All the analysis I have seen comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated population suggest they reduce the risk of getting infected by 20-30% in the short term,

All the analysis I have seen comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated population suggest they reduce the risk of getting infected by 20-30% in the short term, which for a virus that infectious doesn't really change anything. At the time we were told the delta variant was 20 times more infectious than the previous strains, so downgrading it to 15 time more infectious won't really make any difference (those numbers were probably bullshit like most numbers comming from epidemiologists but that logic stands whatever the real infection rate was, as long as it is a very high rate).