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I'm a big urbanist (that also worked on AVs for a couple years), haven't owned a car for almost all of my adult life, and view it as a step in the right directi
by conjecTech 3y ago
I'm a big urbanist (that also worked on AVs for a couple years), haven't owned a car for almost all of my adult life, and view it as a step in the right direction for a few reasons.
1 - I think the impact of parking is actually more insidious and detrimental than roads by themselves. AVs will have high utilization of a much smaller pool of vehicles and remove the need for the huge parking lots we currently have. The land-use issues from parking are perhaps the largest impediment (together with the requirements/zoning) to the density which would allow transit to outcompete private cars.
2 - The centralization of wealth is one thing, but the real economies of fewer, newer vehicles will be a boon for almost everyone. The cost of the automobile operation is about 1/4 of the average uber fare. That is a lot of room for price compression. Perhaps more will be going to a large corporation, but there will be a huge consumer surplus as well.
3 - The reduction in the size of the car fleet will likely reduce the lobbying power of the automobile industry, which may in turn lead to changes to the urban environment(bike lanes, transit expansions) which will likely shift mode share away from cars.
- froidpink 3y agoWouldn't the reduction in cost of rides vs Uber create massive demand for self-driving car rides, increasing congestion?
- conjecTech 3y agoThere will definitely be induced demand. Most people don't just choose travel mode based on cost though. Travel time/convenience is the biggest factor, and AVs will probably not improve those significantly. The reality is that walking/biking/transit aren't competitive in terms of convenience in most US cities right now. If taking the train is faster than driving, people will do it. That is the fundamental issue that needs to be fixed to allow other options to be successful, and I view killing people's obsession with parking as the largest step in that direction.