IMO, this could be discussed so much more rigorously... I think we have the framework for it. All work exploits some gradient of energy, i.e. a potential diffe

IMO, this could be discussed so much more rigorously... I think we have the framework for it. All work exploits some gradient of energy, i.e. a potential difference. Any "innovation" is a discovery of some such gradient. As the gradient is exploited, the difference in potential decreases. The innovation loses its potential return on investment. The most basic reason for this is that the simplest/least costly methods for exploiting the difference will be the most likely to be discovered. Our societies organize around these processes for exploiting gradients. Greater influence is given to those who can do the most work. That influence directs future collective investments. Those with the influence will use it to increase investment in the source of their profit... extraction of work from the same gradient which they've been exploiting. Eventually that gradient is exploited beyond an positive return on investment. All low-hanging fruit has been consumed. There is no longer investment available for finding other gradients along which work can be done and those with influence use that influence to extract resources from other members of the society since their external gradient no longer exists. Their influence increases in proportion to the other members' and the society eventually eats itself. IMO there's the basis for a quantitative model in there. The conclusions are total speculation, but the basic foundations I think are valid. (They mostly come from a combo of information theory, joseph tainter's collapse of complex society, as well as "incomplete nature" by terrence deacon). But of course we don't have the money available for investigation into such things :/ Funding seems to only be available for models that bolster existing sources of profit. https://spacechimplife.com/theories-of-historical-change/ https://spacechimplife.com/theories-of-historical-change/