I found this study, which sort of makes this claim with a lot of qualifications: https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973 https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973.

I found this study, which sort of makes this claim with a lot of qualifications: https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973 https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973. It's comparing Autopilot to "normal" Tesla driving, which still includes auto-braking, blind spot warnings, etc. It is still based on Tesla's own data and has to make a ton of assumptions, but it seems like they did the best they could. > By correcting for roadway usage differences between the Autopilot and active safety only data, much of the crash reduction seen by vehicles using Autopilot appears to be explained by lower crash rates experienced on freeways. While the raw crash rate shows an average 43% reduction in crash rate for Autopilot compared to active safety only, this improvement is only 10% after controlling for different rates of freeway driving. Correcting for age demographics likewise produced an 11% increase in the estimated crash rate. Several other factors may explain difference in safety rates of new vehicle technologies based on who is using them, where they are being used, and when they are being used. Some safety features cannot be used in rain or snow, for example, which may bias the data towards clear weather and lower crash rates generally. In another example, drivers often disengage Autopilot to change lanes or prepare to exit a freeway (Morando et al., 2020), both areas of increased crash risk. While Tesla includes crashes where Autopilot was deactivated less than five seconds prior to impact, there remains a potential for Autopilot use to be biased towards safer, within-lane driving. With more data regarding not only the crashes but also the use of vehicle technologies can allow for more accurate and thorough assessments of vehicle safety benefits.