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Okay, but as high-minded as this prose is, it ignores a pretty crucial thing - the only reason Wagner existed in the first place was to give some amount of plau

Okay, but as high-minded as this prose is, it ignores a pretty crucial thing - the only reason Wagner existed in the first place was to give some amount of plausible deniability between Russia and their foreign policy interventions. So countries like Germany could have a legal precedent to trade with Russia so long as all of the war crimes were technically off of the books. So not only was this a huge miscalculation nationally that deeply embarrassed Putin, Wagner was supposed to look independent. So beseeching Putin for help only made it worse. The irony is that Prigozhin probably thought he had leverage, but the only real thing of value to Moscow about Wagner's sad little army was the independence.

x0x0 3y ago
Sure, Wagner being "independent" in Africa was helpful. The cause of this dispute, however, was the Russian MoD (Shoigu and Gerasimov) had decided that all Wagner employees operating in Ukraine and Russia were going to become part of the regular Russian military. Before Prigozhin's ersatz mutiny. see eg https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-trying-to-take-control-of-wagner-mercenary-group-2023-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-trying-to-ta... Thus there was no remaining pretense of independence, at least wrt Wagner forces operating in Ukraine. I also don't think it embarrassed Putin, or at least not in the manner that (I suspect) you think. Putin's role is to intermediate disputes between the various competing boyars beneath him. He had let the Shoigu + Gerasimov vs Progozhin dispute fester instead of picking a winner. Hence Progozhin's march. The embarrassment stems from not fulfilling the role that only Putin can play in their political system (ie the final determination of disputes from the various independent actors operating underneath him, including both formal state agencies and oligarchs/informal agencies.) Also, Prigozhin's post-march endgame was obvious: he continues to operate Wagner in Ukraine, and -- if possible -- removes Shoigu + Gerasimov. With an eye to developing his own independent power base in Russia, which Prigozhin didn't previously have.
- mrguyorama 3y ago
  If you think the plan to nationlize Wagner wasn't explicitly approved by Putin, I have a bridge to sell you. Ukraine might blow it up though.

x0x0 3y ago

Sure, Wagner being "independent" in Africa was helpful. The cause of this dispute, however, was the Russian MoD (Shoigu and Gerasimov) had decided that all Wagner employees operating in Ukraine and Russia were going to become part of the regular Russian military. Before Prigozhin's ersatz mutiny. see eg https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-trying-to-take-control-of-wagner-mercenary-group-2023-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-trying-to-ta... Thus there was no remaining pretense of independence, at least wrt Wagner forces operating in Ukraine. I also don't think it embarrassed Putin, or at least not in the manner that (I suspect) you think. Putin's role is to intermediate disputes between the various competing boyars beneath him. He had let the Shoigu + Gerasimov vs Progozhin dispute fester instead of picking a winner. Hence Progozhin's march. The embarrassment stems from not fulfilling the role that only Putin can play in their political system (ie the final determination of disputes from the various independent actors operating underneath him, including both formal state agencies and oligarchs/informal agencies.) Also, Prigozhin's post-march endgame was obvious: he continues to operate Wagner in Ukraine, and -- if possible -- removes Shoigu + Gerasimov. With an eye to developing his own independent power base in Russia, which Prigozhin didn't previously have.

mrguyorama 3y ago
If you think the plan to nationlize Wagner wasn't explicitly approved by Putin, I have a bridge to sell you. Ukraine might blow it up though.