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The Bayesian Base Rate fallacy is the key here. "Suppose that at your regular physical exam you test positive for Disease X. Although Disease X has only mild s
by foundart 3y ago
The Bayesian Base Rate fallacy is the key here.
"Suppose that at your regular physical exam you test positive for Disease X.
Although Disease X has only mild symptoms, you are concerned and ask your doctor about the accuracy of the test. It turns out that the test is 95% accurate. It would appear that the probability that you have Disease X is therefore 0.95. However, the situation is not that simple."
For the exciting conclusion to this story, please see https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statistics/Introductory_Statistics_(Lane)/05%3A_Probability/5.12%3A_Base_Rates https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statis...