4 ms·

Even the official story seems to be air defense.

by yreg 3y ago

maxbond 3y ago
[I am not a pilot.] [ETA: see replies, I've been convinced that air defense is, with the available information at this particular moment, the most likely explanation.] I've read a few articles and not seen that suggested, but this is a developing story. WSJ is reporting that this is footage of the crash: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UQAUj914h0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UQAUj914h0 Assuming it's genuine, that looks more like a stall than a surface to air missile to my untrained eyes.
- stickfigure 3y ago
  There are clearer videos posted, some showing that it's missing a wing.
  - maxbond 3y ago
    Do you have a link?
    - stickfigure 3y ago
      Try this? https://t.me/pilotblog/6196 https://t.me/pilotblog/6196 In particular, the video with the "112" watermark.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - maxbond 3y ago
        Interesting, yes I see what you mean, and it does look to my (again untrained) eye that these are videos of the same event.
- HillRat 3y ago
  Both the parent article and this one seem to omit the first several seconds of the video, which shows what looks like dissipating smoke clouds above the plane; the woman filming it mentions hearing two explosions and seems to think it's a Ukrainian drone being shot down.
  - maxbond 3y ago
    Gotcha. I see the smoke here for just a moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_awL0T_OY&t=341 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_awL0T_OY&t=341
- 7e 3y ago
  More like air offense.
mrguyorama 3y ago
The best part is that it plausibly could have been an accident. Russia has shot down MULTIPLE of their own planes and helicopters, and allegedly russian SAM crews are under trained and very very much on edge, and that was before a drone blew up next to the kremlin and multiple drones exploding in moscow for like an entire week.
- Hamuko 3y ago
  How many domestic flights has Russia downed? The plane was like 11 minutes into a Moscow to St. Petersburg leg. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-02795#31b7cbfb https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-02795#31b7cbf...
  - mrtksn 3y ago
    Not necessarily domestic but Russian Air Defence systems has a rich history of downing passenger planes. From recent history, Iran downed Ukrainian passenger plane in Tehran using Russian Tor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines... Russian backed rebels downed Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine using Russia supplied Buk: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 Then there are other incidents during the Cold War.
    - arp242 3y ago
      AUI752 was shot down by Iranians, not Russians. They happened to be using gear bought from Russia, but that's not really important. MH17 wasn't shot down by the Russian military either, but independent rebels. Basically Russia gave anti-aircraft equipment to disorganized yahoos, who then proceeded to do disorganized yahoo things with it. Surprised Pikachu face. All of this could have happened with US equipment too; the equipment wasn't at fault, the choices people made were at fault, and those choices weren't (directly) made by the Russian military. That said, friendly fire has happened in combat zones (e.g. [1]), but this is ... kind of normal and happens in any armed force, and Prigozhin's plane wasn't anywhere near a combat zone. It's still possible it was mistaken for a drone or missile (especially as there have been missile attacks), but I don't know ... seems a little to coincidental it just so happens to be Prigozhin's plane, especially with the history of people inconvenient to Putin falling out of windows, down stairs, ending up with radioactive material in their possession without their knowledge, brutally accidentally cutting of their own head while combing their hair, etc. [1]: https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/07/russia-shot-down-its-own-aircraft-again-report/ https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/07/russia-shot-down-it...
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

Even the official story seems to be air defense.

by yreg 3y ago

Even the official story seems to be air defense.

[I am not a pilot.] [ETA: see replies, I've been convinced that air defense is, with the available information at this particular moment, the most likely explanation.] I've read a few articles and not seen that suggested, but this is a developing story. WSJ is reporting that this is footage of the crash: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UQAUj914h0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UQAUj914h0 Assuming it's genuine, that looks more like a stall than a surface to air missile to my untrained eyes.

stickfigure 3y ago
There are clearer videos posted, some showing that it's missing a wing.
- maxbond 3y ago
  Do you have a link?
  - stickfigure 3y ago
    Try this? https://t.me/pilotblog/6196 https://t.me/pilotblog/6196 In particular, the video with the "112" watermark.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - maxbond 3y ago
      Interesting, yes I see what you mean, and it does look to my (again untrained) eye that these are videos of the same event.
HillRat 3y ago
Both the parent article and this one seem to omit the first several seconds of the video, which shows what looks like dissipating smoke clouds above the plane; the woman filming it mentions hearing two explosions and seems to think it's a Ukrainian drone being shot down.
- maxbond 3y ago
  Gotcha. I see the smoke here for just a moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_awL0T_OY&t=341 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_awL0T_OY&t=341
7e 3y ago
More like air offense.

mrguyorama 3y ago

The best part is that it plausibly could have been an accident. Russia has shot down MULTIPLE of their own planes and helicopters, and allegedly russian SAM crews are under trained and very very much on edge, and that was before a drone blew up next to the kremlin and multiple drones exploding in moscow for like an entire week.

Hamuko 3y ago
How many domestic flights has Russia downed? The plane was like 11 minutes into a Moscow to St. Petersburg leg. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-02795#31b7cbfb https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-02795#31b7cbf...
- mrtksn 3y ago
  Not necessarily domestic but Russian Air Defence systems has a rich history of downing passenger planes. From recent history, Iran downed Ukrainian passenger plane in Tehran using Russian Tor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines... Russian backed rebels downed Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine using Russia supplied Buk: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 Then there are other incidents during the Cold War.
  - arp242 3y ago
    AUI752 was shot down by Iranians, not Russians. They happened to be using gear bought from Russia, but that's not really important. MH17 wasn't shot down by the Russian military either, but independent rebels. Basically Russia gave anti-aircraft equipment to disorganized yahoos, who then proceeded to do disorganized yahoo things with it. Surprised Pikachu face. All of this could have happened with US equipment too; the equipment wasn't at fault, the choices people made were at fault, and those choices weren't (directly) made by the Russian military. That said, friendly fire has happened in combat zones (e.g. [1]), but this is ... kind of normal and happens in any armed force, and Prigozhin's plane wasn't anywhere near a combat zone. It's still possible it was mistaken for a drone or missile (especially as there have been missile attacks), but I don't know ... seems a little to coincidental it just so happens to be Prigozhin's plane, especially with the history of people inconvenient to Putin falling out of windows, down stairs, ending up with radioactive material in their possession without their knowledge, brutally accidentally cutting of their own head while combing their hair, etc. [1]: https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/07/russia-shot-down-its-own-aircraft-again-report/ https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/07/russia-shot-down-it...

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]