4 ms·

I glanced at motor vehicle fatality rates in the U.S. previously and didn't see a clear impact of seat belt laws myself, instead the major drops seem to line up

I glanced at motor vehicle fatality rates in the U.S. previously and didn't see a clear impact of seat belt laws myself, instead the major drops seem to line up with economic recessions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35833165 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35833165

derbOac 3y ago
This is getting tangential but it's striking to me how fatality rates went up during the pandemic. You can see the dips during previous recessions and energy crises like you're saying, and I'd expect something similar during the pandemic, but it went the other way.
- brewdad 3y ago
  People were bored sitting at home. Getting out in your car and driving stupidly fast on empty roads was one way to alleviate that boredom. My 25mph road regularly became a drag strip.
  - dr_orpheus 3y ago
    Seems likely, I had to keep going to work in person during COVID and my commute to work became very fast, and not just because of the empty roads. I also wonder if there was an uptick in fatality as people started returning to work and those used to speeding down an empty road were suddenly confronted with traffic. Also reminds me of some statistics I saw back in drivers ed class. I don't remember the exact stats, but in winter months there were significantly more crashes due to inclement weather/poor visibility as one might expect. But there were more fatal crashes in summer because people drive faster when they have clear conditions and line of sight.
- lostlogin 3y ago
  > fatality rates went up during the pandemic. They went down during lockdown in some places. I think the severity of lockdown is likely related, and New Zealand’s was more severe than most. https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/12/31/sad-and-disappointing-2020-road-toll-still-high-despite-lockdown-lulls/ https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/12/31/sad-and-disappointing-202...
JonChesterfield 3y ago
This is attributed to people driving at a fixed perceived level of risk. The explanation goes: seatbelt makes you safer, so it doesn't matter as much whether you crash, so you can increase speed or recklessness to get back to the same perceived risk threshold. Seatbelt introduction is used as a case study in behaviour in response to risk. I remember there was one significant dip in the fatality curve, which turned out to line up with a period where people were told to drive on the other side of the road to usual, and thus proceeded more cautiously for a time.
- maxwell 3y ago
  Instead of driving on the right or w̶r̶o̶n̶g̶left side of the road, maybe for safety we should be switching it up every ten to twenty years, with shiftable steering wheels to switch driver sides, or some of these puppies: https://www.thedrive.com/news/37520/these-trick-pulley-systems-are-what-mail-carriers-use-to-make-their-cars-right-hand-drive https://www.thedrive.com/news/37520/these-trick-pulley-syste...
loloquwowndueo 3y ago
That’s likely because people do not instantly start obeying the law the moment it’s instituted - takes time to break a habit and lax enforcement (honestly how many people do you know who were pulled over for not wearing a seatbelt) would result in no noticeable cliff in fatalities. Instead it probably gets absorbed in the gradual fatality reduction you see over time.
- maxwell 3y ago
  Good point, seat belt utilization is impossible to track accurately (until in-car surveillance cameras are fully rolled out), and likely varies widely generationally, regionally, etc.
  - neuronexmachina 3y ago
    US's NHTSA has stats on belt use rate from 1983-2017 based on the National Occupant Protection Use Survey: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_use_rates_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_use_rates_in_the_Uni...
    - viraptor 3y ago
      ~10% not using seatbelts in 2017 is extremely surprising to me. I really thought it would be ~1%.
      - mrguyorama 3y ago
        Humans are terrible at risk management and there is still a stupidly large contingent of people who think seat belt laws are "nanny state", or that seat belts are "more dangerous" and they'd "rather be thrown clear in an accident" Basically a lot of people operate on cartoon logic.
      - cogman10 3y ago
        There's a bunch of people that will say "It's none of the government's business if I wear a seatbelt or not, so I'm not going to in protest of the nanny state"

derbOac 3y ago

This is getting tangential but it's striking to me how fatality rates went up during the pandemic. You can see the dips during previous recessions and energy crises like you're saying, and I'd expect something similar during the pandemic, but it went the other way.

brewdad 3y ago
People were bored sitting at home. Getting out in your car and driving stupidly fast on empty roads was one way to alleviate that boredom. My 25mph road regularly became a drag strip.
- dr_orpheus 3y ago
  Seems likely, I had to keep going to work in person during COVID and my commute to work became very fast, and not just because of the empty roads. I also wonder if there was an uptick in fatality as people started returning to work and those used to speeding down an empty road were suddenly confronted with traffic. Also reminds me of some statistics I saw back in drivers ed class. I don't remember the exact stats, but in winter months there were significantly more crashes due to inclement weather/poor visibility as one might expect. But there were more fatal crashes in summer because people drive faster when they have clear conditions and line of sight.
lostlogin 3y ago
> fatality rates went up during the pandemic. They went down during lockdown in some places. I think the severity of lockdown is likely related, and New Zealand’s was more severe than most. https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/12/31/sad-and-disappointing-2020-road-toll-still-high-despite-lockdown-lulls/ https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/12/31/sad-and-disappointing-202...

JonChesterfield 3y ago

This is attributed to people driving at a fixed perceived level of risk. The explanation goes: seatbelt makes you safer, so it doesn't matter as much whether you crash, so you can increase speed or recklessness to get back to the same perceived risk threshold. Seatbelt introduction is used as a case study in behaviour in response to risk. I remember there was one significant dip in the fatality curve, which turned out to line up with a period where people were told to drive on the other side of the road to usual, and thus proceeded more cautiously for a time.

maxwell 3y ago
Instead of driving on the right or w̶r̶o̶n̶g̶left side of the road, maybe for safety we should be switching it up every ten to twenty years, with shiftable steering wheels to switch driver sides, or some of these puppies: https://www.thedrive.com/news/37520/these-trick-pulley-systems-are-what-mail-carriers-use-to-make-their-cars-right-hand-drive https://www.thedrive.com/news/37520/these-trick-pulley-syste...

loloquwowndueo 3y ago

That’s likely because people do not instantly start obeying the law the moment it’s instituted - takes time to break a habit and lax enforcement (honestly how many people do you know who were pulled over for not wearing a seatbelt) would result in no noticeable cliff in fatalities. Instead it probably gets absorbed in the gradual fatality reduction you see over time.

maxwell 3y ago
Good point, seat belt utilization is impossible to track accurately (until in-car surveillance cameras are fully rolled out), and likely varies widely generationally, regionally, etc.
- neuronexmachina 3y ago
  US's NHTSA has stats on belt use rate from 1983-2017 based on the National Occupant Protection Use Survey: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_use_rates_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_use_rates_in_the_Uni...
  - viraptor 3y ago
    ~10% not using seatbelts in 2017 is extremely surprising to me. I really thought it would be ~1%.
    - mrguyorama 3y ago
      Humans are terrible at risk management and there is still a stupidly large contingent of people who think seat belt laws are "nanny state", or that seat belts are "more dangerous" and they'd "rather be thrown clear in an accident" Basically a lot of people operate on cartoon logic.
    - cogman10 3y ago
      There's a bunch of people that will say "It's none of the government's business if I wear a seatbelt or not, so I'm not going to in protest of the nanny state"