3 ms·

This happens, yes, But oftentimes preppers start off from rational or at least semi-rational bases, but then entrench themselves in the psychology you describe

by caeril 3y ago

This happens, yes, But oftentimes preppers start off from rational or at least semi-rational bases, but then entrench themselves in the psychology you describe due to the sunk-cost fallacy. For example: let's say you bought into Matt Simmons' peak oil hypothesis in 2008. The data is there. Hubbert's peak is a real phenomenon and mathematically, it will eventually happen. So you moved off-grid, spun up a sustainable, regenerative ranching effort, and started rolling over long-dated NYMEX crude contracts, losing your savings slowly for a decade and a half, while tight oil technology expired your options worthless, every single month. Some people might say ok, I was wrong. Shit. Time to get back to the real world. But many more of them will convince themselves no, it's just the timing, I was just a little early. See the Bakken and Eagle Ford production is already peaking, and the Permian Basin will peak in just a couple more years. THEN I'll be right. I have to be right. July 2025 will be my swan song. I'm going to go watch The Big Short again. Humans are gonna human. And I suspect you're going to see a LOT more of the left-leaning, tech-bro type of this prepper emerging due to climate change concerns than you will of the traditional Bible-beating Soviet-EMP style of prepper in the coming decade.

tonyedgecombe 3y ago
It will be quite amusing if peak oil comes about because demand has fallen rather than supply.
- wizofaus 3y ago
  That seems to be almost certain now. I'll admit I'd followed the debate fairly closely for a while and was convinced by the arguments that an oil supply crunch was going to have a fairly dramatic effect on civilisation as we knew it. It may still happen, but it seems a fairly minor risk compared to many of the others. But I never really considered prepping - if some sort of dramatic collapse does occur I'd rather just ride it out as best as I can with family and friends and local communities going through the same thing. I don't expect it to be at all pretty but nor do I think it'll be all bad.
toofy 3y ago
> And I suspect you're going to see a LOT more of the left-leaning, tech-bro type of this prepper emerging due to climate change concerns… while i’m sure we’ll see an uptick, i don’t think we’ll see anything like we did with the previous batch of paranoid types. the modern left is much more about “we need to rely on and help each other” rather than the “im gonna become a survivalist and die alone in the woods.” and honestly, anyone who thinks going off alone is somehow the intelligent move is fooling themselves and obviously hasn’t thought it through. we know this. we have thousands of years of evidence of this. when we come together we thrive. when we go off in the woods to show how “strong-boot-straps” we are, we die of an infected toe nail or something equally as stupid. that’s why every survivalist disaster “expert” recommends to prepare for disaster with your neighbors in your town to help each other and distribute the load. it’s not rocket surgery. again, i’m sure we’ll see a slight uptick in every type, but nothing like we did in the past, i think we learned too much from watching their mistakes. we’ve seen too many shows and videos of people with even strong survival skills be absolutely miserable off on in isolation.

by caeril 3y ago

tonyedgecombe 3y ago

It will be quite amusing if peak oil comes about because demand has fallen rather than supply.

wizofaus 3y ago
That seems to be almost certain now. I'll admit I'd followed the debate fairly closely for a while and was convinced by the arguments that an oil supply crunch was going to have a fairly dramatic effect on civilisation as we knew it. It may still happen, but it seems a fairly minor risk compared to many of the others. But I never really considered prepping - if some sort of dramatic collapse does occur I'd rather just ride it out as best as I can with family and friends and local communities going through the same thing. I don't expect it to be at all pretty but nor do I think it'll be all bad.

toofy 3y ago

> And I suspect you're going to see a LOT more of the left-leaning, tech-bro type of this prepper emerging due to climate change concerns… while i’m sure we’ll see an uptick, i don’t think we’ll see anything like we did with the previous batch of paranoid types. the modern left is much more about “we need to rely on and help each other” rather than the “im gonna become a survivalist and die alone in the woods.” and honestly, anyone who thinks going off alone is somehow the intelligent move is fooling themselves and obviously hasn’t thought it through. we know this. we have thousands of years of evidence of this. when we come together we thrive. when we go off in the woods to show how “strong-boot-straps” we are, we die of an infected toe nail or something equally as stupid. that’s why every survivalist disaster “expert” recommends to prepare for disaster with your neighbors in your town to help each other and distribute the load. it’s not rocket surgery. again, i’m sure we’ll see a slight uptick in every type, but nothing like we did in the past, i think we learned too much from watching their mistakes. we’ve seen too many shows and videos of people with even strong survival skills be absolutely miserable off on in isolation.