I think they will announce a small-ish one-off dividend, a long-term dividend yield target, and a stock split. For context, Microsoft had $43B in cash when it

I think they will announce a small-ish one-off dividend, a long-term dividend yield target, and a stock split. For context, Microsoft had $43B in cash when it issued its first dividend, which was a total of $900M (it also split its stock at the time, which Apple may also do). It paid another dividend a year later, a bit larger, and has raised their yield a few times (not moving the stock much). Cisco's first dividend was when they had $40B in cash and it was also only worth a couple of points. For dividend distribution purposes, Apple has $100B+, 66% of which is not in the USA (not bad, it is 90% for Microsoft and Cisco). They can easily afford a one-off 2-3 point dividend tomorrow and then announce a regular dividend yield of 2-3 points again without repatriating any cash. I doubt it will be larger than a few points, which means that the stock will likely fall sharply tomorrow (as it did with both Cisco and Microsoft) as it seems that the market is expecting a much larger dividend. Note: it is possible to issue a larger dividend without repatriating overseas assets by borrowing against those foreign assets, but I doubt they would do that.