3 ms·

We're in the overshoot, and that will inevitably bring stagnation and decline, as the carrying capacity of the environment starts to decline. The Club of Rome

by myshpa 3y ago

We're in the overshoot, and that will inevitably bring stagnation and decline, as the carrying capacity of the environment starts to decline. The Club of Rome predicted this in 1972. Recent reviews of their work have confirmed the 'business as usual' trend, suggesting it's about to play out in the next few decades.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
goatlover 3y ago
The carrying capacity of the environment isn't fixed, or this would have happened in the 60s and 70s as originally predicted. Technology and policies change the carrying capacity. We don't have to have decline with the right approach. The sun provides more than enough energy, fusion and superconductivity breakthroughs would be huge as well.
- myshpa 3y ago
  > The carrying capacity of the environment isn't fixed True, it's being degraded. > or this would have happened in the 60s and 70s as originally predicted We've entered the overshoot in the 1980s (+-), as predicted. What's on the horizon is the collapse of the carrying capacity. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-16/revisiting-the-limits-to-growth/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-16/revisiting-the... https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/yale-publication.pdf https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/y... "I conducted a data update to Limits to Growth (LtG), best known from the 1972 bestseller that forecasted a scenario of global societal collapse occurring around the present time if humanity did not alter its priorities. Empirical data comparisons since then indicated that the world was still heading for collapse. ... I found that the scenarios aligned closely with observed global data, which is a testament to the LtG work done decades ago. The two scenarios aligning most closely indicate a halt in growth over the next decade or so, which puts into question the usability of continuous growth as humanity’s goal in the 21st century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines, but only one—the scenario in which declines are caused by pollution, including greenhouse gas pollution—depicts a collapse pattern. The scenario with the smallest declines aligned least with empirical data, however, absolute differences were rarely big and sometimes insignificant. This suggests that it’s almost, but not yet, too late for society to change course." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332655753_Limits_Revisited-A_review_of_the_limits_to_growth_debate_A_report_to_the_All-Party_Parliamentary_Group_on_LImits_to_Growth https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332655753_Limits_Re... "We unravel the arguments that have raged for forty years in its aftermath and explore more recent findings which relate to the original hypothesis. There is unsettling evidence that society is still following the ‘standard run’ of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards. Detailed recent studies suggests that production of some key resources may only be decades away. Certain other limits to growth – less visible in the 1972 report – present equally pressing challenges to modern society. We highlight, in particular, recent work on our proximity to ‘planetary boundaries’ and illustrate this through the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change. We also explore the economic challenge of a ‘secular stagnation’. If the Club of Rome is right, the next few decades are decisive." > Technology and policies change the carrying capacity Do you mean the 'green revolution' which resulted in biodiversity loss, soil degradation and erosion, eutrophication, oceanic dead zones, and deforestation? That's not an increase in carrying capacity; rather, it's a temporary extension beyond all safe boundaries leading to a much larger catastrophe. > We don't have to have decline with the right approach Do you see anything that would suggest we're on the right track? > The sun .... fusion and superconductivity ... You seem to think it's only about fossil fuels / energy. It's not... In my view, tipping points, deforestation (== droughts) and dwindling biodiversity are the main problems ahead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries#Nine_boundaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries#Nine_boun... https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/
  - goatlover 3y ago
    With enough energy, we could build giant arcoligies, rewild rural areas, suck large amounts of CO2 out of the atmosphere, clean up plastic pollution, etc. Energy is the ultimate limiting factor for human civilization. The biosphere can be repaired or even extended.
    - myshpa 3y ago
      We don't have the time. > The biosphere can be repaired or even extended Yes, by letting it be. We can't even do that.

by myshpa 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

goatlover 3y ago

The carrying capacity of the environment isn't fixed, or this would have happened in the 60s and 70s as originally predicted. Technology and policies change the carrying capacity. We don't have to have decline with the right approach. The sun provides more than enough energy, fusion and superconductivity breakthroughs would be huge as well.

myshpa 3y ago
> The carrying capacity of the environment isn't fixed True, it's being degraded. > or this would have happened in the 60s and 70s as originally predicted We've entered the overshoot in the 1980s (+-), as predicted. What's on the horizon is the collapse of the carrying capacity. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-16/revisiting-the-limits-to-growth/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-16/revisiting-the... https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/yale-publication.pdf https://advisory.kpmg.us/content/dam/advisory/en/pdfs/2021/y... "I conducted a data update to Limits to Growth (LtG), best known from the 1972 bestseller that forecasted a scenario of global societal collapse occurring around the present time if humanity did not alter its priorities. Empirical data comparisons since then indicated that the world was still heading for collapse. ... I found that the scenarios aligned closely with observed global data, which is a testament to the LtG work done decades ago. The two scenarios aligning most closely indicate a halt in growth over the next decade or so, which puts into question the usability of continuous growth as humanity’s goal in the 21st century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines, but only one—the scenario in which declines are caused by pollution, including greenhouse gas pollution—depicts a collapse pattern. The scenario with the smallest declines aligned least with empirical data, however, absolute differences were rarely big and sometimes insignificant. This suggests that it’s almost, but not yet, too late for society to change course." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332655753_Limits_Revisited-A_review_of_the_limits_to_growth_debate_A_report_to_the_All-Party_Parliamentary_Group_on_LImits_to_Growth https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332655753_Limits_Re... "We unravel the arguments that have raged for forty years in its aftermath and explore more recent findings which relate to the original hypothesis. There is unsettling evidence that society is still following the ‘standard run’ of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards. Detailed recent studies suggests that production of some key resources may only be decades away. Certain other limits to growth – less visible in the 1972 report – present equally pressing challenges to modern society. We highlight, in particular, recent work on our proximity to ‘planetary boundaries’ and illustrate this through the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change. We also explore the economic challenge of a ‘secular stagnation’. If the Club of Rome is right, the next few decades are decisive." > Technology and policies change the carrying capacity Do you mean the 'green revolution' which resulted in biodiversity loss, soil degradation and erosion, eutrophication, oceanic dead zones, and deforestation? That's not an increase in carrying capacity; rather, it's a temporary extension beyond all safe boundaries leading to a much larger catastrophe. > We don't have to have decline with the right approach Do you see anything that would suggest we're on the right track? > The sun .... fusion and superconductivity ... You seem to think it's only about fossil fuels / energy. It's not... In my view, tipping points, deforestation (== droughts) and dwindling biodiversity are the main problems ahead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries#Nine_boundaries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries#Nine_boun... https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/
- goatlover 3y ago
  With enough energy, we could build giant arcoligies, rewild rural areas, suck large amounts of CO2 out of the atmosphere, clean up plastic pollution, etc. Energy is the ultimate limiting factor for human civilization. The biosphere can be repaired or even extended.
  - myshpa 3y ago
    We don't have the time. > The biosphere can be repaired or even extended Yes, by letting it be. We can't even do that.