> when people declare, without evidence The evidence for this, albeit empirical, is the history of AI development itself. AI doesn't show continuous developme

> when people declare, without evidence The evidence for this, albeit empirical, is the history of AI development itself. AI doesn't show continuous development over a long period of time. It always developed in steps. A new architecture or method is discovered and able to solve some previously hard or unsolveable problems. Then this solution slowly develops in capability, mostly based on better and cheaper hardware, while it's quality plateaus. It may be that LLMs will not follow that pattern. I don't think so, for reasons outlined above. But until it can be shown that they don't, that this really is the long-sought-after AI architecture that just gets better and better over time, I don't think that a healthy dose of pessimism is unwarranted based on history.