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Absolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot

Absolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run?

reilly3000 3y ago
It’s basically a meme stock now. I don’t think anyone should be surprised by wide swings and irrational pricing going forward into the next few months.
- pb7 3y ago
  What makes it a meme stock? It's printing money from an industry that is only starting. This isn't crypto nonsense.
  - fnordpiglet 3y ago
    Yeah, every company of any note is planning how to use AI, and a lot of the use cases are already proved out. This isn’t speculative nonsense. The question is how big does it get, not will it be big. Crypto and blockchain never had an actual proved out use case. There was an interesting idea but no one ever could figure out a way it was useful. The costs associated were much higher than the risks of not using it. People who think this is a meme aren’t paying attention, and they’re certainly not in the rooms of power where AI planning is happening at megacorps. I’ve been in them, and it’s serious and material and we are just now beginning to scratch the surface.
    - reilly3000 3y ago
      I’m saying all of that growth has been priced in for multiple years now. It’s likely to have very solid fundamentals and new relationships in enterprises everywhere for years to come. As such it’s ripe for overvaluation by both retail and institutional traders. If I had a horse in this race I would ride the wave for a while as others piled on, then take a nice honest profit before one of their many competitors turns in a healthy AI driven quarter like this. It will still be a strong stock, but expect some significant flux in a correction.
      - fnordpiglet 3y ago
        100% it’ll be an overshoot. Always is. But, I think the top is really hard to gauge this time.
  - kelvie 3y ago
    (Not sure if it's true), but a meme stock is one whose price is propped up by retail traders, and spreads through social media / word-of-mouth, as memes do. How we prove it's one is probably another matter.
    - pb7 3y ago
      Retail investors make up a low single digit percent of individual stock ownership. /r/wallstreetbets is not putting even a dent in a $1T company's stock price.
- danielmarkbruce 3y ago
  Top line growing 100% a year, faster recently..... Doesn't take long for $50 bill pa to turn into 1 trillion pa at that rate...
- vsareto 3y ago
  I don't think the market leader for graphics cards -- a technically complex product compared to a bunch of brick stores selling video games -- is what you can consider a meme stock
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
mikeweiss 3y ago
In my opinion it's likely mostly pull forward demand. Companies are racing to buy as many chips as possible and hoard them. I already saw a few posts here on HN from companies that threw down insane amounts of $$ on H100s and are now looking to rent out their excess capacity. I'm guessing we'll be seeing a lot more posts like that soon.
- mortehu 3y ago
  Looking to rent out, or fully booked for the next year and looking to buy more GPUs?
mholm 3y ago
Nvidia is the pickaxe seller in a gold rush. Their valuation is very much tied to how big AI grows in the next several years, and how quickly competitors can arise. I could easily see them continuing to go up from here, especially if AI keeps on expanding utility instead of leveling off as some fear.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- creer 3y ago
  Very much so. Nvidia was lucky with the perfect sequence of video and compute farms, then cryptocurrency and model training, and now the model training direction is flowering into application (hopes) left and right. But they did great with their luck. And now they are yet again in the position of selling tools to soak up everyone else's capital investment power. They are still now (and yet again) at the perfect spot for a giant new market. But that's still a high valuation - that is even if that new market grows to the sky, it's not clear that it can justify that new valuation. Is Nvidia failing anytime soon? No. Is it the best investment you can find? That's harder to tell which is why the complaint of "very high valuation already". It's not in doubt that it's a great business. It's less easy to decide whether it's a great investment to get in right now. But everything is relative a PE around 40-60 is NOT historically crazy high for the verge of a giant new market. And yet it is very high for a trillion dollar market cap. This is exciting: a trillion dollar market cap at the verge of a giant new market!
tmn 3y ago
Valuation fundamentals don't justify current prices. That said it could easily go higher (much higher). Passive investing has created a constant bid that has significantly distorted price discovery compared to pre passive era.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
rvz 3y ago
> The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. 8% is close to nothing in stocks. Biotech stocks go up and down more than that without earnings announcements. > Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run? As long as fine-tuning, training or even using these models are inefficient and no other efficient alternatives to that without these GPUs, then Nvidia will remain unchallenged unless that changes. EDIT: It is true like it or not AI bros. There are too many to list. For example, just yesterday: Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) 38% up. China SXT Pharmaceuticals (CM:SXTC) down 25%. Regencell Bioscience Holdings (RGC) 28% up. NanoViricides (NNVC) up 20%. Armata Pharmaceuticals (ARMP) down 23%. [0] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech
- pb7 3y ago
  Biotechs are lottery tickets, not stocks. You're just gambling on binary results.
  - gorenb 3y ago
    Stocks are lottery tickets…
    - rvz 3y ago
      Exactly. Nvidia is just one of many lottery tickets and 8% in one day is hardly volatile in stocks.
      - mthoms 3y ago
        The point is that 8% is volatile relative to the market cap. That's a massive amount of (paper) wealth being created.
      - saberience 3y ago
        Volatility in stocks is measured in terms of “IV” (implied volatility) and Nvidia (and Tesla) have some of the highest IV in the stock market which is why they are so interesting for people trading in options making money from theta decay. Also I would add, volatility measures continued volatility over periods of time, not single days. Most pharma stocks are essentially static for months or years until they announce one good result and the stock jumps 30% in a day. This doesnt mean they are volatile stocks, compare Gileads IV to Tesla for example.
squeaky-clean 3y ago
It's pretty overpriced already if you're looking at the fundamentals, and has been for a while. But fundamentals haven't really mattered in tech stocks for a long time. If you want the responsible advice, it's overpriced. If you want my personal advice, well I bought more yesterday afternoon.
- what_ever 3y ago
  Can you add a little more color on what fundamentals is it overpriced? Have you looked at their QoQ growth (not even YoY) for last few quarters? I would say the stock price is just trying to keep up with the numbers they are putting out.
  - ripper1138 3y ago
    Their quarterly dividend is only $0.04 per share, total assets at 50B (vs 350B+ for other 1T companies), they cannot easily sell more chips and increasing price can only go so far.
    - AnotherGoodName 3y ago
      A lot of stocks don't pay dividends at all. They are problematic with tax and theoretically the same benefit can be achieved with buybacks.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- AnotherGoodName 3y ago
  I don't see it. It would have been overpriced if not for this insane report. 854% YoY earnings growth. A PE that's now below 50 (even taking into account the $500 share price). Its not overpriced anymore. In fact if there's anything left in the tank or this is at all sustained it's cheap.
epolanski 3y ago
This incredible growth was already priced in at 250$. Now it's just crazy.
csomar 3y ago
I would not predict a peak if I didn't predict this rise (which most people didn't?). A new crypto that requires GPU mining, continued AI boom, GPUs being used for something else?, etc.. Their price could go infinitely up.
gen220 3y ago
The fundamental model of company valuation is that the company's equity is worth the accumulation of the company's future cash flows, typically discounted by some rate so that predicted cash flows 5 years from now are worth some % less than 100%, with the intent of pricing in uncertainty. Nvidia has had a watershed moment of revenue growth, because they're the only significant player in the space of top-of-the-line GPUs for training LLMs. Their current valuation bakes in the assumption that not only is this unprecedented level of pricing power durable, but that top line revenue will also grow significantly over the next few years. Reminder that Nvidia is selling chips, mostly to datacenters, whose purchasing habits are primarily driven by "customer" demand (where customers are, in this case, tech companies wanting to train neural nets). So a bet that they go up from here is a bet that datacenters will want at least as many chips in the next N continuous quarters, and will be willing to pay the current premium that Nvidia is charging, today. The corollary is you're betting that "customer demand" for ever-improving GPUs is climbing an incredibly upwards, secular (read: permanent, non-cyclical) trajectory, such that it outpaces the assumptions of these already-lofty expectations. I think betray my own opinion, but the price is what it is. :)
- saberience 3y ago
  So you think demand for AI driven software and tools is going to stop growing over the next few years? It’s a big call. I think it’s just the beginning personally but time will tell.
  - gen220 3y ago
    Note it isn’t the demand for AI driven software and tools that has to be sustained or increased, it’s the demand for massive GPUs that are used to train AI tools. To make a flawed analogy, but if people want oil (AI), NVDA sells drills (means of AI production). Demand for each is obviously correlated, but the profile of demand for the two products is really different.

reilly3000 3y ago

It’s basically a meme stock now. I don’t think anyone should be surprised by wide swings and irrational pricing going forward into the next few months.

pb7 3y ago
What makes it a meme stock? It's printing money from an industry that is only starting. This isn't crypto nonsense.
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  Yeah, every company of any note is planning how to use AI, and a lot of the use cases are already proved out. This isn’t speculative nonsense. The question is how big does it get, not will it be big. Crypto and blockchain never had an actual proved out use case. There was an interesting idea but no one ever could figure out a way it was useful. The costs associated were much higher than the risks of not using it. People who think this is a meme aren’t paying attention, and they’re certainly not in the rooms of power where AI planning is happening at megacorps. I’ve been in them, and it’s serious and material and we are just now beginning to scratch the surface.
  - reilly3000 3y ago
    I’m saying all of that growth has been priced in for multiple years now. It’s likely to have very solid fundamentals and new relationships in enterprises everywhere for years to come. As such it’s ripe for overvaluation by both retail and institutional traders. If I had a horse in this race I would ride the wave for a while as others piled on, then take a nice honest profit before one of their many competitors turns in a healthy AI driven quarter like this. It will still be a strong stock, but expect some significant flux in a correction.
    - fnordpiglet 3y ago
      100% it’ll be an overshoot. Always is. But, I think the top is really hard to gauge this time.
- kelvie 3y ago
  (Not sure if it's true), but a meme stock is one whose price is propped up by retail traders, and spreads through social media / word-of-mouth, as memes do. How we prove it's one is probably another matter.
  - pb7 3y ago
    Retail investors make up a low single digit percent of individual stock ownership. /r/wallstreetbets is not putting even a dent in a $1T company's stock price.
danielmarkbruce 3y ago
Top line growing 100% a year, faster recently..... Doesn't take long for $50 bill pa to turn into 1 trillion pa at that rate...
vsareto 3y ago
I don't think the market leader for graphics cards -- a technically complex product compared to a bunch of brick stores selling video games -- is what you can consider a meme stock
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

mikeweiss 3y ago

In my opinion it's likely mostly pull forward demand. Companies are racing to buy as many chips as possible and hoard them. I already saw a few posts here on HN from companies that threw down insane amounts of $$ on H100s and are now looking to rent out their excess capacity. I'm guessing we'll be seeing a lot more posts like that soon.

mortehu 3y ago
Looking to rent out, or fully booked for the next year and looking to buy more GPUs?

mholm 3y ago

Nvidia is the pickaxe seller in a gold rush. Their valuation is very much tied to how big AI grows in the next several years, and how quickly competitors can arise. I could easily see them continuing to go up from here, especially if AI keeps on expanding utility instead of leveling off as some fear.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
creer 3y ago
Very much so. Nvidia was lucky with the perfect sequence of video and compute farms, then cryptocurrency and model training, and now the model training direction is flowering into application (hopes) left and right. But they did great with their luck. And now they are yet again in the position of selling tools to soak up everyone else's capital investment power. They are still now (and yet again) at the perfect spot for a giant new market. But that's still a high valuation - that is even if that new market grows to the sky, it's not clear that it can justify that new valuation. Is Nvidia failing anytime soon? No. Is it the best investment you can find? That's harder to tell which is why the complaint of "very high valuation already". It's not in doubt that it's a great business. It's less easy to decide whether it's a great investment to get in right now. But everything is relative a PE around 40-60 is NOT historically crazy high for the verge of a giant new market. And yet it is very high for a trillion dollar market cap. This is exciting: a trillion dollar market cap at the verge of a giant new market!

tmn 3y ago

Valuation fundamentals don't justify current prices. That said it could easily go higher (much higher). Passive investing has created a constant bid that has significantly distorted price discovery compared to pre passive era.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

rvz 3y ago

> The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. 8% is close to nothing in stocks. Biotech stocks go up and down more than that without earnings announcements. > Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run? As long as fine-tuning, training or even using these models are inefficient and no other efficient alternatives to that without these GPUs, then Nvidia will remain unchallenged unless that changes. EDIT: It is true like it or not AI bros. There are too many to list. For example, just yesterday: Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) 38% up. China SXT Pharmaceuticals (CM:SXTC) down 25%. Regencell Bioscience Holdings (RGC) 28% up. NanoViricides (NNVC) up 20%. Armata Pharmaceuticals (ARMP) down 23%. [0] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech

pb7 3y ago
Biotechs are lottery tickets, not stocks. You're just gambling on binary results.
- gorenb 3y ago
  Stocks are lottery tickets…
  - rvz 3y ago
    Exactly. Nvidia is just one of many lottery tickets and 8% in one day is hardly volatile in stocks.
    - mthoms 3y ago
      The point is that 8% is volatile relative to the market cap. That's a massive amount of (paper) wealth being created.
    - saberience 3y ago
      Volatility in stocks is measured in terms of “IV” (implied volatility) and Nvidia (and Tesla) have some of the highest IV in the stock market which is why they are so interesting for people trading in options making money from theta decay. Also I would add, volatility measures continued volatility over periods of time, not single days. Most pharma stocks are essentially static for months or years until they announce one good result and the stock jumps 30% in a day. This doesnt mean they are volatile stocks, compare Gileads IV to Tesla for example.

squeaky-clean 3y ago

It's pretty overpriced already if you're looking at the fundamentals, and has been for a while. But fundamentals haven't really mattered in tech stocks for a long time. If you want the responsible advice, it's overpriced. If you want my personal advice, well I bought more yesterday afternoon.

what_ever 3y ago
Can you add a little more color on what fundamentals is it overpriced? Have you looked at their QoQ growth (not even YoY) for last few quarters? I would say the stock price is just trying to keep up with the numbers they are putting out.
- ripper1138 3y ago
  Their quarterly dividend is only $0.04 per share, total assets at 50B (vs 350B+ for other 1T companies), they cannot easily sell more chips and increasing price can only go so far.
  - AnotherGoodName 3y ago
    A lot of stocks don't pay dividends at all. They are problematic with tax and theoretically the same benefit can be achieved with buybacks.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
AnotherGoodName 3y ago
I don't see it. It would have been overpriced if not for this insane report. 854% YoY earnings growth. A PE that's now below 50 (even taking into account the $500 share price). Its not overpriced anymore. In fact if there's anything left in the tank or this is at all sustained it's cheap.

epolanski 3y ago

This incredible growth was already priced in at 250$. Now it's just crazy.

csomar 3y ago

I would not predict a peak if I didn't predict this rise (which most people didn't?). A new crypto that requires GPU mining, continued AI boom, GPUs being used for something else?, etc.. Their price could go infinitely up.

gen220 3y ago

The fundamental model of company valuation is that the company's equity is worth the accumulation of the company's future cash flows, typically discounted by some rate so that predicted cash flows 5 years from now are worth some % less than 100%, with the intent of pricing in uncertainty. Nvidia has had a watershed moment of revenue growth, because they're the only significant player in the space of top-of-the-line GPUs for training LLMs. Their current valuation bakes in the assumption that not only is this unprecedented level of pricing power durable, but that top line revenue will also grow significantly over the next few years. Reminder that Nvidia is selling chips, mostly to datacenters, whose purchasing habits are primarily driven by "customer" demand (where customers are, in this case, tech companies wanting to train neural nets). So a bet that they go up from here is a bet that datacenters will want at least as many chips in the next N continuous quarters, and will be willing to pay the current premium that Nvidia is charging, today. The corollary is you're betting that "customer demand" for ever-improving GPUs is climbing an incredibly upwards, secular (read: permanent, non-cyclical) trajectory, such that it outpaces the assumptions of these already-lofty expectations. I think betray my own opinion, but the price is what it is. :)

saberience 3y ago
So you think demand for AI driven software and tools is going to stop growing over the next few years? It’s a big call. I think it’s just the beginning personally but time will tell.
- gen220 3y ago
  Note it isn’t the demand for AI driven software and tools that has to be sustained or increased, it’s the demand for massive GPUs that are used to train AI tools. To make a flawed analogy, but if people want oil (AI), NVDA sells drills (means of AI production). Demand for each is obviously correlated, but the profile of demand for the two products is really different.