8 ms·

California population size projected to stagnate

31 points by lxm 3y ago

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
gnfargbl 3y ago
https://archive.is/l6Cpc https://archive.is/l6Cpc
paxys 3y ago
So, they used a trend from the last three years to forecast the population for the next 40...makes perfect sense. Unless they can predict every economic boom and bust, every political shift, every new technology and other growth areas and much more, this report isn't worth the paper it is printed on. In 2019 the forecast would have been the exact opposite, and in another 3 years it can flip again.
- ROTMetro 3y ago
  There are more California plates in mine and the surrounding towns than there have been in the last 20 years. California wasn't about boom and bust, it was about optimism. The oil patch is boom/bust and it adds to making it a horrible place to live. Old California was buying a cheap vw van for $800, getting a bunch of friends together and going on a surf trip to baja. Having fun and being unpretentious. New California is paying $30,000 for a vanagon and making videos of it by yourself to post to the internet.
snide 3y ago
Migrated out in 2020. These were my reasons: - Covid made me realize how important being close to family was. - Three straight years of serious wildfires, along with the general unease of a predictable rainfall pattern put me at unease. - At that point I'd been working remote for 8 years. It took that long for me to feel confident I could easily get fun, well-paying jobs outside of the Bay Area. - The Bay Area felt like a mono-culture despite it's marketing otherwise. - The housing market was pretty silly. Got a lot more house for less money moving. Things I miss: - The produce is better in California. - The restaurant variety in the Bay Area is superb. - Harder to find certain type of nerd friends. Surprises - I don't actually miss the weather, and sort of prefer having seasons again. - The schools are better where we moved. My wife is a teacher and was sort of floored by this. Both areas were "great" school districts, and I admit region to region can always have variance. Still, we didn't expect this.
- aidenn0 3y ago
  > Covid made me realize how important being close to family was. Ironically, being close to family is the primary reason why I haven't sold my house for seven figures more than I paid for it and nope-d out of CA (not the Bay Area though). The schools are mediocre at best where I am and it just seems to me that it's not sustainable to have a functioning community with housing costs where they currently are, which implies that at some point I'll be living in either a non-functioning community or will have left a million dollars on the table by having not moved away sooner.
- ROTMetro 3y ago
  Seasons get less nice the older you get. At first I loved them, but 20 years on I really wish I was in California and just went to Tahoe to get my snow fix. If you leave California, think hard about how much snow you have to remove when looking at homes. My ex was smart and she nixed a lot of homes with crazy long driveways because she knew. Also remember that in super heavy snow you don't just shovel the sidewalk/driveway but also the roof to prevent collapse. I miss California so much, but then I grew up there.
  - CameronNemo 3y ago
    California gets snow though? People forget how big of a state it really is. My family friend was facing a four figure cost to dig out their Truckee cabin this past winter.
    - reducesuffering 3y ago
      That's why they said "just went to Tahoe to get my snow fix." Truckee is Tahoe. The Sierra Nevada mountains are really the only places in CA that get real snow. Most people visit them though as only 1% of the state lives there, hence no daily snow shoveling.
  - sydbarrett74 3y ago
    With climate change unabated, the seasonal variability in most parts of the country will largely cease to be hot vs cold. In more and more places, it will be hot vs hotter.
hifromLA 3y ago
A genuine question from a life long Californian: do other states not have problems? It seems like there’s an entire cottage industry dedicated to negative news about California. Obviously we have some challenges, but my feeling is that we are at least taking baby steps in the right direction w.r.t. the kinds of policy solutions we need (even if the execution is not always perfect and things don’t happen fast enough).
- sys_64738 3y ago
  The elephant in the room is that insurance companies are not renewing policies due to bankruptcy or leaving the state. FL and CA are the biggest problems with the wildfires and increased hurricanes.
- colechristensen 3y ago
  The problems in California are, in my experience, considerably worse than other places. Everywhere else has the same problems, but they aren't as bad. Rent isn't as high, the homelessness issues are lower, the local governments are somewhat less ridiculous...
  - PopAlongKid 3y ago
    >Everywhere else has the same problems, but they aren't as bad. On a per capita basis, yes they are.
    - colechristensen 3y ago
      They're not. For example, I no longer have to step over human feces and used needles. My rent is literally half what it used to be. I was paying twice as much to live in a place with less space and more unpleasantness, and I don't how how you make any of those "per capita" problems because everyone experienced them.
      - PopAlongKid 3y ago
        >For example, I no longer have to step over human feces and used needles. My rent is literally half what it used to be. You could move to hundreds of places within CA and make the same claim.
colechristensen 3y ago
The new competitive advantage for states is going to be low rent. A "healthy economy" for people who make their money owning real estate drives away people who do things for a living. This includes people whose retirement plans rest mostly on the value of their house going up.
Simulacra 3y ago
A dearth of young people and immigrants also will mean less consumer spending, and a smaller labor force, threatening the dynamism that has fueled California’s growth for decades. This paragraph confused me. If I recall correctly, California has a high amount of welcomed immigration. Would that not continue to balance increase the population even if people leave?
- tharne 3y ago
  > If I recall correctly, California has a high amount of welcomed immigration. Would that not continue to balance increase the population even if people leave? Only up to a point. Immigrants don't want to deal with prohibitively expensive housing any more than anyone else. They may settle in California initially, but a lot of immigrants end up moving to other states with more affordable housing once they get established.
aworks 3y ago
"Suddenly, the Golden State, so proudly aware of its popularity, finds itself having to rethink its identity." This strikes me as a silly sentence, in multiple ways.
semanticjudo 3y ago
There is one measure of a government that has never failed: are people trying to get in or are people trying to get out? California's government - federal electives, state and many local have been making decisions and putting in place policies that we are now seeing the consequences of. The pandemic didn't create the problem - it poured gas on the fire. The elected officials of the last 30-40 years created the problem. The housing shortage is 100% a government created problem. The homeless "problem" is 100% a government created problem. We don't have to solve these problems - we can continue on as we are which is likely because it is the path of least resistance (accountability is hard for people and governments). But let's be honest about why things are the way they are.
- PopAlongKid 3y ago
  >There is one measure of a government that has never failed: are people trying to get in or are people trying to get out? Can you provide the units in which this "measurement" is made? What about other measures of government? How does California perform on those scales? Should it be the overriding goal of government to appeal (or appease) those citizens who are already on the margin of leaving anyway? Or should it strive to better serve those who stay?
galaxytachyon 3y ago
I know most people here might not like this, but honest question, besides the fact that there are lots of jobs around the Bay Area and LA, why would anyone want to settle down in California? The place is almost hostile to having a family or to anyone not in the upper middle class. Housing is ridiculous. Utilities are ridiculous. Political issues are rampant. Homeless and crimes everywhere. Owning a car or anything bigger than a bike is a hassle and full of cost and regulations. Racial and political ideologues are everywhere including in schools and they have tremendous influence. One can lose their entire livelihood if they were found to have "wrongthink" by these ideologues. Correct me if I am wrong on any of those because that is my impression after living in SF for a while. CA is great for vacations or if you have a stable 200-300k salary (except software, no other career can afford this unless you are in very senior levels). Otherwise imo, it isn't worth it to stay there. The big companies seem to agree and are moving out. The moment CA lose its only lure which is jobs, it will be a death spiral.
- CameronNemo 3y ago
  Racial and political ideologues are everywhere including in schools and they have tremendous influence. One can lose their entire livelihood if they were found to have "wrongthink" by these ideologues. Is there a place on earth where this isn't the case?
- Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
  I dream of moving to Santa Clarita (not to be confused with Santa Clara) so I can be close to Six Flags Magic Mountain. I'm a huge roller coaster fanatic, but I live in Portland, OR. The nearest park worth going to is Silverwood in Idaho, which is a ~8-hour drive. Alternatively is Six Flags Discovery Kingdom in Vallejo, CA, which is also ~10 hours away. I'd also like to escape Portland's extreme dreary fall/winter seasons of nearly constant overcast clouds and rain, even if it effectively means permanent summer. What's keeping me in Portland? Basically everything you mentioned. Technically, I'm in Beaverton, a suburb just outside of Portland, so I don't have most of the Portland problems which are similar to California problems but on a smaller scale. But also, both me and my wife have all of our close family and friends in Oregon. If we moved to California, we'd be leaving everyone we know behind.
instagib 3y ago
5th largest economy in the world ahead of India and behind Germany. It puts a nice frame around issues. Median home price 830k per the article. Less according to an older census number: 573k. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/CA/PST045222 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/CA/PST045222
dave333 3y ago
There are ways to house yourself cheaply in California such as in San Jose mobile home parks with rent controlled space rents around $1000/month that are roughly equivalent to taxes on a SFH. 1500 sq ft mobile home costs about 1/4 what a SFH does. I live in a senior park and it is surprisingly pleasant - mostly quiet and a nice sense of community.

31 points by lxm 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

gnfargbl 3y ago

https://archive.is/l6Cpc https://archive.is/l6Cpc

paxys 3y ago

So, they used a trend from the last three years to forecast the population for the next 40...makes perfect sense. Unless they can predict every economic boom and bust, every political shift, every new technology and other growth areas and much more, this report isn't worth the paper it is printed on. In 2019 the forecast would have been the exact opposite, and in another 3 years it can flip again.

ROTMetro 3y ago
There are more California plates in mine and the surrounding towns than there have been in the last 20 years. California wasn't about boom and bust, it was about optimism. The oil patch is boom/bust and it adds to making it a horrible place to live. Old California was buying a cheap vw van for $800, getting a bunch of friends together and going on a surf trip to baja. Having fun and being unpretentious. New California is paying $30,000 for a vanagon and making videos of it by yourself to post to the internet.

snide 3y ago

Migrated out in 2020. These were my reasons: - Covid made me realize how important being close to family was. - Three straight years of serious wildfires, along with the general unease of a predictable rainfall pattern put me at unease. - At that point I'd been working remote for 8 years. It took that long for me to feel confident I could easily get fun, well-paying jobs outside of the Bay Area. - The Bay Area felt like a mono-culture despite it's marketing otherwise. - The housing market was pretty silly. Got a lot more house for less money moving. Things I miss: - The produce is better in California. - The restaurant variety in the Bay Area is superb. - Harder to find certain type of nerd friends. Surprises - I don't actually miss the weather, and sort of prefer having seasons again. - The schools are better where we moved. My wife is a teacher and was sort of floored by this. Both areas were "great" school districts, and I admit region to region can always have variance. Still, we didn't expect this.

aidenn0 3y ago
> Covid made me realize how important being close to family was. Ironically, being close to family is the primary reason why I haven't sold my house for seven figures more than I paid for it and nope-d out of CA (not the Bay Area though). The schools are mediocre at best where I am and it just seems to me that it's not sustainable to have a functioning community with housing costs where they currently are, which implies that at some point I'll be living in either a non-functioning community or will have left a million dollars on the table by having not moved away sooner.
ROTMetro 3y ago
Seasons get less nice the older you get. At first I loved them, but 20 years on I really wish I was in California and just went to Tahoe to get my snow fix. If you leave California, think hard about how much snow you have to remove when looking at homes. My ex was smart and she nixed a lot of homes with crazy long driveways because she knew. Also remember that in super heavy snow you don't just shovel the sidewalk/driveway but also the roof to prevent collapse. I miss California so much, but then I grew up there.
- CameronNemo 3y ago
  California gets snow though? People forget how big of a state it really is. My family friend was facing a four figure cost to dig out their Truckee cabin this past winter.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    That's why they said "just went to Tahoe to get my snow fix." Truckee is Tahoe. The Sierra Nevada mountains are really the only places in CA that get real snow. Most people visit them though as only 1% of the state lives there, hence no daily snow shoveling.
- sydbarrett74 3y ago
  With climate change unabated, the seasonal variability in most parts of the country will largely cease to be hot vs cold. In more and more places, it will be hot vs hotter.

hifromLA 3y ago

A genuine question from a life long Californian: do other states not have problems? It seems like there’s an entire cottage industry dedicated to negative news about California. Obviously we have some challenges, but my feeling is that we are at least taking baby steps in the right direction w.r.t. the kinds of policy solutions we need (even if the execution is not always perfect and things don’t happen fast enough).

sys_64738 3y ago
The elephant in the room is that insurance companies are not renewing policies due to bankruptcy or leaving the state. FL and CA are the biggest problems with the wildfires and increased hurricanes.
colechristensen 3y ago
The problems in California are, in my experience, considerably worse than other places. Everywhere else has the same problems, but they aren't as bad. Rent isn't as high, the homelessness issues are lower, the local governments are somewhat less ridiculous...
- PopAlongKid 3y ago
  >Everywhere else has the same problems, but they aren't as bad. On a per capita basis, yes they are.
  - colechristensen 3y ago
    They're not. For example, I no longer have to step over human feces and used needles. My rent is literally half what it used to be. I was paying twice as much to live in a place with less space and more unpleasantness, and I don't how how you make any of those "per capita" problems because everyone experienced them.
    - PopAlongKid 3y ago
      >For example, I no longer have to step over human feces and used needles. My rent is literally half what it used to be. You could move to hundreds of places within CA and make the same claim.

colechristensen 3y ago

The new competitive advantage for states is going to be low rent. A "healthy economy" for people who make their money owning real estate drives away people who do things for a living. This includes people whose retirement plans rest mostly on the value of their house going up.

Simulacra 3y ago

A dearth of young people and immigrants also will mean less consumer spending, and a smaller labor force, threatening the dynamism that has fueled California’s growth for decades. This paragraph confused me. If I recall correctly, California has a high amount of welcomed immigration. Would that not continue to balance increase the population even if people leave?

tharne 3y ago
> If I recall correctly, California has a high amount of welcomed immigration. Would that not continue to balance increase the population even if people leave? Only up to a point. Immigrants don't want to deal with prohibitively expensive housing any more than anyone else. They may settle in California initially, but a lot of immigrants end up moving to other states with more affordable housing once they get established.

aworks 3y ago

"Suddenly, the Golden State, so proudly aware of its popularity, finds itself having to rethink its identity." This strikes me as a silly sentence, in multiple ways.

semanticjudo 3y ago

There is one measure of a government that has never failed: are people trying to get in or are people trying to get out? California's government - federal electives, state and many local have been making decisions and putting in place policies that we are now seeing the consequences of. The pandemic didn't create the problem - it poured gas on the fire. The elected officials of the last 30-40 years created the problem. The housing shortage is 100% a government created problem. The homeless "problem" is 100% a government created problem. We don't have to solve these problems - we can continue on as we are which is likely because it is the path of least resistance (accountability is hard for people and governments). But let's be honest about why things are the way they are.

PopAlongKid 3y ago
>There is one measure of a government that has never failed: are people trying to get in or are people trying to get out? Can you provide the units in which this "measurement" is made? What about other measures of government? How does California perform on those scales? Should it be the overriding goal of government to appeal (or appease) those citizens who are already on the margin of leaving anyway? Or should it strive to better serve those who stay?

galaxytachyon 3y ago

I know most people here might not like this, but honest question, besides the fact that there are lots of jobs around the Bay Area and LA, why would anyone want to settle down in California? The place is almost hostile to having a family or to anyone not in the upper middle class. Housing is ridiculous. Utilities are ridiculous. Political issues are rampant. Homeless and crimes everywhere. Owning a car or anything bigger than a bike is a hassle and full of cost and regulations. Racial and political ideologues are everywhere including in schools and they have tremendous influence. One can lose their entire livelihood if they were found to have "wrongthink" by these ideologues. Correct me if I am wrong on any of those because that is my impression after living in SF for a while. CA is great for vacations or if you have a stable 200-300k salary (except software, no other career can afford this unless you are in very senior levels). Otherwise imo, it isn't worth it to stay there. The big companies seem to agree and are moving out. The moment CA lose its only lure which is jobs, it will be a death spiral.

CameronNemo 3y ago
Racial and political ideologues are everywhere including in schools and they have tremendous influence. One can lose their entire livelihood if they were found to have "wrongthink" by these ideologues. Is there a place on earth where this isn't the case?
Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
I dream of moving to Santa Clarita (not to be confused with Santa Clara) so I can be close to Six Flags Magic Mountain. I'm a huge roller coaster fanatic, but I live in Portland, OR. The nearest park worth going to is Silverwood in Idaho, which is a ~8-hour drive. Alternatively is Six Flags Discovery Kingdom in Vallejo, CA, which is also ~10 hours away. I'd also like to escape Portland's extreme dreary fall/winter seasons of nearly constant overcast clouds and rain, even if it effectively means permanent summer. What's keeping me in Portland? Basically everything you mentioned. Technically, I'm in Beaverton, a suburb just outside of Portland, so I don't have most of the Portland problems which are similar to California problems but on a smaller scale. But also, both me and my wife have all of our close family and friends in Oregon. If we moved to California, we'd be leaving everyone we know behind.

instagib 3y ago

5th largest economy in the world ahead of India and behind Germany. It puts a nice frame around issues. Median home price 830k per the article. Less according to an older census number: 573k. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/CA/PST045222 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/CA/PST045222

dave333 3y ago

There are ways to house yourself cheaply in California such as in San Jose mobile home parks with rent controlled space rents around $1000/month that are roughly equivalent to taxes on a SFH. 1500 sq ft mobile home costs about 1/4 what a SFH does. I live in a senior park and it is surprisingly pleasant - mostly quiet and a nice sense of community.