3 ms·
Yes. It's not a terribly interesting article but I would describe it from an external perspective as, "People bid based on a sort of mean value: they don't kno
by crdrost 3y ago
Yes. It's not a terribly interesting article but I would describe it from an external perspective as,
"People bid based on a sort of mean value: they don't know how much this thing is worth to them, so they make an uncertain guess, that guess has a mean.
"But, that guess also has a standard deviation. And if you have 100 identical people doing a one-time closed bid on the thing, they all have identical mean valuations but the bid that will win will probably be 2-3 standard deviations over the mean. In these situations, the more wrong you are, the more likely you are to win, and the less you will like what you win. This is the winner's curse.
"You can avoid this by being cognizant of your status as one of the pool of 'identical people', how many people are similar to you, and tempering your bids downward in relation to that. A jar full of money has a similar value to everyone who is in the audience -- this creates the dangerous condition! A unique statement piece from an otherwise unremarkable artist, is going to attract some interested parties and some revulsion: so if you dig it, you are probably in the minority and don't need to worry so much about the winner's curse."