While funny, I think that misses the point. I see the value here being: when you can’t understand the causal relationships for success, use the causal relation

While funny, I think that misses the point. I see the value here being: when you can’t understand the causal relationships for success, use the causal relationships for failure that you can understand and then avoid specific failure modes. “Friend gives generally bad advice” is not that kind of a clear causal relationship.