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High prices reflect demand greater than supply. As much as I can also find things to complain about in urban living, it does not suffer from a lack of desirabil

High prices reflect demand greater than supply. As much as I can also find things to complain about in urban living, it does not suffer from a lack of desirability.

kibwen 3y ago
"Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."
shortrounddev2 3y ago
Then we have nothing to fear about emptying out cities and shrinking tax bases going to the suburbs. People will continue to live in the cities they do because they're great places to live. Case closed!
- closeparen 3y ago
  Cities also depend on tax revenue from commercial properties & businesses that primarily serve commuters. It's an issue, but distinct from where people choose to live.
  - shortrounddev2 3y ago
    It's not all about tax revenue, it's also about economic activity. If people who previously spent money in downtown areas on retail and food no longer have any reason to go to downtown areas, then jobs in those downtown areas will disappear. But if people continue to drive or commute out of their way or live in a more expensive city because they just really really like that city, then there will be no problem. My hypothesis is that most people do not want to live in these cities, for the reasons I mentioned above, and if we want to save the jobs that are now at risk because of these knock-on effects, then we need to make cities more livable for people and less drivable
    - closeparen 3y ago
      Indeed, most Americans do not want to live in Manhattan, that's why a nice 1BR there is only $5k/mo. Manhattan will be fine unless rents fall so low that buildings aren't worth maintaining or property tax receipts don't cover adequate services. That's far away.
      - shortrounddev2 3y ago
        Manhattan will survive; it survived the 1970s, it will survive falling demand for office buildings The article is concerned with mid sized cities though, which don't have the cultural appeal of Manhattan or other economic factors keeping it afloat. Some of these cities depend on the office jobs from a handful of companies
        7speter 3y ago
        The mta, which would be how you fulfill the “car-less city dream” in Manhattan is 50 billion dollars in debt.
- Arainach 3y ago
  Besides the suburbs being an unsustainable pyramid scheme, you mean? We're already seeing the start of cities going bankrupt or into heavy debt because all of the sewers and infrastructure they built 30-60 years ago need replacements that taxes can't possibly cover - and that's before you consider how subsidized the suburbs are with roads, cheap gas, and so on.
Arainach 3y ago
Not necessarily true. Investors treating real estate as a commodity (because everyone has to live somewhere) cause prices to skyrocket. AirBnB et. al removing long-term rental options to make unregulated hotels causes prices to skyrocket. Commercial landlords who would rather leave an apartment empty than drop the price cause prices to skyrocket. I agree that urban living is still desired, but that desire is only part of the price story.
- closeparen 3y ago
  Commodities are mass produced and widely available at stable prices. The problem with urban housing is it's not commodity-like at all.
rayiner 3y ago
Incorrect. Prices reflect the ratio of demand over supply. Something can be relatively undesirable to the whole population, but still expensive if the supply is sufficiently limited. Tiger penis is much more expensive than ribeye steaks. But ribeye steaks are more desirable across the whole population. Under 20% of the population wants to live in an urban area: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/americans-are-less-likely-than-before-covid-19-to-want-to-live-in-cities-more-likely-to-prefer-suburbs https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/america.... But far less than 20% of housing is in urban areas.
- closeparen 3y ago
  Perhaps if urban living were even more popular, condos could fetch $10k/sqft instead of $1k. But to the extent that today's cities are harmed by their level of desirability, it is still in the direction of being too desired relative to their capacity. $1k/sqft is still ludicrous.
  - shortrounddev2 3y ago
    sure they're too desired relative to their capacity, but that's a commentary on their capacity more than their desirability, which is low compared to suburbs or even farms
    - closeparen 3y ago
      I think we plausibly have a genuine glut of offices that no one wants or will ever want again. My argument is that the situation for residences is completely different. Even if urban neighborhoods were only half as popular next year, we would still need to produce quite a bit more of them.
      - shortrounddev2 3y ago
        We should be building urban housing like fucking crazy, but we also need to fix issues that make cities less desirable to live in. I firmly believe that cities have become undesirable because we have allowed suburbs to dictate their growth trajectory. Rather than building walkable cities for those that live there, some cities have carved interstate highways through their hearts in order to appease suburban commuters. This leads to all kinds of problems with livability that makes people not want to live in cities.

High prices reflect demand greater than supply. As much as I can also find things to complain about in urban living, it does not suffer from a lack of desirability.

kibwen 3y ago

"Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."

shortrounddev2 3y ago

Then we have nothing to fear about emptying out cities and shrinking tax bases going to the suburbs. People will continue to live in the cities they do because they're great places to live. Case closed!

closeparen 3y ago
Cities also depend on tax revenue from commercial properties & businesses that primarily serve commuters. It's an issue, but distinct from where people choose to live.
- shortrounddev2 3y ago
  It's not all about tax revenue, it's also about economic activity. If people who previously spent money in downtown areas on retail and food no longer have any reason to go to downtown areas, then jobs in those downtown areas will disappear. But if people continue to drive or commute out of their way or live in a more expensive city because they just really really like that city, then there will be no problem. My hypothesis is that most people do not want to live in these cities, for the reasons I mentioned above, and if we want to save the jobs that are now at risk because of these knock-on effects, then we need to make cities more livable for people and less drivable
  - closeparen 3y ago
    Indeed, most Americans do not want to live in Manhattan, that's why a nice 1BR there is only $5k/mo. Manhattan will be fine unless rents fall so low that buildings aren't worth maintaining or property tax receipts don't cover adequate services. That's far away.
    - shortrounddev2 3y ago
      Manhattan will survive; it survived the 1970s, it will survive falling demand for office buildings The article is concerned with mid sized cities though, which don't have the cultural appeal of Manhattan or other economic factors keeping it afloat. Some of these cities depend on the office jobs from a handful of companies
      - 7speter 3y ago
        The mta, which would be how you fulfill the “car-less city dream” in Manhattan is 50 billion dollars in debt.
Arainach 3y ago
Besides the suburbs being an unsustainable pyramid scheme, you mean? We're already seeing the start of cities going bankrupt or into heavy debt because all of the sewers and infrastructure they built 30-60 years ago need replacements that taxes can't possibly cover - and that's before you consider how subsidized the suburbs are with roads, cheap gas, and so on.

Arainach 3y ago

Not necessarily true. Investors treating real estate as a commodity (because everyone has to live somewhere) cause prices to skyrocket. AirBnB et. al removing long-term rental options to make unregulated hotels causes prices to skyrocket. Commercial landlords who would rather leave an apartment empty than drop the price cause prices to skyrocket. I agree that urban living is still desired, but that desire is only part of the price story.

closeparen 3y ago
Commodities are mass produced and widely available at stable prices. The problem with urban housing is it's not commodity-like at all.

rayiner 3y ago

Incorrect. Prices reflect the ratio of demand over supply. Something can be relatively undesirable to the whole population, but still expensive if the supply is sufficiently limited. Tiger penis is much more expensive than ribeye steaks. But ribeye steaks are more desirable across the whole population. Under 20% of the population wants to live in an urban area: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/americans-are-less-likely-than-before-covid-19-to-want-to-live-in-cities-more-likely-to-prefer-suburbs https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/america.... But far less than 20% of housing is in urban areas.

closeparen 3y ago
Perhaps if urban living were even more popular, condos could fetch $10k/sqft instead of $1k. But to the extent that today's cities are harmed by their level of desirability, it is still in the direction of being too desired relative to their capacity. $1k/sqft is still ludicrous.
- shortrounddev2 3y ago
  sure they're too desired relative to their capacity, but that's a commentary on their capacity more than their desirability, which is low compared to suburbs or even farms
  - closeparen 3y ago
    I think we plausibly have a genuine glut of offices that no one wants or will ever want again. My argument is that the situation for residences is completely different. Even if urban neighborhoods were only half as popular next year, we would still need to produce quite a bit more of them.
    - shortrounddev2 3y ago
      We should be building urban housing like fucking crazy, but we also need to fix issues that make cities less desirable to live in. I firmly believe that cities have become undesirable because we have allowed suburbs to dictate their growth trajectory. Rather than building walkable cities for those that live there, some cities have carved interstate highways through their hearts in order to appease suburban commuters. This leads to all kinds of problems with livability that makes people not want to live in cities.