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You argument is essentially hanging on the assertion that the first number an employer would offer is also the maximum number it could offer. I know exactly one

You argument is essentially hanging on the assertion that the first number an employer would offer is also the maximum number it could offer. I know exactly one company that operated like that: they'd make the maximum offer and if you did not like it there was no further negotiation. Most companies don't do that (neither does that one any more, the CEO who had this policy had retired a while ago). What I've observed in my experience is that most companies will try the minimum offer regardless if you tell them your requirements or not, which makes sense since they do research too and unlike yourself their HR has much more experience and data for that. If you were asking less than the minimum they were willing to pay they will likely still pay the minimum as the sibling suggests, there is no point to save and get to hire again for the same position in a couple of months. I think it's an illusion people get when they ask for a number and get it without much fuss. It makes them think they asked too little but in reality the hiring manager had the range like 200-250 and you asked for 210. Why would he bother to try to push you down to 200? On the other hand, why would he offer anything other than 200 if you did not ask?

saagarjha 3y ago
Why wouldn’t he offer you 225 or 230 if he thought you were an important hire?
- pandaman 3y ago
  Because if you were an important hire you'd be impressed more when the comp was eventually pushed all the way to 250 from 200 than to 250 from 230. There is no advantage in offering you 225 or 230 at all.
  - saagarjha 3y ago
    If I was an important hire I probably have a handful of 230s in my hand already. It’s easy for me to not bother with a company who may or may not push from 200 to 250.
    - pandaman 3y ago
      If you had a handful of 230s you would not negotiate? That's quite rare, most companies optimize hiring for the most probable case, not for the outliers.
      - saagarjha 3y ago
        I mean if I had a couple why would I bother with the one that’s lowballing me?
        pandaman 3y ago
        Because you could use your offers against each other as a leverage, dropping any of the offers decreases your leverage. Most people want more leverage when negotiating, not less.
pdonis 3y ago
> You argument is essentially hanging on the assertion that the first number an employer would offer is also the maximum number it could offer. Not at all. You should expect to negotiate once they have made an offer. But your negotiating position will be better if you don't give a number first. > in reality the hiring manager had the range like 200-250 and you asked for 210. Why would he bother to try to push you down to 200? Because you've now anchored the negotiation at 210 as the max, and he's going to try to get you for less because this is business. He's not going to just take your first number any more than you would just accept his first offer. Whereas if you hadn't anchored the negotiation there wouldn't be a ceiling at 210. > On the other hand, why would he offer anything other than 200 if you did not ask? He might not. But if he offers 200 and you have not given any number at all, you can negotiate and possibly get more than 210. Whereas if you'd given 210 first you would never get more.
- pandaman 3y ago
  >Because you've now anchored the negotiation at 210 as the max, and he's going to try to get you for less because this is business. Why though? The manager has a budget, you are within the budget, getting into negotiation when the condition is already satisfied can, at most, win 10K per year and lose the whole placement, which will cost much more in the additional search. >But if he offers 200 and you have not given any number at all, you can negotiate and possibly get more than 210. You also might get less.
  - pdonis 3y ago
    > Why though? If you say 210, are you going to absolutely refuse any offer that's less than that? If you would, then you picked a bad number: you should have said 220. Or 230. Or 250. You've already hypothesized that the manager's actual range is 200-250; given that hypothesis, you should be targeting at least the top of that range, not the bottom 20%, if you're going to give a number at all. And if your objection to that is that you don't know the manager's range, yes, that's the point! That's why you shouldn't be risking anchoring the conversation in the wrong place. If you wouldn't refuse an offer less than 210, then the manager is not going to lose the placement by negotiating with you for less. Yes, 210 is "within budget", but that doesn't mean negotiating for less has no benefit. That's still budget he could now use for something else. In my experience any number you give is not going to be interpreted as your absolute minimum. It's going to be interpreted as the first step in a negotiation--one in which you should have waited for the company to take the first step, but you didn't and the company will feel no compunction in taking advantage of that. But in any case, even if you get 210, you have, as I said, foreclosed any chance of getting more. See below. > You also might get less. But you're not going to get more, and that's what you should be thinking about. You've already said the manager's actual range is 200-250. If you say 210, then, as noted above, you're restricting yourself to just the bottom 20% of that range no matter what. If you give no number and the manager offers 200, when his range is 200-250, that probably means he views you as a baseline hire and you wouldn't have gotten 210 anyway if you'd given that number first. In any case you're no worse off not giving a number; the key point is that the manager views you as a baseline hire. If you give no number and you're a good enough hire that the manager would give you at least 210, he'll probably offer 210. And then you can negotiate from there.

saagarjha 3y ago

Why wouldn’t he offer you 225 or 230 if he thought you were an important hire?

pandaman 3y ago
Because if you were an important hire you'd be impressed more when the comp was eventually pushed all the way to 250 from 200 than to 250 from 230. There is no advantage in offering you 225 or 230 at all.
- saagarjha 3y ago
  If I was an important hire I probably have a handful of 230s in my hand already. It’s easy for me to not bother with a company who may or may not push from 200 to 250.
  - pandaman 3y ago
    If you had a handful of 230s you would not negotiate? That's quite rare, most companies optimize hiring for the most probable case, not for the outliers.
    - saagarjha 3y ago
      I mean if I had a couple why would I bother with the one that’s lowballing me?
      - pandaman 3y ago
        Because you could use your offers against each other as a leverage, dropping any of the offers decreases your leverage. Most people want more leverage when negotiating, not less.

pdonis 3y ago

> You argument is essentially hanging on the assertion that the first number an employer would offer is also the maximum number it could offer. Not at all. You should expect to negotiate once they have made an offer. But your negotiating position will be better if you don't give a number first. > in reality the hiring manager had the range like 200-250 and you asked for 210. Why would he bother to try to push you down to 200? Because you've now anchored the negotiation at 210 as the max, and he's going to try to get you for less because this is business. He's not going to just take your first number any more than you would just accept his first offer. Whereas if you hadn't anchored the negotiation there wouldn't be a ceiling at 210. > On the other hand, why would he offer anything other than 200 if you did not ask? He might not. But if he offers 200 and you have not given any number at all, you can negotiate and possibly get more than 210. Whereas if you'd given 210 first you would never get more.

pandaman 3y ago
>Because you've now anchored the negotiation at 210 as the max, and he's going to try to get you for less because this is business. Why though? The manager has a budget, you are within the budget, getting into negotiation when the condition is already satisfied can, at most, win 10K per year and lose the whole placement, which will cost much more in the additional search. >But if he offers 200 and you have not given any number at all, you can negotiate and possibly get more than 210. You also might get less.
- pdonis 3y ago
  > Why though? If you say 210, are you going to absolutely refuse any offer that's less than that? If you would, then you picked a bad number: you should have said 220. Or 230. Or 250. You've already hypothesized that the manager's actual range is 200-250; given that hypothesis, you should be targeting at least the top of that range, not the bottom 20%, if you're going to give a number at all. And if your objection to that is that you don't know the manager's range, yes, that's the point! That's why you shouldn't be risking anchoring the conversation in the wrong place. If you wouldn't refuse an offer less than 210, then the manager is not going to lose the placement by negotiating with you for less. Yes, 210 is "within budget", but that doesn't mean negotiating for less has no benefit. That's still budget he could now use for something else. In my experience any number you give is not going to be interpreted as your absolute minimum. It's going to be interpreted as the first step in a negotiation--one in which you should have waited for the company to take the first step, but you didn't and the company will feel no compunction in taking advantage of that. But in any case, even if you get 210, you have, as I said, foreclosed any chance of getting more. See below. > You also might get less. But you're not going to get more, and that's what you should be thinking about. You've already said the manager's actual range is 200-250. If you say 210, then, as noted above, you're restricting yourself to just the bottom 20% of that range no matter what. If you give no number and the manager offers 200, when his range is 200-250, that probably means he views you as a baseline hire and you wouldn't have gotten 210 anyway if you'd given that number first. In any case you're no worse off not giving a number; the key point is that the manager views you as a baseline hire. If you give no number and you're a good enough hire that the manager would give you at least 210, he'll probably offer 210. And then you can negotiate from there.