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It's really easy to demonstrate with some basic math too. All of the numbers below are pulled from memory from a textbook example: Imagine you have a test with
by civilitty 3y ago
It's really easy to demonstrate with some basic math too. All of the numbers below are pulled from memory from a textbook example:
Imagine you have a test with a 1% false positive rate when screening for a disease that has a prevalence of 1 in 1,000 and the invasive operation to confirm the diagnosis has a 10% chance of serious (potentially life altering) complications like internal infection or an embolism.
If you test 10,000 people, you'll identify 10 true cases (assuming 0% false negative rate) and 100 false cases. Meanwhile testing those 110 people will result in 11 patients suffering serious complications. Once you include the complicated math of quality-adjusted life years, it's almost never worth it.
In reality the numbers are a lot worse - there is a long tail of diseases with 2-10% false positive rate tests and 1 in 10,000 incidence or worse, with 20% of patients experience QALY effecting complications from false positives. On top of that there are a lot of interventions that require invasive procedures with low rates of success.
- cyberax 3y ago> Once you include the complicated math of quality-adjusted life years, it's almost never worth it. This is an actuarial argument, that applies is you want to have the most efficient overall healthcare system. In other words, if you have to ration the access to MRIs and to followup tests. Now suppose that you are not limited by scarcity. It would absolutely make sense to use the minimally invasive procedures, but perhaps weigh the results a bit less heavily for followup tests.