6 ms·

Mortgage Rates Hit 7.23%, Highest Since 2001

24 points by mfiguiere 3y ago

Justsignedup 3y ago
Whenever people say "highest since xxxx" i sometimes chuckle. If it hits 10% maybe highest since 1881? 100%? Highest since Kneecapsimus would walk around breaking kneecaps for those who didn't pay back in the Roman days?
- edmundsauto 3y ago
  I think it's actually a great stat - people who are 40 or under, this is the highest rate it's been the entire time they have been adults. There are 2+ generations seeing the highest rates in their adult life - that's interesting context. (US 30 year mortgage rates did hit 17% in 1981 - so we don't have to go quite as far back as ancient Rome :) )
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
egberts1 3y ago
[flagged]
- Our_Benefactors 3y ago
  This is a bad thing, so obviously the previous admins fault. American politicians take credit for successes during their tenure and blame all failures on their predecessor. It’s an art form in American politics.
  - smileysteve 3y ago
    The federal reserve is independent, but the current chair was nominated by the former guy - and in 2019 the former guy definitely pressured the federal reserve to not raise rates as it saw a need to. Then in 2020 the federal reserve loaded up its biggest balance sheet in history and ignored other government stimulus. "This" is also arguably not a "bad thing" as rates are still below the mean (during which the US saw extensive growth). Neither us political party is actively considering increasing immigration, which would reduce the "supply side" labor of the equation as we see perhaps the largest demographic shift in workers:citizens as baby boomers retire (which is exactly what Japan saw and China is starting to see) The lowest sustained unemployment rate may not have been the best kpi to target by the last 7 administrations.
    - landemva 3y ago
      > the current chair was nominated by [Trump] The private federal reserve grooms and vets a choice which the Pres. can rubber-stamp. It gives the interest-rate-setting cartel more legitimacy in mind of typical voter/taxpayer.
- smileysteve 3y ago
  No, this is federal reserve policy. The federal reserve began raising rates in 2019 as it saw inflation incoming; a pandemic threw it for a loop, and when November 2021 came it decided to get back on track (as opposed to earlier to potentially less extremes). It's also below the norm through 50 years of administrations prior to 2001 (lowered by a recession), still about half the norm from the 80s.
  - landemva 3y ago
    > federal reserve began raising rates in 2019 as it saw inflation incoming; a pandemic threw it for a loop, and when November 2021 came it decided to get back on track ... Which federal reserve was that? IIRC, federal reserve started raising interest rates in February 2017 after Trump was sworn in. Then panic rate drops starting March 2020. Then raised rates around March 2022, just after Zelensky speech about acquiring nuclear weapons, and Harris comment supporting Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia then going in to Donbas.
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
      > Then raised rates around March 2022, just after Zelensky speech about acquiring nuclear weapons, This never happened, Zelensky did not make a speech about acquiring nuclear weapons he made a speech about how they willing gave up nuclear weapons and were meant to be given protection in exchange.
      - landemva 3y ago
        What did it mean when Zelensky said in February 2022 that items such as disarmament in 1994 agreement are in doubt? The 1994 agreement was meant to remove Soviet nukes from Ukraine and to ensure buffer space. Since then NATO has pushed further east. https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-full-speech-at-munich-security-conference/ https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-full-speech-at-munich-... "... Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt." Ukraine still refuses to apologize to Poland for massacres in WW 2. https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/poland-votes-that-wwii-massacre-by-ukraine-was-genocide/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/poland-vot...
- somewhat_drunk 3y ago
  Bidenomics worked great, delivering record low unemployment as inflation fell faster than any other country in the G7. The US economy was full steam ahead for 3/4 of Biden's term, and is only now beginning to slow after the steepest FED rate hike in history. But there's a reason "don't fight the FED" is a well-known adage among traders: it has the most powerful levers, so it always wins in the long run. They wanted to kill inflation, and the only way to do that was to slow the economy. P.S. Your awkward attempt at partisan, clever humor is pretty embarrassing.
  - landemva 3y ago
    The fastest way to slow inflation would be to end the war making. It was not a coincidence that federal reserve raised rates just after the start of eastern European hostilities.
    - quickthrowman 3y ago
      It was a complete coincidence, they had been telegraphing rate hikes for months, long before Russia invaded Ukraine. The rate hikes came sooner than expected, part of that was from food and energy prices going up as a result of the war, but oil and grain prices have fallen from their peak in the past 18 months since the start of the war. Here’s an article from November 2021 where they report that the Federal Reserve is planning to start hiking the prime rate: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-november-meeting.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases... Article about how Vice Chair Richard Clarida was telegraphing upcoming rate hikes in August 2021: https://www.axios.com/2021/08/05/fed-vice-chair-clarida-rate-hikes-economic-progress https://www.axios.com/2021/08/05/fed-vice-chair-clarida-rate... Outside of situations like March 2020 and the GFC, The Fed generally telegraphs their moves far ahead of time to give market participants time to reposition.
    - somewhat_drunk 3y ago
      Talk about rectally-sourced information... sheesh. The Ukraine War has almost nothing to do with US inflation. Have you even bothered to look at a chart of inflation? By your logic, inflation would have shot up from nothing as soon as the war started. But of course, inflation was already humming right along when Russia invaded in February 2022. Maybe you don't know how to google things? I'll help, here's a link. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi As you can see, the Ukraine War caused inflation to begin rising two years before Russia even invaded! Impressive investigative work, Watson!
nine_zeros 3y ago
The housing market appears crushed. Sales are so low. It may take only a minor jump in unemployment for housing prices to slide.
- rcme 3y ago
  You should do a cost comparison between buying a house between 2008-2020 and now. Selling your house would lead to a massive increase in living expenses. It would need to be truly desperate.
  - landemva 3y ago
    I continue to be surprised by the limited listings. But people don't want to sell, and why would they sell out of their 3% mortgage now?
    - adamredwoods 3y ago
      Correct, the inventory is terrible. Yet, I am "desperate", and we're looking at houses and actively in talks with mortgage officers. I also feel housing prices won't come down in the areas I'm looking at. I feel they will only go up, because employment in this area (Pacific NW) is fairly solid (T-mobile just dropped some news today). So regardless of interest rates, If I can survive 2 years with a high mortgage, in hopes the price value of the house will be the lowest it will ever get.
      - brianwawok 3y ago
        Or live outside the big cities and enjoy reasonable prices :)
        adamredwoods 3y ago
        But I don't want to live TOO far out, should anything happen to my current job. I don't feel that the remote-work revolution has taken hold.
      - 3y ago
archo 3y ago
https://archive.is/gJOWu https://archive.is/gJOWu

24 points by mfiguiere 3y ago

Whenever people say "highest since xxxx" i sometimes chuckle. If it hits 10% maybe highest since 1881? 100%? Highest since Kneecapsimus would walk around breaking kneecaps for those who didn't pay back in the Roman days?

edmundsauto 3y ago
I think it's actually a great stat - people who are 40 or under, this is the highest rate it's been the entire time they have been adults. There are 2+ generations seeing the highest rates in their adult life - that's interesting context. (US 30 year mortgage rates did hit 17% in 1981 - so we don't have to go quite as far back as ancient Rome :) )
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

egberts1 3y ago

[flagged]

Our_Benefactors 3y ago
This is a bad thing, so obviously the previous admins fault. American politicians take credit for successes during their tenure and blame all failures on their predecessor. It’s an art form in American politics.
- smileysteve 3y ago
  The federal reserve is independent, but the current chair was nominated by the former guy - and in 2019 the former guy definitely pressured the federal reserve to not raise rates as it saw a need to. Then in 2020 the federal reserve loaded up its biggest balance sheet in history and ignored other government stimulus. "This" is also arguably not a "bad thing" as rates are still below the mean (during which the US saw extensive growth). Neither us political party is actively considering increasing immigration, which would reduce the "supply side" labor of the equation as we see perhaps the largest demographic shift in workers:citizens as baby boomers retire (which is exactly what Japan saw and China is starting to see) The lowest sustained unemployment rate may not have been the best kpi to target by the last 7 administrations.
  - landemva 3y ago
    > the current chair was nominated by [Trump] The private federal reserve grooms and vets a choice which the Pres. can rubber-stamp. It gives the interest-rate-setting cartel more legitimacy in mind of typical voter/taxpayer.
smileysteve 3y ago
No, this is federal reserve policy. The federal reserve began raising rates in 2019 as it saw inflation incoming; a pandemic threw it for a loop, and when November 2021 came it decided to get back on track (as opposed to earlier to potentially less extremes). It's also below the norm through 50 years of administrations prior to 2001 (lowered by a recession), still about half the norm from the 80s.
- landemva 3y ago
  > federal reserve began raising rates in 2019 as it saw inflation incoming; a pandemic threw it for a loop, and when November 2021 came it decided to get back on track ... Which federal reserve was that? IIRC, federal reserve started raising interest rates in February 2017 after Trump was sworn in. Then panic rate drops starting March 2020. Then raised rates around March 2022, just after Zelensky speech about acquiring nuclear weapons, and Harris comment supporting Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia then going in to Donbas.
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > Then raised rates around March 2022, just after Zelensky speech about acquiring nuclear weapons, This never happened, Zelensky did not make a speech about acquiring nuclear weapons he made a speech about how they willing gave up nuclear weapons and were meant to be given protection in exchange.
    - landemva 3y ago
      What did it mean when Zelensky said in February 2022 that items such as disarmament in 1994 agreement are in doubt? The 1994 agreement was meant to remove Soviet nukes from Ukraine and to ensure buffer space. Since then NATO has pushed further east. https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-full-speech-at-munich-security-conference/ https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-full-speech-at-munich-... "... Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt." Ukraine still refuses to apologize to Poland for massacres in WW 2. https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/poland-votes-that-wwii-massacre-by-ukraine-was-genocide/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/poland-vot...
somewhat_drunk 3y ago
Bidenomics worked great, delivering record low unemployment as inflation fell faster than any other country in the G7. The US economy was full steam ahead for 3/4 of Biden's term, and is only now beginning to slow after the steepest FED rate hike in history. But there's a reason "don't fight the FED" is a well-known adage among traders: it has the most powerful levers, so it always wins in the long run. They wanted to kill inflation, and the only way to do that was to slow the economy. P.S. Your awkward attempt at partisan, clever humor is pretty embarrassing.
- landemva 3y ago
  The fastest way to slow inflation would be to end the war making. It was not a coincidence that federal reserve raised rates just after the start of eastern European hostilities.
  - quickthrowman 3y ago
    It was a complete coincidence, they had been telegraphing rate hikes for months, long before Russia invaded Ukraine. The rate hikes came sooner than expected, part of that was from food and energy prices going up as a result of the war, but oil and grain prices have fallen from their peak in the past 18 months since the start of the war. Here’s an article from November 2021 where they report that the Federal Reserve is planning to start hiking the prime rate: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-november-meeting.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases... Article about how Vice Chair Richard Clarida was telegraphing upcoming rate hikes in August 2021: https://www.axios.com/2021/08/05/fed-vice-chair-clarida-rate-hikes-economic-progress https://www.axios.com/2021/08/05/fed-vice-chair-clarida-rate... Outside of situations like March 2020 and the GFC, The Fed generally telegraphs their moves far ahead of time to give market participants time to reposition.
  - somewhat_drunk 3y ago
    Talk about rectally-sourced information... sheesh. The Ukraine War has almost nothing to do with US inflation. Have you even bothered to look at a chart of inflation? By your logic, inflation would have shot up from nothing as soon as the war started. But of course, inflation was already humming right along when Russia invaded in February 2022. Maybe you don't know how to google things? I'll help, here's a link. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi As you can see, the Ukraine War caused inflation to begin rising two years before Russia even invaded! Impressive investigative work, Watson!

nine_zeros 3y ago

The housing market appears crushed. Sales are so low. It may take only a minor jump in unemployment for housing prices to slide.

rcme 3y ago
You should do a cost comparison between buying a house between 2008-2020 and now. Selling your house would lead to a massive increase in living expenses. It would need to be truly desperate.
- landemva 3y ago
  I continue to be surprised by the limited listings. But people don't want to sell, and why would they sell out of their 3% mortgage now?
  - adamredwoods 3y ago
    Correct, the inventory is terrible. Yet, I am "desperate", and we're looking at houses and actively in talks with mortgage officers. I also feel housing prices won't come down in the areas I'm looking at. I feel they will only go up, because employment in this area (Pacific NW) is fairly solid (T-mobile just dropped some news today). So regardless of interest rates, If I can survive 2 years with a high mortgage, in hopes the price value of the house will be the lowest it will ever get.
    - brianwawok 3y ago
      Or live outside the big cities and enjoy reasonable prices :)
      - adamredwoods 3y ago
        But I don't want to live TOO far out, should anything happen to my current job. I don't feel that the remote-work revolution has taken hold.
    - 3y ago

archo 3y ago

https://archive.is/gJOWu https://archive.is/gJOWu