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When the Japanese government decided prioritized domestic fabrication equipment, Canon and Nikon took over the lithography market with equipment that outclassed

When the Japanese government decided prioritized domestic fabrication equipment, Canon and Nikon took over the lithography market with equipment that outclassed everything else. I'm doubtful that sanctions can keep their technology generations behind over the long term. I don't know if it will come from research or espionage, but the CCP will throw enough resources at the problem to catch up with ASML.

EA-3167 3y ago
That's the point. Instead of effortlessly being able to copy tech that's handed to them, they're going to have to spend time, money and talent to just catch up. While that's happening it isn't as though ASML and others will be standing still, and they won't have to make a national espionage project out of their attempts. Sanctions are about adding cost and friction, not some magical ideal of totally boxing countries off.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  Exactly this. Increase cost of acquisition 10-1000x current market rates. The added benefit is that they may produce a competitor to ASML which actually drives down costs and increases innovation. Win win win!
- dwallin 3y ago
  In addition, it gives the United States and EU the chance to catch up and build up their domestic semiconductor capabilities without being undercut by chips from China. Countries have too slowly realized the importance of this and are playing catchup after years of underinvestment.
mathverse 3y ago
It's not sanctions alone. It's the chinese culture of guanxi and corruption that will. Individualism and exceptionalism is not rewarded.
- kridsdale3 3y ago
  On this topic, I am about halfway through a great book written in the 1930s that tries to explain to Westerners the Chinese way of life/thought/relationships/morals that seem well, foreign. It was actually written to explain Western culture to Chinese readers, but it's just as good the other way. "From the Soil: The Foundations of Chinese Society" https://www.amazon.com/Soil-Foundations-Chinese-Society/dp/0520077962 https://www.amazon.com/Soil-Foundations-Chinese-Society/dp/0...
  - georgeplusplus 3y ago
    Sounds interesting. What are your thoughts and impressions so far?
  - SkyMarshal 3y ago
    I wonder how much pre-CCP Chinese culture has been distorted since the CCP took over and implemented the Cultural Revolution and its more might-makes-right philosophy, and how much of that book still applies? Some does I’m sure, but is all of it still accurate?
    - woooooo 3y ago
      Again, it cuts both ways. How much will westerners willingly misunderstand because it intersects with the ideological conflict? Why aren't we asking questions about western colonialism's impact on the culture? Too awkward? It's a culture of 1.5 billion people presently, over a few thousand years. Probably "fewer generations separated from subsistence farming" is more influential than anything ideological.
      - slimebot80 3y ago
        To claim it's a single culture of 1.5 billion is really interesting. China is many countries and cultures in one, but ruled by a certain class. Any outward disrespect China may feel could be seen as a handy distraction from problems of keeping 1.5 billion people the "same".

EA-3167 3y ago

That's the point. Instead of effortlessly being able to copy tech that's handed to them, they're going to have to spend time, money and talent to just catch up. While that's happening it isn't as though ASML and others will be standing still, and they won't have to make a national espionage project out of their attempts. Sanctions are about adding cost and friction, not some magical ideal of totally boxing countries off.

mensetmanusman 3y ago
Exactly this. Increase cost of acquisition 10-1000x current market rates. The added benefit is that they may produce a competitor to ASML which actually drives down costs and increases innovation. Win win win!
dwallin 3y ago
In addition, it gives the United States and EU the chance to catch up and build up their domestic semiconductor capabilities without being undercut by chips from China. Countries have too slowly realized the importance of this and are playing catchup after years of underinvestment.

mathverse 3y ago

It's not sanctions alone. It's the chinese culture of guanxi and corruption that will. Individualism and exceptionalism is not rewarded.

kridsdale3 3y ago
On this topic, I am about halfway through a great book written in the 1930s that tries to explain to Westerners the Chinese way of life/thought/relationships/morals that seem well, foreign. It was actually written to explain Western culture to Chinese readers, but it's just as good the other way. "From the Soil: The Foundations of Chinese Society" https://www.amazon.com/Soil-Foundations-Chinese-Society/dp/0520077962 https://www.amazon.com/Soil-Foundations-Chinese-Society/dp/0...
- georgeplusplus 3y ago
  Sounds interesting. What are your thoughts and impressions so far?
- SkyMarshal 3y ago
  I wonder how much pre-CCP Chinese culture has been distorted since the CCP took over and implemented the Cultural Revolution and its more might-makes-right philosophy, and how much of that book still applies? Some does I’m sure, but is all of it still accurate?
  - woooooo 3y ago
    Again, it cuts both ways. How much will westerners willingly misunderstand because it intersects with the ideological conflict? Why aren't we asking questions about western colonialism's impact on the culture? Too awkward? It's a culture of 1.5 billion people presently, over a few thousand years. Probably "fewer generations separated from subsistence farming" is more influential than anything ideological.
    - slimebot80 3y ago
      To claim it's a single culture of 1.5 billion is really interesting. China is many countries and cultures in one, but ruled by a certain class. Any outward disrespect China may feel could be seen as a handy distraction from problems of keeping 1.5 billion people the "same".