3 ms·
"we are already at the tail end of the current wave of AI." Is that really true? Generative AI spending this year just so far is 4x greater than last year, and
by atleastoptimal 3y ago
"we are already at the tail end of the current wave of AI."
Is that really true? Generative AI spending this year just so far is 4x greater than last year, and the results of that spending haven't been released yet. How can they conclude this?
Most "predictions" about the future I've seen assume that ChatGPT will stay the same and not improve for the next 10 years, or only marginally. Why they make this assumption, I don't know, it seems to go against every past trend we've seen with machine learning scaling. There are even people who say LLMs have reached their limit because we've exhausted all the text data that exists, assuming that the only way for LLMs to improve is to blindly feed it more static data and that no other sources of improvements exist.
- sharts 3y agoI think they mean tail end of LLM innovation? As in, all the discovery has been done and so all that is left is just computing power and tweaks rather than breakthroughs. I believe the OpenAI folks have already said something to that effect a while ago as well. For end users, the results of tweaks/computational power will seem like "breakthrough" to them but it's fundamentally not.
- nottorp 3y ago> Generative AI spending this year just so far is 4x greater than last year I'm sure they spent a lot of money looking for gold in the long rushes long before the gold was all gone too.
- albertzeyer 3y agoAlso, if we add videos, images, audio, whatever other data we have, there is still quite some orders of magnitude more data available.