3 ms·

Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There's a largely unexamined assumption built into capitalism

Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There's a largely unexamined assumption built into capitalism that there exists a market clearing wage where humans will be incentivized to provide labor and owners will reap a profit. But what if that assumption is breaking down? My most "valuable" skill is writing software, but it may soon be the case that ChatGPT 9 can do that much better and cheaper than me. What happens when we have nothing profitable to offer capitalism?

ghaff 3y ago
>Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There are a ton of services that I'd be happy to have people perform for me, but there's some upper limit to what I'm willing/able to pay. This applies directly or through some (capitalist) intermediary. If it's going to cost me $1,000 for you to cut my lawn, I'll either do it myself or just let it grow.
- ForHackernews 3y ago
  Exactly. So what happens when the amount they're willing to pay is much lower than what it costs to live? If the robo lawnmowers will cut grass (and the occasional hand or foot) for $1/hour, what happens to the people who work as landscapers? Maybe you could argue they'll shift higher up the value chain, designing gardens or planting flowers and we'll all have prettier gardens... but I'm not sure the story of the last 50 years has been a race to the top.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    The profits have raced to the top, but the net wealth generated has also been massive. This is hopeful because a few gradual policy changes over the decades could keep the wealth creation part and help with the distribution part. You can’t distribute what’s not there.
3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
That’s indeed one of many ways people are driven out a job market that seemingly is hungry for jobs. Posting unrealistic job offers can be a way to cover legal requirements or excuse yourself for automating everything. Or it can be business owners legitimately searching the space if humans can provide better value than machines, and increasingly finding that… no. I wonder what would happen if people kept posting jobs for human calculators up to 2023. “Must work without sleep, perform all calculations up to at least 9 digits, make no mistakes and provide instant answers. Management occasionally may curse and be violent towards the calculator, when the numbers are bad for business (must keep quiet and take it). Salary: $12 (per year)”.
rufus_foreman 3y ago
"A shortage, in economic terms, is a condition where the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied at the market price" -- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortage.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortage.asp We have a labor shortage. Economists don't assume that markets will clear. There are many reasons why they often don't. Given that wages are about as high as they have ever been in our lifetimes, and unemployment is about as low as it has ever been in our lifetimes, it is an odd time to go Luddite.
- 3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
  Why keep stressing about wages being high? Do you people not understand basic inflation? At any point in time wages will always be highest they’ve ever been. In many places in the US, three years ago $100 bought you a week’s worth of food. Now it buys you a day’s worth. Maybe two. Even in poor countries food has 3x in prices in two years. Jobs are high because everyone has to work, wife, husband, even children in some cases, and many people take two jobs. While more and more don’t ever register at the bureau so they fall off the system. That’s your utopia?
  - rendang 3y ago
    The poster you're replying to means that inflation-adjusted wages are roughly at an all time high, which is true: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB Aside from the distortion from the pandemic unemployment wave, people make more now than ever before. All of this data is publicly accessible. No, food has not inflated 3.5x, and food is also a pretty small portion of Americans' spending.

ghaff 3y ago

>Do we have a labor shortage, or do we have a shortage at the wages companies are prepared to pay? There are a ton of services that I'd be happy to have people perform for me, but there's some upper limit to what I'm willing/able to pay. This applies directly or through some (capitalist) intermediary. If it's going to cost me $1,000 for you to cut my lawn, I'll either do it myself or just let it grow.

ForHackernews 3y ago
Exactly. So what happens when the amount they're willing to pay is much lower than what it costs to live? If the robo lawnmowers will cut grass (and the occasional hand or foot) for $1/hour, what happens to the people who work as landscapers? Maybe you could argue they'll shift higher up the value chain, designing gardens or planting flowers and we'll all have prettier gardens... but I'm not sure the story of the last 50 years has been a race to the top.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  The profits have raced to the top, but the net wealth generated has also been massive. This is hopeful because a few gradual policy changes over the decades could keep the wealth creation part and help with the distribution part. You can’t distribute what’s not there.

3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago

That’s indeed one of many ways people are driven out a job market that seemingly is hungry for jobs. Posting unrealistic job offers can be a way to cover legal requirements or excuse yourself for automating everything. Or it can be business owners legitimately searching the space if humans can provide better value than machines, and increasingly finding that… no. I wonder what would happen if people kept posting jobs for human calculators up to 2023. “Must work without sleep, perform all calculations up to at least 9 digits, make no mistakes and provide instant answers. Management occasionally may curse and be violent towards the calculator, when the numbers are bad for business (must keep quiet and take it). Salary: $12 (per year)”.

rufus_foreman 3y ago

"A shortage, in economic terms, is a condition where the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied at the market price" -- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortage.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortage.asp We have a labor shortage. Economists don't assume that markets will clear. There are many reasons why they often don't. Given that wages are about as high as they have ever been in our lifetimes, and unemployment is about as low as it has ever been in our lifetimes, it is an odd time to go Luddite.

3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
Why keep stressing about wages being high? Do you people not understand basic inflation? At any point in time wages will always be highest they’ve ever been. In many places in the US, three years ago $100 bought you a week’s worth of food. Now it buys you a day’s worth. Maybe two. Even in poor countries food has 3x in prices in two years. Jobs are high because everyone has to work, wife, husband, even children in some cases, and many people take two jobs. While more and more don’t ever register at the bureau so they fall off the system. That’s your utopia?
- rendang 3y ago
  The poster you're replying to means that inflation-adjusted wages are roughly at an all time high, which is true: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB Aside from the distortion from the pandemic unemployment wave, people make more now than ever before. All of this data is publicly accessible. No, food has not inflated 3.5x, and food is also a pretty small portion of Americans' spending.