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Ok folks, let me know when you throw out your computers. I mean, seriously. I don't want to hear the 100th story about how ipad changed your life unless you lit

• jiggy2011 15y ago
  I don't think people need to throw out their PCs , just maybe start using them less and then not bother replacing them after a while. Of course pending a convincing replacement for the keyboard and mouse I'm not sure how long it is until we see this in office environments. However I don't necessarily equate Post PC = Tablet , there will be other devices that fit other needs.
  • bergie 15y ago
    Exactly. I'm only using my laptop when I'm actually writing code. All the rest of the computery stuff (like HN) happens in a comfortable chair with a tablet. Eventually either somebody invents a great way to write on these devices, or I'll finish my visual programming project (see http://noflojs.org http://noflojs.org). Then (and only then) I can see my laptop usage starting to near zero.
    • jiggy2011 15y ago
      That looks interesting, most of the visual programming tools I have seen or used thus far are unusable or inefficient compared to writing code but that actually looks like something I could see myself possibly using. When I think about a program in my head I basically construct it as a huge mental diagram anyway and then translate it into code. Perhaps detailed visual design is the way to go.
      • toyg 15y ago
        Visual programming has been around since the 70s and has never really taken off because it requires lots of screen real estate. The conciseness and semantic density of text will never be beaten. You don't discuss philosophy with flowcharts; why should you code that way?
        • jiggy2011 15y ago
          Well , we have vastly increasing screen resolutions as demonstrated by the new iPad not to mention easy zooming etc. I'm not necessarily suggesting that you entire program will be converted to a diagram overnight but it might be an interesting way to declare general structure.
          • dgallagher 15y ago
            I've designed algorithms via OmniGraffle similar to this, though had to manually write the code later. It's an interesting way to do things, and it does seem to make designing complex things easier.
        • bergie 15y ago
          Yet almost every software project I've been to has started with boxes and arrows on a whiteboard. What if these boxes and arrows would be the executable application? And what if you could go to a running application, see how it is connected, and how data flows between components?
• polemic 15y ago
  +1. They're still just expensive toys. And I really, really mean that. Have I ever received an email from someone using an iPad? Nope. Not once. Has anything I've looked at online in the last week been created on an iPad? Nope. Post-PC? Try post-TV.
  • ryannielsen 15y ago
    Well, while we're throwing out anecdotal evidence, my accountant constantly uses his iPad. I've never seen him use a laptop for anything but he takes notes, sends email, and even creates and edits spreadsheets on his iPad. When you stop insisting that iPads are toys and start just using them, it's pretty incredible what you can do. Can you do everything on an iPad? No. But that doesn't mean you can't do anything. (And I bet something you've looked at online over the past week has been created on an iPad... hell, this comment has been created on an iPad.)
  • secoif 15y ago
    Perhaps not you, or many HN readers, but for many the answers to all of those are "yes". For example, my non-tech girlfriend has had an ipad for 6 months now and the only time I've ever seen her use the computer was for word processing and creating presentations. "Office" kind of stuff. The iPad isn't designed for user like us. It's designed for casual, everyday uses: like your mom.
    • toyg 15y ago
      > the only time I've ever seen her use the computer was for word processing and creating presentations. "Office" kind of stuff. i.e. for work. Laptops/PCs are for working, tablets are for playing -> little more than expensive toys, in the same way your TV was. Are tablets replacing TVs? Absofuckinglutely. Are tablets replacing work laptops? Not a chance.
      • ghshephard 15y ago
        Well, some people are using them for work: http://media.talkingpointsmemo.com/slideshow/white-house-obama-february-pictures/1-256675 http://media.talkingpointsmemo.com/slideshow/white-house-oba...
• wvenable 15y ago
  Before Television came along, people were going to movies at least once a week. Movie theaters still exist and people still go, but it's no where near the same. For post-PC, I think the important metric is how much more time are people spending on their tablets and phones vs. their PCs rather than whether or not they still own a PC.
• danilocampos 15y ago
  Hi! That's me. I used to use my laptop all the time. Browsing the web, social web jerk-offery, entertainment on planes, whatever. The iPad has pretty much replaced my laptop entirely for casual computing. I barely use it these days. Mostly it gets dusted off for looking at porn, since Flash isn't coming to mobile. And even now, that's becoming less and less an issue as more content distribution – adult and otherwise – moves to H.264. Laptop is still good for designing things, for writing code, cutting video, whatever. But I'm quite impressed by how thoroughly the iPad has replaced it for the majority of use cases. And that's how it works. It doesn't happen overnight. It creeps. I didn't immediately stop wearing watches when the cell phone became ubiquitous. But eventually it was a no-brainer.
  • zalew 15y ago
    > Laptop is still good for designing things, for writing code, cutting video, whatever. Oh, well, looks like you're stuck in that ol' pc era after all...
    • scott_s 15y ago
      I think you're being disingenuous in not recognizing the spectrum of usages among different people, and even for a single person.
      • deleted 15y ago
        [deleted]
    • jshen 15y ago
      I think your definition is wrong. Post-pc is when most people do most of their computing on a tablet or phone. That time is near.
    • freehunter 15y ago
      I still need a horse to check the fences without spooking the cattle or to control crowds in NYC. These automobile things will never catch on.
    • 15y ago
• jonknee 15y ago
  The iPad doesn't have to replace a computer to make a big difference in computer sales. I bet there are large numbers of people who already have computers but that aren't upgrading them like they normally would because the iPad serves their needs. Or not buying additional PCs (one for the kids for example). The iPad is sort of like buying a scooter when you live in an urban area. If you already have a car you might not get rid of it, but you drive it a lot less and when it comes time to be replaced, its worth is now a conversation instead of a sure thing.
  • sounds 15y ago
    Good news for Linux then, right? Linux has traditionally maintained support for older hardware - through driver support, forums to answer questions, and Linux installations that are snappy even on old hardware. Actually, I see desktop computing (including laptops) hitting a plateau already just from being good enough (factor in Windows XP's decades-long lifetime). Arguably if desktops are plateauing, embedded devices will follow a similar trajectory on a shorter time scale - all the hard-knock lessons are already known. Ultimately the year of the Linux desktop won't happen - but businesses will face fast-shrinking margins for desktops, laptops, and per-seat software licenses.
    • jonknee 15y ago
      Probably not. I just see people keeping with what they have--if you can't justify a new computer how can you justify learning a new OS? The iPad is an order of magnitude more simple than OS X or Windows, which are themselves quite a bit more user friendly than Linux. I think something like Chrome OS is a more likely business target than Linux (thin client-ish and mostly web/cloud based).
      • sounds 15y ago
        Maybe my sarcasm was too subtle. However, people do switch to Linux all the time because "Windows got too slow."
  • jiggy2011 15y ago
• ChuckMcM 15y ago
  Its an interesting question. Probably won't get a lot of takers here on Hackernews but my non-programming friends are totally in the "Great I can toss this stupid PC" camp. For them, they have never written a line of code, their work doesn't require them to change a computer but it does require that they communicate, schedule meetings, take pictures, exchange data. For them a 'phone' is not enough and a laptop is a bit too much. The market for computers has many components, one component is the engineer / programmer / scientist. Their use of computers is like their use of calculators, they always have one somewhere. But there is another component to that market which is much larger which are the people that are forced to use computers because businesses don't use the yellow pages, or have catalogs, or answer customer support calls, or deal with people on a face to face way. For that segment of people the iPad is a total win. They can look things up on the web, they can order from Amazon, they can keep in touch with their friends, and they can fill out forms etc. They will have a PC in their den or something for a while and when they haven't turned it on in 6 months they will put it out with the other junk at their next garage sale.
  • codedivine 15y ago
    You are completely ignoring the MS Office market. Try typing an essay or a report on an iPad or making a good presentation. You certainly can, but its not even remotely efficient (or a good "user experience" or "magical").
    • k-mcgrady 15y ago
      Most people have PC's at the office or in school's for that. And with the keyboard dock I found the iPad pretty good for wordprocessing (and I prefer doing presentations on it).
      • jiggy2011 15y ago
        Of course at that point it gets annoying to have to take your hand and reach over to the screen all the time , so you probably want to plug in some sort of pointing device.. Now it becomes a hassle to carry all of these docks and accessories around with you so you think "gee , I wish somebody could invent something that combined my screen, keyboard and mouse into one unit..." Another point to bear in mind is that whilst people will have computers at work and at school a great many people , especially students will want to do work from home. People do not just base their requirements on what they need 99% of the time, but rather on what they forsee their possible needs might be. Let's take cars for example, how many people do you know that own medium to large size cars with 5 seats and a trunk where for 90% of their daily driving the car only contains the driver , possibly one passenger and an empty trunk?
• scott_s 15y ago
  So the iPad can't be disruptive for computing unless people also stop using their computers completely? It can't be disruptive and, say, replace 80% of the usage for 80% of the people? I've shared this anecdote several times on HN, but my parents bought iPads instead of laptops for travel.
• rnemo 15y ago
  I agree, and additionally would like to know; how much tunnel vision must one have to believe that the next generation of a single successful tablet, in a sea of tablets that are failing, denotes that we're "post-PC" because the PPI has been increased
• hartror 15y ago
  Let me know when I can sync music and podcasts from my music library to my iPhone without a desktop then I might consider believing this post pc mumbo-jumbo.
  • 2arrs2ells 15y ago
    Do you want to know when you can sync your music library/podcasts to your iPhone without a desktop? Or do you want to know when the average user can sync her music library/podcasts to an iPhone without a desktop? Spotify (or even just iCloud) + a podcast app like Downcast meet the needs of average users today.
  • cageface 15y ago
    With iTunes match you can do this already.
    • smackfu 15y ago
      From Apple: To subscribe to iTunes Match Launch iTunes 10.5.1 or later on your computer. You cannot subscribe to iTunes Match from an iOS device.
  • tesseractive 15y ago
    Doesn't iCloud do this now? (Not an iPhone user, so I can't confirm or deny.) Personally I get my music onto my Android phone with a MOG subscription, and I sync a number of other things with Dropbox.
    • hartror 15y ago
      If you want the benefits of iTunes in the Cloud for music you haven’t purchased from iTunes, iTunes Match is the perfect solution. It’s built right into the iTunes app on your Mac or PC and the Music app on your iOS devices. And it lets you store your entire collection, including music you’ve imported from CDs or purchased somewhere other than iTunes. For just $24.99 a year. For just $24.99 a year . . . hmm no.
• raldi 15y ago
  Seriously. And on a related note, I don't want to hear another word about how the "television" is going to be a big deal unless it's from somebody who's already thrown away all of their radios.
  • tesseractive 15y ago
    In fairness, if anyone pronounced that the advent of the TV was going to herald the "post radio era," I would say they turned out to be mistaken. People don't listen to radio the same way they did before TV, but it certainly didn't go away. If the PC remains as ubiquitous as the radio did, it won't really be a "post PC era", it will just be an era with a greater diversity of computing devices.
• ugh 15y ago
  Oh hey, I just wrote a comment that is also fitting here. Quoting myself: Look at this graph: http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/index.cfm http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/index.cfm More than one third of US households have more than one PC. It’s probably a good assumption that most US households with iPads will keep at least one PC, but it’s very possible that many households are replacing their second or third PCs with iPads. After getting an iPad many households might not replace their kitchen or living room PC once it breaks. Maybe kids will get an iPad instead of a cheap laptop. It would actually be very interesting to look at that question more closely. I’m not sure whether there is already data out there. I think it’s important to emphasize that for the iPad to supplant PCs, people don’t have to ditch every PC they own. Many own more than one.
• baddox 15y ago
  False dichotomy. "Post PC era," at least as this article is using it, means "the time after PCs became commonplace in the vast majority of homes," not "the time when people started getting rid of their PCs." The rise of a new type of device does not require the extinction of an old type of device. No one would deny that automobile have replaced horses for transportation, yet plenty of people still own horses.
• guygurari 15y ago
  The day I bought my mother her iPad, she closed her Thinkpad and hasn't opened it since. That was over a year ago.
• asolove 15y ago
  Alright folks, tell me about how great this whole "computer" thing is when you throw out your pen and paper. Maybe I'll get on the internet after you all stop talking to people face-to-face. Doesn't follow. The question is how technology is affecting people's lives, and the answer, for now, is: immediacy and ease of use. For you, the iPad is a Unix machine with no file system and no shell. For a normal person, it is a magical way to share high-quality photos and talk with people across the world. That may not be very high tech, but it's currently holding together human relationships and families that otherwise wouldn't, and ultimately that's what is making an impact.
  • twelvechairs 15y ago
    Yeah, but we don't say that we are in the 'post pen-and-paper era'... ... because pens and paper are still around, and still useful for lots of things, even though some of the things they were used for in the past are now done on the computer. Just like PCs are still around, and still useful for lots of things, even though some of the things they were used for in the past are now done on a tablet.
    • yusefnapora 15y ago
      This is true, but I wouldn't bat an eye at the phrase "post-mainframe era," though of course there are still plenty of mainframes doing useful work.
      • pyre 15y ago
        But I would say in the 'post mainframe era,' we've gone from a time when most computers were mainframes to a time when most computers are not. Thus talking about the 'post pc era,' implies (in my opinion) that the vast majority of people will only have a table.
        • inpHilltr8r 15y ago
          Surely that would be when the vast majority of computers are not PCs, not that the vast majority of people only have a tablet. Given the ubiquity of devices in the average home that have microprocessors, that do computing jobs that PCs can do, that aren't actually PCs, we've been there for a while. Now if he'd said that we were in the tablet era, that's another thing.
• nantes 15y ago
  I purchased an iPad 2 for my wife rather than replacing her failing Dell laptop. She couldn't be more happy.
• protomyth 15y ago
  In the past, I always had a Power Mac / Mac Pro. It was a needed item for some of the stuff I would do. In the last couple of years, I have switched to a 17" Macbook Pro. I expect in a couple of years, I will be down to a MacBook Air with a nice external monitor at home. The form factor of my needs is getting smaller. My Dad is now retired. He was a big PC guy and had various PC portables not a few of which were tablet convertibles. Today, he has an iPad and doesn't use anything else. He can e-mail, look at pictures, browse the web, and keep track of his bank accounts. It also makes for some decent entertainment for his grandson (my nephew). We both started at much different places, but the Post-PC era has arrived for him, and I am one of those people who needs the trucks just as some still need bigger iron.
• ImprovedSilence 15y ago
  My girlfriends computer broke a few months back. She bought a tablet, and has no plans to get a laptop anytime soon. Not saying this is happening in droves. But it's slowly coming to pass.
• snowwrestler 15y ago
  What people are replacing is their upgrade cycle: they buy an iPad instead of a new PC, and just hang on to the older PC for a while longer. Many of my non-techy friends are doing this.