This isn't at all like nuclear weapons though. Carbon emissions are demand based, and if China (the government or the people) thought that burning more carbon r

This isn't at all like nuclear weapons though. Carbon emissions are demand based, and if China (the government or the people) thought that burning more carbon right now would provide advantages (that are outweighed by whatever perceived cost they or their government imposes), they would do so. It's not like there's going to be a 'carbon emissions exchange' where everyone rapidly decides to start burning way more stuff... you need to do something with that energy generated.