The economy is doing fine because 4-5% growth is fine. It's Japan growth rate from mid 70s, or SKR in 00s. JP is 5x larger economy than mid 70s. SKR is closer t

The economy is doing fine because 4-5% growth is fine. It's Japan growth rate from mid 70s, or SKR in 00s. JP is 5x larger economy than mid 70s. SKR is closer to 3x than 00s. I don't know if one calls that trajectory vibrant, but PRC 3-5x bigger than it is now in 25-50 years is charitably, fine. Especially vs most others. Which is important framing, because it's PRC vs others not PRC vs PRC's past. (Urban) Youth unemployment is high because PRC talent pipeline is finally firing on all cyclinders and graduating largest cohort of 12m this year. Even 50% youth unemployment that's 6m new skilled entering workforce, trending towards 50-100m of just new STEM by 2050, when US set to expand by 40m population total. Broad unemployment 5%, meaning youth get jobs eventually. Is it a challenge to make so many skilled jobs? Yes, but reality is even reaping 50% is the greatest skilled demographic divident in recorded history concentrated in one country. And this is demographically baked in based on previous 22-30 years of birth (cohorts for future tertiary). Geoeconomically, vs west who has talent shortage, youth unemployment curse / challenge is also blessing of not knowing what to do with excess talent, as PRC moves from 25% skilled workforce of developing country to 50/60/70+ of advanced economies by hammering tertiary according to plan. For reference current PRC has like (napkin math) ~25M STEM (many fresh) vs US ~35M. If she's @50% youth unemployment that's 4-5 years before eclipsing US in STEM pool. That's a recipe for an economy doing fine, where by fine is enough talent to compete with US/west in every sector. Hence even dogshit baseline of PRC 50% unemployment rate, as in permenant, 50% of PRC youths becomes NEET and not eventually finding jobs like current stats reflect (and basic common sense), PRC is still US/west bloc peer competitor territory. Potential of PRC doing dogshit is inherently very high due to scale, let alone fine. Exports dropping because EVERYONE's exports dropping due to global contraction. Meanwhile PRC increased exports by 1T in last 4 years, more than the previous 10. It's categorically the largest expansion in globalism, also in recorded history. And currently holding on to much of it - her exports is dropping less than others who are MORE export depedentant as % of GDP (20% vs export dependent being 40-90%). This is a 5 steps forward 1 step back drop, not 1 step forward 2 steps back of media framing. FDI has been neglible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP in PRC is ~40% vs EU/US/OECD 20-30%. Losing FDI is relative to PRC domestic investment, a paper cut. FDI value is so far = foreign investors have more experienced / risk taking / guidance. But that's a skill indigenous investors need to develop eventually, especially now that it's (again deliberately) unwinding RE so people stop sinking so much savings into housing to direct investment in more productive sectors. TLDR is western reporting over inflates the challenges PRC faces. Some are difficult, maybe even serious. Certainly not "disaster"ous. But many signs people think are serious are not really. IMO nothing as challenging as 90s SEO / iron rice bowl reforms. Trends point to PRC being fine. And PRC being fine, relative to rest/west, is PRC comprehensive power growing greatly.