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Not interested in commenting on the rest but do we have more cancer or are we better at detecting cancer?

by pb7 3y ago

Retric 3y ago
No both the absolute and rate of of cancers has increased. Even if you ignore environmental factors older people get more cancer and we have more older people today. Age adjusted cancer rates for some kinds of cancers have dropped because fewer people smoke etc, but it’s not universal across all cancers. We do also detect more cancers early, but that also makes cancer treatment look better. Aka 5 year survival rates look better when you start the clock sooner.
- pb7 3y ago
  You touch upon it in your comment and giving it zero weight for some reason: you can’t develop most types of cancer if you die at 30 (extreme example).
  - Retric 3y ago
    Because it’s irrelevant when the global age adjusted cancer rates are increasing overall. An increasing number of people under 30 are developing cancer. America is only 4% of global population, if you want a better picture look at China and India which have both skyrocketed pollution levels recently.
prepend 3y ago
Also we live longer so it’s more likely to detect and die from cancer. Even over 100 years ago is true incidence of cancer higher? Not to mention why we would think we have more cancer now than 1000 years ago. Or perhaps we have more cancer but that’s because people aren’t dying of other things first, so it doesn’t matter we have more cancer. This is the kind of counterproductive examples I find people arguing about. Of course there are more vehicle accidents now, but that’s because there’s more people driving, not that cars are more dangerous.
- kn0where 3y ago
  Cars have absolutely gotten more dangerous as they’ve increased in size — for anyone outside of one.
  - prepend 3y ago
    Yet vehicle mortality rate has decreased [0] and pedestrian mortality rate is a bit trickier as over the past 40 years it dropped and then climbed back to where it was in absolute numbers [1]. So it’s definitely less dangerous based on the rate of drivers, passengers and pedestrians who die each year. Please share any better metrics you like for showing increase in danger. [0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearly-snapshot#yearly-snapshot https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearl... [1] https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/pedestrian-deaths-cars-suvs-roads-unsafe https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/pedestrian-deaths-cars-suvs...

Not interested in commenting on the rest but do we have more cancer or are we better at detecting cancer?

by pb7 3y ago

Not interested in commenting on the rest but do we have more cancer or are we better at detecting cancer?

No both the absolute and rate of of cancers has increased. Even if you ignore environmental factors older people get more cancer and we have more older people today. Age adjusted cancer rates for some kinds of cancers have dropped because fewer people smoke etc, but it’s not universal across all cancers. We do also detect more cancers early, but that also makes cancer treatment look better. Aka 5 year survival rates look better when you start the clock sooner.

pb7 3y ago
You touch upon it in your comment and giving it zero weight for some reason: you can’t develop most types of cancer if you die at 30 (extreme example).
- Retric 3y ago
  Because it’s irrelevant when the global age adjusted cancer rates are increasing overall. An increasing number of people under 30 are developing cancer. America is only 4% of global population, if you want a better picture look at China and India which have both skyrocketed pollution levels recently.

prepend 3y ago

Also we live longer so it’s more likely to detect and die from cancer. Even over 100 years ago is true incidence of cancer higher? Not to mention why we would think we have more cancer now than 1000 years ago. Or perhaps we have more cancer but that’s because people aren’t dying of other things first, so it doesn’t matter we have more cancer. This is the kind of counterproductive examples I find people arguing about. Of course there are more vehicle accidents now, but that’s because there’s more people driving, not that cars are more dangerous.

kn0where 3y ago
Cars have absolutely gotten more dangerous as they’ve increased in size — for anyone outside of one.
- prepend 3y ago
  Yet vehicle mortality rate has decreased [0] and pedestrian mortality rate is a bit trickier as over the past 40 years it dropped and then climbed back to where it was in absolute numbers [1]. So it’s definitely less dangerous based on the rate of drivers, passengers and pedestrians who die each year. Please share any better metrics you like for showing increase in danger. [0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearly-snapshot#yearly-snapshot https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearl... [1] https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/pedestrian-deaths-cars-suvs-roads-unsafe https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/pedestrian-deaths-cars-suvs...