4 ms·

Easy: he thought the coup would be the action with the highest chance of success at the point when he had committed himself to going ahead with it. He was goin

Easy: he thought the coup would be the action with the highest chance of success at the point when he had committed himself to going ahead with it. He was going to lose control of Wagner if the coup didn't succeed, whether or not he tried. So no surprise he made that attempt. You don't get to where he did in life without being bold, taking risks, and being lucky. And it's likely that at the point where he had already committed himself to the coup, it looked more likely to succeed than it does now with the benefit of hindsight. As for why he kept hanging around Russia... where else is he going to go? He was a wanted man everywhere. Wanted by both the civilized world, and Russia. There are no good options in that circumstance.

legitster 3y ago
Still, if your options are ending up in The Hague or getting fired by your murderous boss, internationally embarrassing your boss in order to get a better severance package seems to be so much, much worse than either option. But again, we are talking about a literal mafia boss. He probably was dumb enough to think he had actual leverage.
- Gud 3y ago
  What makes you think a mafia boss would be stupid? Wouldn't street smart be exactly the kind of trait that would put you in the upper echelons of a mafia state such as Russia. I think there is a lot more to this story than what has come to light. I suspect they were threatening to kill his family and had the means to do so.
  - civilitty 3y ago
    > What makes you think a mafia boss would be stupid? Wouldn't street smart be exactly the kind of trait that would put you in the upper echelons of a mafia state such as Russia. What makes you think a mafia boss would be smart? Their defining features are ruthlessness and brutality, not intelligence or "street smarts". Putin for example is known for bombing civilian apartment buildings to get into power and very publicly poisoning traitors with polonium and nerve agents, not to mention entering a disastrous war and tanking the Russian economy. Those upper echelons are only there as an accident of history. They were in the right place and the right time to loot the Russian state during privatization while killing, imprisoning, and controlling all their opposition.
    - anthony_d 3y ago
      > Those upper echelons are only there as an accident of history. That seems like an awfully bold assertion. Mafia bosses have a different set of rules than most of us, but to think they survive by repeatedly flipping a coin and being lucky is preposterous.
      - civilitty 3y ago
        That’s literally how all the Russian oligarchs got their power. By being in the right place at the right time to buy up all the privatized industries for a tiny fraction of what they were literally worth. Those that flipped tails are dead or in prison.
        ethbr1 3y ago
        If you pick 100 people off the street, line them up for a race for a million dollars, and fire a starting pistol... the one who crosses the finish line first doesn't do so by luck.
    - Gud 3y ago
      So you do not believe intelligence played a role? It was inconsequential how smart a person was?
- culebron21 3y ago
  I think you're judging him by values of "normal" people and weigh the average outcomes of choices. But criminals are known as people willing to take risks and would bet on low-probable but very lucrative outcome. A route in Hague was a guaranteed lifetime sentence, while playing some role in the elites gave some low-probable possibilities.
ethbr1 3y ago
> Easy: he thought the coup would be the action with the highest chance of success at the point when he had committed himself to going ahead with it. From some of the post-coup reporting (Washington Post?), there were comments from the US intel community that the coup had much wider support past Wagner, but was set to launch several days later. Russian intelligence caught wind of it... and decision was made to launch it prematurely. Granted, the US intel community is far from an unbiased party, but it would explain Prigozhin's calculus is a more believable way. And oligarchs being upset at Putin for upsetting the business-as-usual applecart for no good reason isn't unreasonable.

legitster 3y ago

Still, if your options are ending up in The Hague or getting fired by your murderous boss, internationally embarrassing your boss in order to get a better severance package seems to be so much, much worse than either option. But again, we are talking about a literal mafia boss. He probably was dumb enough to think he had actual leverage.

Gud 3y ago
What makes you think a mafia boss would be stupid? Wouldn't street smart be exactly the kind of trait that would put you in the upper echelons of a mafia state such as Russia. I think there is a lot more to this story than what has come to light. I suspect they were threatening to kill his family and had the means to do so.
- civilitty 3y ago
  > What makes you think a mafia boss would be stupid? Wouldn't street smart be exactly the kind of trait that would put you in the upper echelons of a mafia state such as Russia. What makes you think a mafia boss would be smart? Their defining features are ruthlessness and brutality, not intelligence or "street smarts". Putin for example is known for bombing civilian apartment buildings to get into power and very publicly poisoning traitors with polonium and nerve agents, not to mention entering a disastrous war and tanking the Russian economy. Those upper echelons are only there as an accident of history. They were in the right place and the right time to loot the Russian state during privatization while killing, imprisoning, and controlling all their opposition.
  - anthony_d 3y ago
    > Those upper echelons are only there as an accident of history. That seems like an awfully bold assertion. Mafia bosses have a different set of rules than most of us, but to think they survive by repeatedly flipping a coin and being lucky is preposterous.
    - civilitty 3y ago
      That’s literally how all the Russian oligarchs got their power. By being in the right place at the right time to buy up all the privatized industries for a tiny fraction of what they were literally worth. Those that flipped tails are dead or in prison.
      - ethbr1 3y ago
        If you pick 100 people off the street, line them up for a race for a million dollars, and fire a starting pistol... the one who crosses the finish line first doesn't do so by luck.
  - Gud 3y ago
    So you do not believe intelligence played a role? It was inconsequential how smart a person was?
culebron21 3y ago
I think you're judging him by values of "normal" people and weigh the average outcomes of choices. But criminals are known as people willing to take risks and would bet on low-probable but very lucrative outcome. A route in Hague was a guaranteed lifetime sentence, while playing some role in the elites gave some low-probable possibilities.

ethbr1 3y ago

> Easy: he thought the coup would be the action with the highest chance of success at the point when he had committed himself to going ahead with it. From some of the post-coup reporting (Washington Post?), there were comments from the US intel community that the coup had much wider support past Wagner, but was set to launch several days later. Russian intelligence caught wind of it... and decision was made to launch it prematurely. Granted, the US intel community is far from an unbiased party, but it would explain Prigozhin's calculus is a more believable way. And oligarchs being upset at Putin for upsetting the business-as-usual applecart for no good reason isn't unreasonable.