6 ms·

Companies can just relocate to right to work states which they have been doing.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Perpetual labor shortages due to structural demographics and the decline of conservatism due to the 55+ death rate means this will only work so long [1] [2]. [1] https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... [2] https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge-spark-forever-labor-shortage-jobs-workers-2023-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge...
- jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
  Then they'll move their factories overseas. Unions do not have a monopoly on workers.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Tariffs are an option as demographics tilt to the Left politically to encourage domestic workforce investment [1]. Capital and economic systems should serve humans, not make it straightforward exploitation for a few folks with big numbers in rows in a database [2]. China is rapidly decelerating economically because it got old so fast [3], and most of the world outside of India and Africa isn't far behind [4] [5]. TLDR Capitalism is running out of young productivity to squeeze for profits. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37052550 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37052550 [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/the-wealthiest-10percent-of-americans-own-a-record-89percent-of-all-us-stocks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/the-wealthiest-10percent-of-... [3] https://www.axios.com/2023/08/26/chinas-slow-moving-economic-disaster https://www.axios.com/2023/08/26/chinas-slow-moving-economic... [4] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-... [5] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Anal...
    - jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
      It's quite ironic that you say that "economic systems should serve humans" but then support "tariffs" which will significantly increase the cost of living for the aforementioned humans.
      - medvezhenok 3y ago
        Those are two different groups of humans we are talking about. Cheap labor benefits consumers - primarily older people who are using savings (workers get higher prices as well, but they also get higher wages, so they're likely to win on net). Tariffs benefit domestic industries at the expense [primarily] of the people on savings/fixed incomes.
        jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
        How exactly are they getting higher wages if their union factory jobs are moved overseas?
        true_religion 3y ago
        The tariff is there to stop the factory from wanting to move overseas.
  - johnnyanmac 3y ago
    companies have been touting outsourcing across all industries as a solution and fear for decades. What makes it different this time?
runnerup 3y ago
Walmart is the largest employer in 21 states[0]. How would they exit operations in a state and still earn income from their brick and mortar stores in that state? Sure, they could move some centralized distribution centers if they're already kind of close to a convenient border, but for the most part they need the employees they have in each state because they're fundamentally a last-mile organization. That said, NLRB/FTC/FCC/CFPB/etc regulatory rules are typically quickly reversed after presidents from opposing political parties take office. They are extremely weak on moderate timescales, compared to statutory legislation, which tends to stick around more often between shifts in power between parties. 0: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/walmart-nation-largest-employers/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/walmart-nation-largest-empl...
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  > How would they exit operations in a state and still earn income from their brick and mortar stores in that state? Sell a store to an independent operator who in turn hires workers, then sell goods to the independent operator, something like that.
  - runnerup 3y ago
    In this hypothetical, communities would see the same effects as if Walmart chose not to exit. They would just shop and work at "Not-Walmart", same as the old Walmart. Some might argue prices might increase due to an additional corporate layer, but then the question I would have is why wouldn't Walmart just raise the prices themselves and take those extra available profits for themselves? I'd assume Walmart is already doing what they can to maximize net profit.
    - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
      > In this hypothetical, communities would see the same effects as if Walmart chose not to exit. They would just shop and work at "Not-Walmart", same as the old Walmart. Not-Walmart is a different company that doesn't have a union, and if they should get one, actual Walmart can start selling goods to some different Not-Walmart who doesn't. Then Not-Walmart #2 drives Not-Walmart #1 out of business by offering lower prices if the union manages to increase Not-Walmart #1's labor costs. After people have seen this happen they realize the union can't actually secure them more than the wages available in the free market without causing them to lose their jobs, so when they take a job at Not-Walmart #2 they wonder why they would want to spend time organizing another union and paying dues. > Some might argue prices might increase due to an additional corporate layer, but then the question I would have is why wouldn't Walmart just raise the prices themselves and take those extra available profits for themselves? These kinds of operations often have minimal overhead. Existing Walmart pays a salary to a store manager. Not-Walmart is owned by the person who would have been the store manager and makes "profit" equal to what Walmart would have had to pay in salary.
gopher_space 3y ago
A lot of the online chatter in the trades revolves around pay and working conditions. Right to work states pay way less (that’s the point) and have worse conditions. Politics are rarely mentioned, but everyone knows there’s better work “up north”.
- jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
  How is there "better" work when almost all of the new factories are opening in (or relocating to) right to work states? TSMC is opening the chip factories in Phoenix in a state that has right to work laws. Intel is opening one in Ohio, another right to work state. Samsung is opening their factory in Texas.
  - runnerup 3y ago
    It would be interesting to see a breakdown of heavy industry vs. commercial vs. residential for tradespeople. Despite that I've worked extensively in manufacturing facilities for oil and gas / chemicals industries throughout the southern US, most of the electricians I know personally work in residential and commercial so I'm not sure they care where those new factories are being installed, as they won't be taking those contracts. All the ironworkers I know personally work on government contracts and commercial skyscrapers. At the same time, 100% of the union pipefitters and welders I know work in chemical plants. I follow quite a few of the subreddits for trades (r/trades, r/electricians, etc) and I can say that GP's comment rings true there. But I work primarily in TX/Louisiana/Mississippi, and the sentiment among tradespeople here is highly variable. There's a lot keeping people where their families and friends are, and there's a great amount of distrust for any information which leads to a decision they don't want to make. Generally in TX I've had better experiences in the Union facilities, but in Louisiana I've had better experiences in the non-union facilities. I haven't interacted with union labor at all in Mississippi.

Perpetual labor shortages due to structural demographics and the decline of conservatism due to the 55+ death rate means this will only work so long [1] [2]. [1] https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... [2] https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge-spark-forever-labor-shortage-jobs-workers-2023-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge...

jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
Then they'll move their factories overseas. Unions do not have a monopoly on workers.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Tariffs are an option as demographics tilt to the Left politically to encourage domestic workforce investment [1]. Capital and economic systems should serve humans, not make it straightforward exploitation for a few folks with big numbers in rows in a database [2]. China is rapidly decelerating economically because it got old so fast [3], and most of the world outside of India and Africa isn't far behind [4] [5]. TLDR Capitalism is running out of young productivity to squeeze for profits. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37052550 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37052550 [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/the-wealthiest-10percent-of-americans-own-a-record-89percent-of-all-us-stocks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/the-wealthiest-10percent-of-... [3] https://www.axios.com/2023/08/26/chinas-slow-moving-economic-disaster https://www.axios.com/2023/08/26/chinas-slow-moving-economic... [4] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-... [5] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Anal...
  - jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
    It's quite ironic that you say that "economic systems should serve humans" but then support "tariffs" which will significantly increase the cost of living for the aforementioned humans.
    - medvezhenok 3y ago
      Those are two different groups of humans we are talking about. Cheap labor benefits consumers - primarily older people who are using savings (workers get higher prices as well, but they also get higher wages, so they're likely to win on net). Tariffs benefit domestic industries at the expense [primarily] of the people on savings/fixed incomes.
      - jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
        How exactly are they getting higher wages if their union factory jobs are moved overseas?
        true_religion 3y ago
        The tariff is there to stop the factory from wanting to move overseas.
- johnnyanmac 3y ago
  companies have been touting outsourcing across all industries as a solution and fear for decades. What makes it different this time?

runnerup 3y ago

Walmart is the largest employer in 21 states[0]. How would they exit operations in a state and still earn income from their brick and mortar stores in that state? Sure, they could move some centralized distribution centers if they're already kind of close to a convenient border, but for the most part they need the employees they have in each state because they're fundamentally a last-mile organization. That said, NLRB/FTC/FCC/CFPB/etc regulatory rules are typically quickly reversed after presidents from opposing political parties take office. They are extremely weak on moderate timescales, compared to statutory legislation, which tends to stick around more often between shifts in power between parties. 0: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/walmart-nation-largest-employers/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/walmart-nation-largest-empl...

AnthonyMouse 3y ago
> How would they exit operations in a state and still earn income from their brick and mortar stores in that state? Sell a store to an independent operator who in turn hires workers, then sell goods to the independent operator, something like that.
- runnerup 3y ago
  In this hypothetical, communities would see the same effects as if Walmart chose not to exit. They would just shop and work at "Not-Walmart", same as the old Walmart. Some might argue prices might increase due to an additional corporate layer, but then the question I would have is why wouldn't Walmart just raise the prices themselves and take those extra available profits for themselves? I'd assume Walmart is already doing what they can to maximize net profit.
  - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
    > In this hypothetical, communities would see the same effects as if Walmart chose not to exit. They would just shop and work at "Not-Walmart", same as the old Walmart. Not-Walmart is a different company that doesn't have a union, and if they should get one, actual Walmart can start selling goods to some different Not-Walmart who doesn't. Then Not-Walmart #2 drives Not-Walmart #1 out of business by offering lower prices if the union manages to increase Not-Walmart #1's labor costs. After people have seen this happen they realize the union can't actually secure them more than the wages available in the free market without causing them to lose their jobs, so when they take a job at Not-Walmart #2 they wonder why they would want to spend time organizing another union and paying dues. > Some might argue prices might increase due to an additional corporate layer, but then the question I would have is why wouldn't Walmart just raise the prices themselves and take those extra available profits for themselves? These kinds of operations often have minimal overhead. Existing Walmart pays a salary to a store manager. Not-Walmart is owned by the person who would have been the store manager and makes "profit" equal to what Walmart would have had to pay in salary.

gopher_space 3y ago

A lot of the online chatter in the trades revolves around pay and working conditions. Right to work states pay way less (that’s the point) and have worse conditions. Politics are rarely mentioned, but everyone knows there’s better work “up north”.

jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
How is there "better" work when almost all of the new factories are opening in (or relocating to) right to work states? TSMC is opening the chip factories in Phoenix in a state that has right to work laws. Intel is opening one in Ohio, another right to work state. Samsung is opening their factory in Texas.
- runnerup 3y ago
  It would be interesting to see a breakdown of heavy industry vs. commercial vs. residential for tradespeople. Despite that I've worked extensively in manufacturing facilities for oil and gas / chemicals industries throughout the southern US, most of the electricians I know personally work in residential and commercial so I'm not sure they care where those new factories are being installed, as they won't be taking those contracts. All the ironworkers I know personally work on government contracts and commercial skyscrapers. At the same time, 100% of the union pipefitters and welders I know work in chemical plants. I follow quite a few of the subreddits for trades (r/trades, r/electricians, etc) and I can say that GP's comment rings true there. But I work primarily in TX/Louisiana/Mississippi, and the sentiment among tradespeople here is highly variable. There's a lot keeping people where their families and friends are, and there's a great amount of distrust for any information which leads to a decision they don't want to make. Generally in TX I've had better experiences in the Union facilities, but in Louisiana I've had better experiences in the non-union facilities. I haven't interacted with union labor at all in Mississippi.