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I don't dispute those at all; I think we're headed for disaster. But Earth's ecosystems and biospheres are huge and complex. We've probably kicked off a cascade
by titzer 3y ago
I don't dispute those at all; I think we're headed for disaster. But Earth's ecosystems and biospheres are huge and complex. We've probably kicked off a cascade that inevitably leads to a major collapse already, but it be a long process, like watching a log decay. There will be spasms as this or that or the other species has a big spike and looks like it is "rebounding"--like swarms of locusts, e.g.--but really it's the system unraveling. The biosphere's natural way of adaptation is to dip into a reservoir of biodiversity via (sometimes local) extinction. It'll keep trying to settle into new configurations of stability, but they won't work, and they'll be temporary plateaus on our slide down this long slope.
It could take many decades or even centuries for most of the damage to be done. We're trying our hardest to speed it up, but yeah, there's a big reservoir to burn through and most of the time it will look like things are standing still.
Saying that everything is going to unravel in 10 years and collapse is going to turn out to not be true, even if the underlying dynamic is inexorably pointing in a bad direction and headed that way.