually it will all be managed by a collection of specialized AIs with a single person orchestrating their activity. Software engineering as it is now probably won't exist in a few years (assuming AI capabilities keep improving as they have we can expect an exponential increase in their capabilities).
  - photonbeam 3y ago
    There will always be companies who hire juniors due to cost