4 ms·

Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? How could you possibly tease out the drop in tobacco use from one change to packaging? This reminds me of the analysi

by refurb 3y ago

Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? How could you possibly tease out the drop in tobacco use from one change to packaging? This reminds me of the analysis I’ve seen for marketing campaigns.

kllvql 3y ago
One way people try to tease out those differences is through methods like "Difference in Differences"[1] which try to estimate causal relationships from observational data. These methods are used in marketing analysis as well. In my experience, it is easy to break one of the many assumptions inherent in methods like Diff-in-diff. Because of this I have little trust in these techniques in general. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Difference_in_differences https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Difference_in_differences
rmm 3y ago
This. Smoking was going downhill anyway
- pdpi 3y ago
  Until vapes came along, anyway. I really don't understand what happened there.
  - refurb 3y ago
    Vapes isn’t smoking. The UK promotes vaping as a way to stop smoking.
throwawaylinux 3y ago
> Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? How could you possibly tease out the drop in tobacco use from one change to packaging? Anything in the real world has many many factors affecting its consumption. What would it matter if it was trending down specifically? Or are you asking what models and statistical tools they use to make analyses like this when there are a complex set of factors at play?
- refurb 3y ago
  Id love to see the confidence intervals on that 0.55% impact (p=0.5, -0.3, 1.3).
FirmwareBurner 3y ago
>Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? Depends where you live. Visiting the US I don't remember ever seeing anyone smoking, but in Europe it's huge, especially in centra/southern/eastern Europe, including the Balkans where coffee and cigarettes are the staple of any nutritious breakfast. I see plenty of teenagers smoking, plus on outdoor terraces and outside of offices, clubs, bars, even the balconies in my building, it's full of smokers. Europe is a few decades behind the US on giving up smoking. Also, now the hipster thing is to switch to these e-cigarettes.
- em-bee 3y ago
  it was somewhat of a surprise for me, visiting europe after many years, how many people still smoke there compared to what i saw in asia and africa.
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    I think it's still has to do with social circle cliques and coolness factor from a young age and wanting to fit in. I think a lot of people, non smokers mostly, don't see all the bonding, networking, flirting, and general socializing that happens when smokers get together for a fag, which probably explains why this unhealthy habit is still very popular today in many countries. I know many people who met their SOs at smoking breaks or found out about new yet unpublished job opportunities from the chit-chat that happens at smoking breaks. Could be because it's seen as a socially acceptable addiction to have during daytime, granting you more breaks at work. If someone goes out every 45 minutes to play games on his phone he'll be seen as a lazy slacker, but if he were to go out for a smoke, it would be more likely to be allright, especially if his boss was also a smoker. There's something about the smoking break gatherings, from a social aspect, like asking for a cigarette, asking for a light, cupping the flame against the wind for someone, which act like natural ice breakers, conversation starters and could help create instant bonds or chit-chat opportunities, that can't be replicated at other kind of gathering during the day such as water-cooler or standings in line.
    - tetris11 3y ago
WeylandYutani 3y ago
Tobacco companies are shifting to emerging markets. India, Indonesia.
newaccount74 3y ago
Tobacco use is going down, but it's not happening on its own. It's going down because of many measures that have been implemented: - restriction of billboard advertising - restriction of tobacco ads in film and tv - warnings on packaging - photos on packaging - banning smoking in public buildings - banning smoking in restaurants - banning smoking in public transportation - banning smoking near entrances - age restrictions on buying cigarettes - banning of automatic vending machines etc. Each of those have a small effect, but in total the effect is large. It's hard to measure the effectiveness of individual measures, but in aggregate it's clear that these measures significantly reduce smoking. Especially if you compare countries where these measures have not been implemented yet with countries where they were implemented sooner.
- yreg 3y ago
  It could be happening on it's own as well though. We have all of these restrictions here in Europe and yet double the people smoke than in US.
  - newaccount74 3y ago
    I think it just takes time. I live in Austria, and some of these measures were only introduced 5 years ago, some are still not implemented. People don't give up smoking overnight, the 20 year lead the US has over these measures is not something we can expect to catch up... Smoking is going down, slowly, and I think it's because of all these measures.
- jacknews 3y ago
  In my anecdotal experience, it's simply no longer cool to smoke, at all, in fact very much the opposite. I smoked for about 10 years between the mid 80s and 90s. When I started, most of the 'cool', 'sophisticated' etc people seemed to smoke. When I stopped, it was mostly a health choice, but partly because it seemed no longer 'cool', everyone I knew had given up or was trying to. I can't even fathom why anyone would start smoking now, it seems like an affliction of the poor and/or the old rather than anything sophisticated. All of this is mostly a change in fashion, people having a deeper awareness of the health risks, becoming aware of tobacco industry manipulation, etc. No doubt government messaging aided and supported that change, but it is not the only or even the main cause imho.

by refurb 3y ago

Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? How could you possibly tease out the drop in tobacco use from one change to packaging? This reminds me of the analysis I’ve seen for marketing campaigns.

kllvql 3y ago

One way people try to tease out those differences is through methods like "Difference in Differences"[1] which try to estimate causal relationships from observational data. These methods are used in marketing analysis as well. In my experience, it is easy to break one of the many assumptions inherent in methods like Diff-in-diff. Because of this I have little trust in these techniques in general. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Difference_in_differences https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Difference_in_differences

rmm 3y ago

This. Smoking was going downhill anyway

pdpi 3y ago
Until vapes came along, anyway. I really don't understand what happened there.
- refurb 3y ago
  Vapes isn’t smoking. The UK promotes vaping as a way to stop smoking.

throwawaylinux 3y ago

> Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? How could you possibly tease out the drop in tobacco use from one change to packaging? Anything in the real world has many many factors affecting its consumption. What would it matter if it was trending down specifically? Or are you asking what models and statistical tools they use to make analyses like this when there are a complex set of factors at play?

refurb 3y ago
Id love to see the confidence intervals on that 0.55% impact (p=0.5, -0.3, 1.3).

FirmwareBurner 3y ago

>Isn’t tobacco use trending down anyways? Depends where you live. Visiting the US I don't remember ever seeing anyone smoking, but in Europe it's huge, especially in centra/southern/eastern Europe, including the Balkans where coffee and cigarettes are the staple of any nutritious breakfast. I see plenty of teenagers smoking, plus on outdoor terraces and outside of offices, clubs, bars, even the balconies in my building, it's full of smokers. Europe is a few decades behind the US on giving up smoking. Also, now the hipster thing is to switch to these e-cigarettes.

em-bee 3y ago
it was somewhat of a surprise for me, visiting europe after many years, how many people still smoke there compared to what i saw in asia and africa.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  I think it's still has to do with social circle cliques and coolness factor from a young age and wanting to fit in. I think a lot of people, non smokers mostly, don't see all the bonding, networking, flirting, and general socializing that happens when smokers get together for a fag, which probably explains why this unhealthy habit is still very popular today in many countries. I know many people who met their SOs at smoking breaks or found out about new yet unpublished job opportunities from the chit-chat that happens at smoking breaks. Could be because it's seen as a socially acceptable addiction to have during daytime, granting you more breaks at work. If someone goes out every 45 minutes to play games on his phone he'll be seen as a lazy slacker, but if he were to go out for a smoke, it would be more likely to be allright, especially if his boss was also a smoker. There's something about the smoking break gatherings, from a social aspect, like asking for a cigarette, asking for a light, cupping the flame against the wind for someone, which act like natural ice breakers, conversation starters and could help create instant bonds or chit-chat opportunities, that can't be replicated at other kind of gathering during the day such as water-cooler or standings in line.
  - tetris11 3y ago

WeylandYutani 3y ago

Tobacco companies are shifting to emerging markets. India, Indonesia.

newaccount74 3y ago

Tobacco use is going down, but it's not happening on its own. It's going down because of many measures that have been implemented: - restriction of billboard advertising - restriction of tobacco ads in film and tv - warnings on packaging - photos on packaging - banning smoking in public buildings - banning smoking in restaurants - banning smoking in public transportation - banning smoking near entrances - age restrictions on buying cigarettes - banning of automatic vending machines etc. Each of those have a small effect, but in total the effect is large. It's hard to measure the effectiveness of individual measures, but in aggregate it's clear that these measures significantly reduce smoking. Especially if you compare countries where these measures have not been implemented yet with countries where they were implemented sooner.

yreg 3y ago
It could be happening on it's own as well though. We have all of these restrictions here in Europe and yet double the people smoke than in US.
- newaccount74 3y ago
  I think it just takes time. I live in Austria, and some of these measures were only introduced 5 years ago, some are still not implemented. People don't give up smoking overnight, the 20 year lead the US has over these measures is not something we can expect to catch up... Smoking is going down, slowly, and I think it's because of all these measures.
jacknews 3y ago
In my anecdotal experience, it's simply no longer cool to smoke, at all, in fact very much the opposite. I smoked for about 10 years between the mid 80s and 90s. When I started, most of the 'cool', 'sophisticated' etc people seemed to smoke. When I stopped, it was mostly a health choice, but partly because it seemed no longer 'cool', everyone I knew had given up or was trying to. I can't even fathom why anyone would start smoking now, it seems like an affliction of the poor and/or the old rather than anything sophisticated. All of this is mostly a change in fashion, people having a deeper awareness of the health risks, becoming aware of tobacco industry manipulation, etc. No doubt government messaging aided and supported that change, but it is not the only or even the main cause imho.