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I can't claim to understand Muni's problems, but it occurs to me that an train is a much simpler problem (technically speaking) to solve than a self-driving bus

I can't claim to understand Muni's problems, but it occurs to me that an train is a much simpler problem (technically speaking) to solve than a self-driving bus. The former doesn't have to flow in and out of unstructured traffic, has only one degree of freedom, has well-deployed reference systems, etc. Maybe one day we'll have fully automated buses without any operators at all, but for the time being my understanding is that even self-driving cars still need a tender. The kind of bus volume (and corresponding idle drivers) you'd need to make up for a train's worth of commuters probably takes a heavy cut into any operator labor savings.

xnx 3y ago
Waymo does have a support team, but it is not 1:1 with its vehicles. Trains a transportation system from a different era when there were peak commute times. They run at a fraction of their capacity now.
- woodruffw 3y ago
  The trains seem busy enough here in NYC (too busy: they need to run more of them). I'm not aware of a city on Earth that's been able to obtain the kind of simultaneous density and livability that places like NYC have without mass transit. Comparatively dense cities without mass transit (like Manila) are choked in traffic; changing that traffic to electric traffic will make the air cleaner (good!) but will not address the latter problem.
  - xnx 3y ago
    NYC transit is great. Citibike and the ferry are my favorite parts. Crazy that you can't get a train from LaGuardia to Manhattan. $3.5 billion/mile is a lot to pay for new track! It's yet to be seen, but I'm hopeful that widespread use self driving vehicles of calm, quite, and safe transportation that flows like water.
    - woodruffw 3y ago
      > $3.5 billion/mile is a lot to pay for new track! That's mostly paying for the tunnels, not the track. It shouldn't cost nearly that much, but it's not surprising that it isn't cheap either: the tunnels are being constructed under some of the densest and most expensive real estate in the world, and the resulting stations are significantly larger than others in the system. And note: if you think that's expensive, you won't believe what it costs to repair highways in NYC[1]. [1]: https://ny1.com/nyc/brooklyn/news/2020/02/25/city-council-floats-two-repair-plans-for-the-bqe https://ny1.com/nyc/brooklyn/news/2020/02/25/city-council-fl...
farzinadil 3y ago
Unfortunately, MUNI is not grade separated and the Muni trains do have to interface with traffic. Still easier than cars but similar challenges. And unlike the private industry in SF, the public agencies seem allergic to technology.

xnx 3y ago

Waymo does have a support team, but it is not 1:1 with its vehicles. Trains a transportation system from a different era when there were peak commute times. They run at a fraction of their capacity now.

woodruffw 3y ago
The trains seem busy enough here in NYC (too busy: they need to run more of them). I'm not aware of a city on Earth that's been able to obtain the kind of simultaneous density and livability that places like NYC have without mass transit. Comparatively dense cities without mass transit (like Manila) are choked in traffic; changing that traffic to electric traffic will make the air cleaner (good!) but will not address the latter problem.
- xnx 3y ago
  NYC transit is great. Citibike and the ferry are my favorite parts. Crazy that you can't get a train from LaGuardia to Manhattan. $3.5 billion/mile is a lot to pay for new track! It's yet to be seen, but I'm hopeful that widespread use self driving vehicles of calm, quite, and safe transportation that flows like water.
  - woodruffw 3y ago
    > $3.5 billion/mile is a lot to pay for new track! That's mostly paying for the tunnels, not the track. It shouldn't cost nearly that much, but it's not surprising that it isn't cheap either: the tunnels are being constructed under some of the densest and most expensive real estate in the world, and the resulting stations are significantly larger than others in the system. And note: if you think that's expensive, you won't believe what it costs to repair highways in NYC[1]. [1]: https://ny1.com/nyc/brooklyn/news/2020/02/25/city-council-floats-two-repair-plans-for-the-bqe https://ny1.com/nyc/brooklyn/news/2020/02/25/city-council-fl...

farzinadil 3y ago

Unfortunately, MUNI is not grade separated and the Muni trains do have to interface with traffic. Still easier than cars but similar challenges. And unlike the private industry in SF, the public agencies seem allergic to technology.