> So people continue to predict doomsday and most of the time it doesn’t happen. Well, the same is true for any prediction of anything unlikely. People continu

> So people continue to predict doomsday and most of the time it doesn’t happen. Well, the same is true for any prediction of anything unlikely. People continue to predict world-changing innovations, and most of the time they are wrong. That's the reality of any low-probability/high-impact prediction, in the positive or negative direction. As a specific case of that: most startups fail, so predicting a startup will fail is safe. I'm pretty prone to exactly that prediction. But I like this quote from Erik Davis (https://www.google.ch/books/edition/High_Weirdness/Rcq2DwAAQBAJ https://www.google.ch/books/edition/High_Weirdness/Rcq2DwAAQ...): "In the court of the mind, skepticism makes a great grand vizier, but a lousy lord."