You can quite easily get GenAI to rewrite some code blocks from Cobol to Java. The issue is getting it to do it at scale and reliably. I think it's possible, b

You can quite easily get GenAI to rewrite some code blocks from Cobol to Java. The issue is getting it to do it at scale and reliably. I think it's possible, but I think it's a 10 year research path. IBM will get folks to buy into this and then incrementally refine it for about 5 years. At that point they will start lagging the state of the art because they will stop investing. In about 10 years there will be various tools available from many vendors or opensource that will significantly automate it and we will call it solved. In reality there will be some niche jobs for folks to use the tools, and those folks will both work hard and get paid well.