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If you think that: * It is possible to create von Neumann probes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft * At least some percentage of c

by ericb 3y ago

If you think that: * It is possible to create von Neumann probes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft * At least some percentage of civilizations would create them * The odds of intelligent life occurring around a star is less than one in 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (the number of stars) Then, in all odds, they should be here already. And why move on, when von Neumann probes are "free" in that they have zero marginal cost?

bloopernova 3y ago
If you've seen a million planets evolve life, you might not want to gather any more data. We're probably just not very interesting.
- david-gpu 3y ago
  > If you've seen a million planets evolve life, you might not want to gather any more data. > We're probably just not very interesting. Yet we humans continue to explore our solar system and find all sorts of things intriguing, from exo-geology to weather patterns in other planets, to the life cycle of the most insignificant beetle. I think it is far too early to be making assumptions about what could motivate a hypothetical alien probe to explore this planet.
- kcplate 3y ago
  >…not very interesting Doubtful, our ability just to contemplate the question makes us very interesting. In the one place in the universe where we know without a doubt that life exists—tens of millions of different sorts critters had to come into being, then fail or succeed as a species and evolve, only for a single species to manage to emerge to the point where it could actually ponder the notion of “hey! what if there is other intelligent life out there…and why haven’t they contacted us yet?” Also throw in the fact that it took nearly a full third of the age of the universe for our species to get to that point and it seems pretty likely that intelligence to our level is very rare. So yes, a billion different sorts of amoebas might be meh, but a species capable of sending a package into interstellar space—that might pique something’s interest (assuming there is something out there whose interest could be piqued)

by ericb 3y ago

bloopernova 3y ago

If you've seen a million planets evolve life, you might not want to gather any more data. We're probably just not very interesting.

david-gpu 3y ago
> If you've seen a million planets evolve life, you might not want to gather any more data. > We're probably just not very interesting. Yet we humans continue to explore our solar system and find all sorts of things intriguing, from exo-geology to weather patterns in other planets, to the life cycle of the most insignificant beetle. I think it is far too early to be making assumptions about what could motivate a hypothetical alien probe to explore this planet.
kcplate 3y ago
>…not very interesting Doubtful, our ability just to contemplate the question makes us very interesting. In the one place in the universe where we know without a doubt that life exists—tens of millions of different sorts critters had to come into being, then fail or succeed as a species and evolve, only for a single species to manage to emerge to the point where it could actually ponder the notion of “hey! what if there is other intelligent life out there…and why haven’t they contacted us yet?” Also throw in the fact that it took nearly a full third of the age of the universe for our species to get to that point and it seems pretty likely that intelligence to our level is very rare. So yes, a billion different sorts of amoebas might be meh, but a species capable of sending a package into interstellar space—that might pique something’s interest (assuming there is something out there whose interest could be piqued)