30 ms·

Are you saying AIDS has gotten less deadly over time?

by soperj 3y ago

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
datadeft 3y ago
Yes. The latest variants are less deadly. There is a pretty good reason for that. If the infected lives longer it has a higher chance of a successful transmission.
- soperj 3y ago
  What are you basing this on? Looks like deaths peaked in 2004, but more people in Africa are receiving treatment. Without treatment the avg life expectancy seems to be 11 years, and doesn't look like that's changed.
  - datadeft 3y ago
    I think there are several factors in when the deaths peaked. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697
- MichaelZuo 3y ago
  Can you link to a source?
  - datadeft 3y ago
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697
FredPret 3y ago
I think it actually has - AIDS is the worst but life expectancy has improved a lot
- soperj 3y ago
  Because of better treatments? or has it really just been the AIDS virus evolving?
  - berbec 3y ago
    I imagine we won't know because of HIV's long life in the body, properly medicated. No one is willing to run a study to determine that, as it essentially sentences the control group to death.
ebiester 3y ago
If you take into account the lifecycle of HIV, it can take 2-15 years to develop stage 3. (Stage 3 is the symptomatic part. People on medication may never reach stage 3.) As such, a transmission generation even of SARS-CoV-2 is going to be on the order of days. HIV can be on the order of years. So, there are different evolutionary pressures. If we find out that Covid is actually latent in all of us years later (unlikely because we would have likely seen it with SARS-1 or MERS), then all bets would be off.
- soperj 3y ago
  This makes sense. Would also make sense why AIDS hasn't evolved to become less deadly, but it also brings up that covid hasn't had a bottleneck in terms of transmission. The main reason why one strain has replaced another has been that more recent strains are more transmissible. Delta was more deadly (and transmissible) than alpha, beta & the original strain, and came later for instance. I think we got lucky with omicron, which evolved from alpha if i'm not mistaken.

Are you saying AIDS has gotten less deadly over time?

by soperj 3y ago

Are you saying AIDS has gotten less deadly over time?

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

datadeft 3y ago

Yes. The latest variants are less deadly. There is a pretty good reason for that. If the infected lives longer it has a higher chance of a successful transmission.

soperj 3y ago
What are you basing this on? Looks like deaths peaked in 2004, but more people in Africa are receiving treatment. Without treatment the avg life expectancy seems to be 11 years, and doesn't look like that's changed.
- datadeft 3y ago
  I think there are several factors in when the deaths peaked. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697
MichaelZuo 3y ago
Can you link to a source?
- datadeft 3y ago
  https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-30254697

FredPret 3y ago

I think it actually has - AIDS is the worst but life expectancy has improved a lot

soperj 3y ago
Because of better treatments? or has it really just been the AIDS virus evolving?
- berbec 3y ago
  I imagine we won't know because of HIV's long life in the body, properly medicated. No one is willing to run a study to determine that, as it essentially sentences the control group to death.

ebiester 3y ago

If you take into account the lifecycle of HIV, it can take 2-15 years to develop stage 3. (Stage 3 is the symptomatic part. People on medication may never reach stage 3.) As such, a transmission generation even of SARS-CoV-2 is going to be on the order of days. HIV can be on the order of years. So, there are different evolutionary pressures. If we find out that Covid is actually latent in all of us years later (unlikely because we would have likely seen it with SARS-1 or MERS), then all bets would be off.

soperj 3y ago
This makes sense. Would also make sense why AIDS hasn't evolved to become less deadly, but it also brings up that covid hasn't had a bottleneck in terms of transmission. The main reason why one strain has replaced another has been that more recent strains are more transmissible. Delta was more deadly (and transmissible) than alpha, beta & the original strain, and came later for instance. I think we got lucky with omicron, which evolved from alpha if i'm not mistaken.