4 ms·

We could be headed towards a future where 80% of software is written by AI, but the other 20% requires 200 million humans. AI will likely revolutionize some so

We could be headed towards a future where 80% of software is written by AI, but the other 20% requires 200 million humans. AI will likely revolutionize some software development tasks, but it is too hard to predict the long term effects when we don't even know the future demand for software.

atleastoptimal 3y ago
I wonder why you believe the remaining 20% will require 200 million humans. What will those humans do that no AI could do or even hope to do?
- themerone 3y ago
  You completely missed the point. I'm just illustrating the possiblity that, if there are only tasks that humans can do, there is the possible those segment of the software industry could grow to be bigger that todays software industry. It's been roughly 75 years since the world had one computer and a handful of programmers. Nobody would have predicted that humans would replace wristwatches with computers. The AI revolution is just beginning , but the state of technology could be so different that any predictions we make are likely to be worthless.
  - atleastoptimal 3y ago
    My point is how do you imagine that software will require 200 million people after it becomes more efficient due to AI? As a field becomes more efficient, unless demand increases, labor decreases. My question is, why would demand for human software labor increase? Not saying it won't happen, but I'd like to know what you're speculating will happen that will lead to that change, even if it's hard to pin down anything specific.
    - ChatGTP 3y ago
      So what do you think the future will look like, there will be a product owner sitting there on their own prompting the "auto-coder" and then having it deploy to prod? Flawlessly, no problems, no issues figuring anything out just writing words and having products spat out the other end? In my opinion, the more you can do, the more will be done. The business will want more, we're never going to run out of work to do. So it will be you, working with an "AI" or whatever just generating code and trying to deploy it at break neck speeds while the business has an existential crisis about what to do next. If AI is successful as you're making out, it sounds like everyone will be able to have a business, there will be no value in software creation, so the whole industry will be gone, it will just be about products and product delivery. Any current day developer can use the AI to build the things they want to build. It will just be different.
      - atleastoptimal 3y ago
        The current LLM prompt interface is just generation 1. GPT-4 already has visual input that isn't being shared with the public. As these models become more multi-modal, more ways of "sensing out" what their role in the world/company is, the more efficiently product owners can use them in space of a bunch of workers. It won't be an easy, seamless or cheap transition, but once the benefits start weighing up, there will be no going back. The point isn't whether or not the amount of work will increase, which is something I agree with as a given. The point is whether or not the rate of increase of capabilities of all AI labor will exceed the rate of increase of demand. I believe it will, which means the demand for human labor in that sector will go down. There are fewer farmers today than 50 years ago, both in absolute and relative terms, even though demand for food has risen exponentially, because the rate of efficiency increases due to farming equipment/techniques outpaced increase in demand.
        ChatGTP 3y ago
        So you can just be a product owner too ? As long as people don't get wiped out by AGI (who knows), we'll just go do something else. Who cares about this stuff? Personally, I'm a software developer and I really fucking hate the job, I hate being on a computer (destroys your health), I hate zoom calls, I don't really like "tech", I love being outside in the sunshine. If it ends with automation, thank fucking god really. I do my job for money, that is it. The existence humans have created for ourselves, staring at a box and pecking away at a keyboard is actually fucking idiotic when you think about it, it's the stupidest reality we could've come up with. I have had nightmares that I will be forced to continue working as a SWE because the number of SWEs who actually understand the full stack is diminishing. These are actual serious nightmares and I actually think there may even be some truth to them. I know people who are essentially bribed into continuing to work as a "pilots" for huge ships because no one else is qualified to do the job. So it does happen. Anyway, I think the situation you're describing is kind of moronic, because if companies automate everything with AI and no one has a job, there will be no economy, there will be no businesses, there will be no need to run AIs, there will be really not much left, just poverty. We'll all be fucked basically and then, a new dawn...

atleastoptimal 3y ago

I wonder why you believe the remaining 20% will require 200 million humans. What will those humans do that no AI could do or even hope to do?

themerone 3y ago
You completely missed the point. I'm just illustrating the possiblity that, if there are only tasks that humans can do, there is the possible those segment of the software industry could grow to be bigger that todays software industry. It's been roughly 75 years since the world had one computer and a handful of programmers. Nobody would have predicted that humans would replace wristwatches with computers. The AI revolution is just beginning , but the state of technology could be so different that any predictions we make are likely to be worthless.
- atleastoptimal 3y ago
  My point is how do you imagine that software will require 200 million people after it becomes more efficient due to AI? As a field becomes more efficient, unless demand increases, labor decreases. My question is, why would demand for human software labor increase? Not saying it won't happen, but I'd like to know what you're speculating will happen that will lead to that change, even if it's hard to pin down anything specific.
  - ChatGTP 3y ago
    So what do you think the future will look like, there will be a product owner sitting there on their own prompting the "auto-coder" and then having it deploy to prod? Flawlessly, no problems, no issues figuring anything out just writing words and having products spat out the other end? In my opinion, the more you can do, the more will be done. The business will want more, we're never going to run out of work to do. So it will be you, working with an "AI" or whatever just generating code and trying to deploy it at break neck speeds while the business has an existential crisis about what to do next. If AI is successful as you're making out, it sounds like everyone will be able to have a business, there will be no value in software creation, so the whole industry will be gone, it will just be about products and product delivery. Any current day developer can use the AI to build the things they want to build. It will just be different.
    - atleastoptimal 3y ago
      The current LLM prompt interface is just generation 1. GPT-4 already has visual input that isn't being shared with the public. As these models become more multi-modal, more ways of "sensing out" what their role in the world/company is, the more efficiently product owners can use them in space of a bunch of workers. It won't be an easy, seamless or cheap transition, but once the benefits start weighing up, there will be no going back. The point isn't whether or not the amount of work will increase, which is something I agree with as a given. The point is whether or not the rate of increase of capabilities of all AI labor will exceed the rate of increase of demand. I believe it will, which means the demand for human labor in that sector will go down. There are fewer farmers today than 50 years ago, both in absolute and relative terms, even though demand for food has risen exponentially, because the rate of efficiency increases due to farming equipment/techniques outpaced increase in demand.
      - ChatGTP 3y ago
        So you can just be a product owner too ? As long as people don't get wiped out by AGI (who knows), we'll just go do something else. Who cares about this stuff? Personally, I'm a software developer and I really fucking hate the job, I hate being on a computer (destroys your health), I hate zoom calls, I don't really like "tech", I love being outside in the sunshine. If it ends with automation, thank fucking god really. I do my job for money, that is it. The existence humans have created for ourselves, staring at a box and pecking away at a keyboard is actually fucking idiotic when you think about it, it's the stupidest reality we could've come up with. I have had nightmares that I will be forced to continue working as a SWE because the number of SWEs who actually understand the full stack is diminishing. These are actual serious nightmares and I actually think there may even be some truth to them. I know people who are essentially bribed into continuing to work as a "pilots" for huge ships because no one else is qualified to do the job. So it does happen. Anyway, I think the situation you're describing is kind of moronic, because if companies automate everything with AI and no one has a job, there will be no economy, there will be no businesses, there will be no need to run AIs, there will be really not much left, just poverty. We'll all be fucked basically and then, a new dawn...