Your repeated discount of "it's shrinking and has been shrinking" with "we just don't know" is like saying that because you won't be around in 100 years you als

Your repeated discount of "it's shrinking and has been shrinking" with "we just don't know" is like saying that because you won't be around in 100 years you also can't make claims about whether the sun will come up. I won't be around in 100 years either but I am sure IBM won't survive for the same reason I'm sure the sun will rise: all rigorous analysis today indicates it.