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I am confused by your first link. The vote was in 2016. Looking for 2015 to now, it clearly shows the UK having achieved 0% growth (in GDP per capita) since 20

I am confused by your first link. The vote was in 2016. Looking for 2015 to now, it clearly shows the UK having achieved 0% growth (in GDP per capita) since 2015. Literally all the other countries and the EU as a whole out performed us. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&stackMode=relative&time=2015..latest&country=GBR~OWID_EU27~DEU~FRA~ESP~ITA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?... I think the ability to look at data like this and come to completely different conclusions perfectly sums up the divide between brexiteer (I assume you are, I hope that is ok?) And remoaners like me.

mike_hearn 3y ago
I am confused by your conclusions :) The reason growth is zero in your graph since 2015 is because lockdowns and other pandemic mitigations (+knockon inflation) were so destructive. It went from +4% from a 2015 baseline to -6%, and the "rebound" only recovered half of what had been lost. This is up to 2021, see below. Growth before and after the Brexit vote was entirely unaffected by it, so it's impossible to claim that the vote itself led to any economic impact. N.B. the Treasury forecast a recession that'd destroy 500,000-800,000 jobs before any legal changes had been made at all, just from the uncertainty created by the vote. Clearly very wrong, therefore they don't really have the ability to do this type of economic forecasting and nor were they aware of this fact. So all claims about Brexit economic impact have to be taken with an enormous pinch of salt because economics, as a profession, doesn't have the claimed level of understanding. Alternatively, as the publicly voiced doubt by Kruger indicates, they know they can't make such predictions but are engaging in "motivated reasoning". Anyway, that lack of any impact from the vote is why you'd have to look for impact in 2020/2021. But how can anyone separate out the different variables there? You'd have needed the economic situation to be perfectly normal in all other European countries, with Brexit the only thing that changed, to create a comparable situation. > Literally all the other countries and the EU as a whole out performed us. That data ends in 2021, when the UK was still very much killing itself with COVID mitigations. A more up to date graph tells a different story: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp... https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/united-kingdom/gdp... In 2022 UK growth rate was 4.1% - higher than the pre-Brexit baseline and much higher than Germany which returned to normal growth rates. So by playing this game I could argue that Brexit has clearly unleashed the Great British Economy. But I wouldn't do that because, again, Brexit is small potatoes next to the chaos unleashed by the public health community. Also at the level of these tiny differences GDP gets affected by things like bank holidays for the King's Coronation and other trivia. Fundamentally, there's very little difference between the different European economies at this point. They are all vastly outclassed by what's happening in the USA. Arguing over Brexit is a pointless distraction given it apparently has such a tiny impact that it can't even be separated from other factors, and even if you assume otherwise, avoiding it could only have kept the UK in line with other Euro-area economies. But the UK needs to be matching the USA, not France or Germany.

mike_hearn 3y ago

I am confused by your conclusions :) The reason growth is zero in your graph since 2015 is because lockdowns and other pandemic mitigations (+knockon inflation) were so destructive. It went from +4% from a 2015 baseline to -6%, and the "rebound" only recovered half of what had been lost. This is up to 2021, see below. Growth before and after the Brexit vote was entirely unaffected by it, so it's impossible to claim that the vote itself led to any economic impact. N.B. the Treasury forecast a recession that'd destroy 500,000-800,000 jobs before any legal changes had been made at all, just from the uncertainty created by the vote. Clearly very wrong, therefore they don't really have the ability to do this type of economic forecasting and nor were they aware of this fact. So all claims about Brexit economic impact have to be taken with an enormous pinch of salt because economics, as a profession, doesn't have the claimed level of understanding. Alternatively, as the publicly voiced doubt by Kruger indicates, they know they can't make such predictions but are engaging in "motivated reasoning". Anyway, that lack of any impact from the vote is why you'd have to look for impact in 2020/2021. But how can anyone separate out the different variables there? You'd have needed the economic situation to be perfectly normal in all other European countries, with Brexit the only thing that changed, to create a comparable situation. > Literally all the other countries and the EU as a whole out performed us. That data ends in 2021, when the UK was still very much killing itself with COVID mitigations. A more up to date graph tells a different story: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp... https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/united-kingdom/gdp... In 2022 UK growth rate was 4.1% - higher than the pre-Brexit baseline and much higher than Germany which returned to normal growth rates. So by playing this game I could argue that Brexit has clearly unleashed the Great British Economy. But I wouldn't do that because, again, Brexit is small potatoes next to the chaos unleashed by the public health community. Also at the level of these tiny differences GDP gets affected by things like bank holidays for the King's Coronation and other trivia. Fundamentally, there's very little difference between the different European economies at this point. They are all vastly outclassed by what's happening in the USA. Arguing over Brexit is a pointless distraction given it apparently has such a tiny impact that it can't even be separated from other factors, and even if you assume otherwise, avoiding it could only have kept the UK in line with other Euro-area economies. But the UK needs to be matching the USA, not France or Germany.